Real-Declaration — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$145

Unrealized P&L

-$10

Hit rate

91.4%

Resolved

176

Trades

944

lifetime

Volume

$39.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$42

Open exposure

$120

1 position

First seen

2026-05-10

last 06-09 18:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

96% 86% $-145

Politics

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 136 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No		+167	$130	72¢	$120	$-10	06-08 16:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$726	567	567	+0	open	—	05-17 20:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$657	350	350	+0	open	—	05-14 21:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	5	$562	755	441	+314	open	—	05-15 05:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	4	$307	654	0	+654	open	—	05-18 18:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	2	$300	305	0	+305	Down	$-300	05-13 07:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	3	$299	423	192	+231	open	—	05-18 18:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	2	$298	251	250	+0	open	—	05-27 18:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	5	$280	289	0	+289	Down	+$9	05-13 08:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	3	$275	302	0	+302	Up	$-20	05-13 17:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	3	$275	288	0	+288	Down	+$13	05-13 05:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	5	$271	278	0	+278	Down	+$5	05-13 07:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	2	$266	193	193	+0	open	—	05-18 04:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	3	$264	208	195	+13	open	—	05-17 22:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	2	$263	196	196	+0	open	—	05-17 21:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	2	$254	185	185	+0	open	—	05-18 10:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	2	$253	182	182	+0	open	—	05-18 11:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	2	$253	184	184	+0	open	—	05-18 06:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	2	$252	268	0	+268	open	—	05-14 21:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	2	$252	286	0	+286	open	—	05-14 21:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	2	$251	183	182	+0	open	—	05-18 06:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	1	$250	253	0	+253	open	—	05-14 21:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	2	$250	253	0	+253	Down	+$3	05-13 06:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	2	$213	147	147	+0	open	—	05-18 10:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	4	$212	388	0	+388	open	—	05-14 21:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	2	$202	235	0	+235	open	—	05-14 21:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	1	$200	202	0	+202	open	—	05-14 21:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	1	$200	202	0	+202	open	—	05-15 05:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	2	$200	202	0	+202	Up	+$2	05-12 18:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	1	$200	202	0	+202	open	—	05-14 21:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	1	$200	207	0	+207	open	—	05-15 05:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 00:08:43	btc updown 5m 1781049900	Down	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0x4e663e…
06-09 18:14:07	btc updown 5m 1781028600	Down	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xfb1463…
06-09 18:14:06	btc updown 5m 1781028600	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x824f3a…
06-09 18:07:01	btc updown 5m 1781028300	Up	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0x25c1bf…
06-09 18:04:58	btc updown 5m 1781028000	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x9b48f8…
06-09 18:04:57	btc updown 5m 1781028000	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xd827f3…
06-09 18:03:33	btc updown 5m 1781028000	Down	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x3ab6ee…
06-09 16:42:24	btc updown 5m 1781023200	Up	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x59b282…
06-09 16:38:31	btc updown 5m 1781022900	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xfa4f04…
06-09 16:35:18	btc updown 5m 1781022600	Up	SELL	41	99¢	$40	0xf39296…
06-09 16:33:48	btc updown 5m 1781022600	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x0afd73…
06-09 16:33:43	btc updown 5m 1781022600	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xc08acc…
06-09 16:29:46	btc updown 5m 1781022300	Down	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x41f42f…
06-09 16:29:19	btc updown 5m 1781022300	Up	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0xdb48bf…
06-09 16:27:16	btc updown 5m 1781022300	Down	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0x524dde…
06-09 09:04:52	btc updown 5m 1780995600	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x77fe57…
06-09 08:49:04	btc updown 5m 1780994700	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6ebc8e…
06-09 08:44:58	btc updown 5m 1780994400	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x831f32…
06-09 08:44:54	btc updown 5m 1780994400	Up	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x688fdc…
06-09 07:08:48	btc updown 5m 1780988700	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xc0c2c6…
06-09 07:08:40	btc updown 5m 1780988700	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xfb3c83…
06-09 07:08:37	btc updown 5m 1780988700	Up	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x47921a…
06-09 07:08:36	btc updown 5m 1780988700	Up	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x46828e…
06-09 07:08:31	btc updown 5m 1780988700	Up	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x0bbdec…
06-09 07:08:19	btc updown 5m 1780988700	Up	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x1ba69c…
06-08 16:11:28	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	167	78¢	$130	0x87225c…
06-07 22:52:12	btc updown 5m 1780872600	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x4d5480…
06-07 22:46:03	btc updown 5m 1780872300	Up	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xbb0e17…
06-07 22:37:27	btc updown 5m 1780871700	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x262979…
06-07 22:34:09	btc updown 5m 1780871400	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x1cfdf6…
06-07 22:34:07	btc updown 5m 1780871400	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x979076…
06-07 22:30:52	btc updown 5m 1780871400	Up	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x7075a3…
06-04 00:46:31	btc updown 5m 1780533900	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x067e3f…
06-04 00:46:27	btc updown 5m 1780533900	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xaf8ed6…
06-04 00:46:18	btc updown 5m 1780533900	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xbcfe0f…
06-04 00:42:00	btc updown 5m 1780533600	Down	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xc82a48…
06-03 17:07:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x38b19f…
06-03 16:55:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xd469fd…
06-03 15:50:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x4c5df4…
06-03 15:48:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xbc31ea…
06-03 15:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x13cd23…
06-03 15:04:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x83ebdc…
06-03 14:57:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xccb78e…
05-30 21:05:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2,000	1¢	$20	0x5cdfdd…
05-30 21:04:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	59	34¢	$20	0xfc784e…
05-30 20:29:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x922471…
05-30 20:29:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x0bcdeb…
05-30 20:25:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x7d8cb3…
05-30 20:24:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x214c2b…
05-30 20:24:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x0a68a8…
05-30 20:24:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xa07df8…
05-30 20:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x07c39b…
05-30 20:19:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xe33f96…
05-30 20:19:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x5f8534…
05-30 20:19:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	191	26¢	$50	0xbb5794…
05-30 19:48:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x453e6d…
05-30 19:39:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x27adde…
05-30 19:35:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd98bb7…
05-30 19:34:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xb64183…
05-30 19:34:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	80	62¢	$50	0x84621c…
05-30 19:33:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0xd4ff5d…
05-30 19:24:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xb6753a…
05-30 19:18:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	90	55¢	$50	0xc17fa5…
05-30 19:14:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0x0ce83d…
05-30 18:59:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xd0093f…
05-30 18:48:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x7cba12…
05-30 18:44:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xad588b…
05-30 18:44:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x31faef…
05-30 18:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x2fd232…
05-30 18:39:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x2ca5af…
05-30 18:39:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0xcd7382…
05-30 18:39:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x289992…
05-30 18:28:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x42fd20…
05-30 18:27:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x18b80f…
05-30 18:27:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x06f619…
05-30 18:27:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xf0eea9…
05-30 18:18:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x07562a…
05-30 18:14:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0x6d0c48…
05-30 18:10:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	15,000	1¢	$150	0xd682f6…
05-30 18:10:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x75ff53…
05-29 16:29:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	153	98¢	$150	0x9f9c84…
05-29 10:54:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xb196ee…
05-29 10:54:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xe29b72…
05-29 10:43:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x9bb312…
05-29 10:43:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x27f1fe…
05-29 10:43:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xf402db…
05-29 10:38:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x770215…
05-29 10:38:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x6f05f4…
05-29 10:38:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x9710f2…
05-29 10:38:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x098cfa…
05-29 10:37:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x332195…
05-29 10:34:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	40	14¢	$6	0x3246cd…
05-29 10:34:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	196	77¢	$150	0x1df38c…
05-29 10:24:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	149	45¢	$67	0x194526…
05-29 00:54:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x8e7cfd…
05-29 00:48:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x82c563…
05-28 16:53:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x3890cc…
05-28 16:49:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xdfaf23…
05-28 11:27:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x344ed0…
05-28 08:59:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xc1b1ba…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Agile-Analogy 0x1015…bac8	537	$105.0K	17,537	06-10 00:08
(anonymous) 0x75cc…3ce1	534	$48.1K	6,911	06-10 00:06
(anonymous) 0x48ac…4a7e	529	$151.4K	42,637	06-10 00:08
(anonymous) 0xba67…4727	529	$121.6K	18,455	06-10 00:08
(anonymous) 0xd901…8e14	528	$155.4K	43,605	06-10 00:08
(anonymous) 0x76d4…c512	525	$270.1K	40,358	06-10 00:08
(anonymous) 0x20d2…e29d	525	$71.7K	5,356	06-10 00:08
(anonymous) 0x6cf4…e1fa	522	$720	2,606	06-09 18:14