Lucky-Fallacy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$26

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

99.0%

Resolved

297

Trades

299

lifetime

Volume

$3.36K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-09

last 11-06 10:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 225 days

Categories

Other

95% 100% -$2

Politics

5% 89% -$24

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on November 6?	No		+9	$9	100¢	$9	+$0	11-06 10:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$26	27	+27	No	-$26	05-15 05:00
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on May 2?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	05-02 14:17
Trump out as President by April 30?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	04-30 08:50
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	1	$25	26	+26	Yes	+$1	05-03 03:34
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-29 13:00
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 28?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-28 08:37
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 27?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-28 01:45
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 27?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-27 08:14
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 26?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-27 01:39
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on April 26?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-26 09:16
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 25?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-25 12:40
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	04-24 09:05
highest temperature in tokyo on april 23 2026 19c	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-23 07:20
highest temperature in jakarta on april 22 2026 35c	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-22 10:17
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	1	$24	25	+25	No	+$1	04-21 15:52
highest temperature in wellington on april 21 2026 15corhigher	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-21 06:26
highest temperature in buenos aires on april 20 2026 20c	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-21 01:22
highest temperature in karachi on april 20 2026 34c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-20 16:47
highest temperature in wellington on april 20 2026 14c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-20 06:15
highest temperature in lucknow on april 19 2026 42c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-19 16:09
highest temperature in wellington on april 19 2026 18c	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-19 05:41
highest temperature in istanbul on april 18 2026 14c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-18 15:23
highest temperature in wellington on april 18 2026 18c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-18 08:07
highest temperature in manila on april 17 2026 35c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-17 10:20
highest temperature in seattle on april 16 2026 54 55f	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-17 03:47
highest temperature in guangzhou on april 16 2026 31c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-16 12:06
highest temperature in los angeles on april 15 2026 68 69f	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-16 05:53
highest temperature in istanbul on april 15 2026 18c	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-15 14:47
highest temperature in wellington on april 15 2026 19c	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-15 06:51
highest temperature in toronto on april 14 2026 23c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-15 03:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 10:02:46	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on November 6?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x62491b…
11-05 00:29:55	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C or below on November 5?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8e8f2c…
11-03 17:54:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on November 4?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x98a001…
11-03 07:40:49	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on November 3?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x23a837…
11-02 10:11:48	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x7c3e31…
11-01 07:16:04	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on November 1?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x7a04d1…
10-31 07:37:48	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on October 31?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xd20557…
10-30 09:03:22	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x4da802…
10-29 07:12:52	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on October 29?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xc9a36e…
10-28 15:26:07	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on October 28?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xc6178f…
10-27 16:04:02	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C or below on October 28?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xdb95e5…
10-27 07:54:29	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$8	0xfae950…
10-26 05:30:17	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on October 26?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa57729…
10-24 06:49:45	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on October 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x149c7c…
10-22 09:51:23	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb11384…
10-20 04:36:05	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on October 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd4a558…
10-19 06:26:17	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on October 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x824668…
10-18 07:27:24	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on October 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x27c1e4…
10-17 07:20:20	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf3ba6c…
10-16 05:10:54	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2bea72…
10-15 06:36:17	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe66b9b…
10-14 07:10:13	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xac796f…
10-13 14:00:29	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x035088…
10-13 04:18:45	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcbc8cc…
10-12 04:24:02	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on October 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbaec7a…
10-11 03:11:51	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or below on October 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb7dd8a…
10-08 05:14:37	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xaf87cb…
10-07 08:51:15	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xca74c1…
10-06 07:11:37	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa954cd…
10-04 07:54:55	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on October 4?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0246b0…
10-03 03:00:48	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on October 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x75cf92…
10-02 07:20:21	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 2?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb9b928…
10-01 07:49:20	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 1?	No	SELL	166	0¢	$0	0x8b187e…
10-01 07:15:24	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 1?	No	BUY	166	5¢	$8	0xdc80a6…
09-30 07:37:36	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x538234…
09-29 07:12:23	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x29ed10…
09-28 08:13:33	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd5cb3d…
09-27 02:27:54	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on September 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x915cfe…
09-25 07:26:00	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on September 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x98129d…
09-24 06:38:27	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on September 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x12f211…
09-23 05:14:04	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on September 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc2fb4c…
09-22 06:12:45	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on September 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x32b937…
09-21 08:19:27	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on September 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbac80b…
09-20 03:06:06	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 63°F or below on September 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7f48a2…
09-19 06:47:30	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcac8f5…
09-18 01:09:28	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on September 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9d4ce9…
09-17 01:07:16	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on September 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3e4f56…
09-16 08:43:09	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on September 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8b7f7d…
09-15 23:33:34	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on September 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x68a81e…
09-15 02:26:25	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on September 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe6a1a3…
09-14 00:52:43	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on September 13?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd4262f…
09-13 12:49:13	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on September 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xde37e3…
09-12 07:27:15	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on September 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa2c4b9…
09-11 01:13:00	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on September 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1a1b04…
09-10 01:31:04	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on September 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc13d8b…
09-09 00:59:46	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on September 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc691e0…
09-08 01:06:24	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xac4c99…
09-07 01:49:21	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on September 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x22648e…
09-06 01:13:28	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on September 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfd3416…
09-05 09:19:10	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc61cc0…
09-04 08:17:18	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on September 4?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x177e3f…
09-03 01:26:36	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on September 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x73a7e6…
09-01 01:23:00	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on August 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x138a47…
08-30 00:13:16	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf55909…
08-29 05:49:16	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0db398…
08-28 01:28:54	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on August 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x25abae…
08-27 01:17:00	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on August 27?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xdb9369…
08-26 02:01:09	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x641e01…
08-25 06:41:15	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe230e6…
08-24 07:17:06	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x23c2f1…
08-23 07:11:01	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbb352a…
08-22 06:28:21	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on August 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd70be0…
08-21 01:27:00	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1ec7dc…
08-20 05:32:54	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x96251b…
08-19 07:20:37	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc4a9b5…
08-18 00:18:28	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on August 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9ffe49…
08-17 06:05:55	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x13f799…
08-16 01:44:16	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on August 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x99a9bd…
08-15 02:32:52	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5e0337…
08-14 01:21:18	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x73d0de…
08-13 00:25:46	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on August 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3bb828…
08-12 06:46:42	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x615e56…
08-11 00:19:58	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on August 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf22581…
08-10 00:22:06	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7dd496…
08-09 07:44:39	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf44bf3…
08-09 00:26:57	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8d06a3…
08-08 00:18:45	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4e769a…
08-07 00:19:35	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on August 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5da1a2…
08-06 00:23:00	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1bb42d…
08-05 00:33:11	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on August 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xde3088…
08-04 03:25:35	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa39879…
08-03 00:17:45	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on August 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x522169…
08-02 00:19:27	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on August 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf31148…
08-01 00:15:47	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc08843…
07-31 07:09:14	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xaebe9f…
07-30 00:16:09	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x62bc4b…
07-29 00:16:22	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x825325…
07-28 00:20:33	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2c382b…
07-27 01:22:37	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on July 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xca8205…
07-26 08:40:46	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x88f023…