False-Leadership — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$38

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

81.6%

Resolved

639

Trades

752

lifetime

Volume

$3.52K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 11-09 12:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 158 days

Categories

Crypto

87% 23% -$2

Other

9% 52% -$27

Sports

4% 41% -$8

Politics

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

79 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	3	$45	51	+51	Up	+$5	10-30 10:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 11:40 UTC	4	$45	51	+51	Down	+$5	10-13 11:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	2	$45	51	+51	Down	+$5	09-09 12:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	3	$45	51	+51	Up	+$5	09-20 17:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-30 14:00 UTC	5	$45	51	+51	Up	+$5	08-30 14:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	3	$45	51	+51	Up	+$5	10-05 01:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	2	$45	51	+51	Up	+$5	09-01 10:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 15:30 UTC	2	$45	51	+51	Up	+$5	09-25 15:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:20 UTC	6	$45	51	+51	Down	+$5	10-04 15:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	5	$45	51	+51	Up	+$5	11-09 00:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 13:10 UTC	2	$45	51	+51	Down	+$5	09-26 13:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 12:35 UTC	5	$45	51	+51	Down	+$5	09-16 12:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	2	$45	51	+51	Up	+$5	09-23 12:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	3	$45	51	+51	Up	+$5	10-01 11:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	4	$45	51	+51	Down	+$5	09-08 00:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 00:25 UTC	2	$45	51	+51	Down	+$5	09-28 00:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	2	$45	50	+50	Up	+$5	09-08 12:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	3	$45	50	+50	Down	+$5	10-22 00:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	1	$45	50	+50	Down	+$5	09-07 00:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 11:30 UTC	4	$45	50	+50	Down	-$45	10-13 11:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	1	$45	50	+50	Up	+$5	09-11 11:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 14:45 UTC	1	$45	50	+50	Up	+$5	09-25 14:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 13:45 UTC	1	$45	50	+50	Down	-$45	09-24 13:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 22:00 UTC	1	$45	50	+50	Down	+$5	09-28 22:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-28 14:20 UTC	2	$45	50	+50	Down	-$45	08-28 14:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	4	$45	50	+50	Up	+$5	09-07 00:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	1	$45	50	+50	Down	+$5	10-23 14:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	3	$45	50	+50	Down	+$5	09-06 15:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	3	$45	50	+50	Down	-$45	09-18 12:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 12:30 UTC	3	$45	50	+50	Up	-$45	09-16 12:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-09 12:04:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x4d08f6…
11-09 11:54:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xd5a918…
11-09 11:34:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xaca5a9…
11-09 00:44:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x63c077…
11-09 00:34:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x3aa048…
11-09 00:28:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0x325070…
11-09 00:18:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	29	90¢	$26	0x79b5dc…
11-09 00:18:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	0	90¢	$0	0x83f663…
11-09 00:18:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x292112…
11-09 00:18:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x148d5c…
11-09 00:18:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x191c33…
11-09 00:15:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x389c24…
11-09 00:08:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$6	0xf31c08…
11-09 00:08:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xc19093…
11-09 00:08:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x509096…
11-09 00:08:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x089532…
11-06 11:44:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xb4fc5e…
11-05 11:34:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x33e5b7…
11-05 11:29:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x5f1056…
11-05 11:23:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x575add…
11-04 11:58:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xa67cee…
11-03 11:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xdfc6f5…
11-03 00:23:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xac64cd…
11-03 00:14:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xb2fa7e…
11-03 00:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xe2183c…
11-02 13:43:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0xa9e963…
11-02 13:34:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xe83690…
11-02 13:18:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x7d1121…
11-02 12:08:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x625578…
11-02 11:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x045685…
11-02 11:40:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xf298e9…
11-02 11:18:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xd71a32…
11-02 10:49:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xa7eae3…
11-02 10:44:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0x4a44a0…
11-01 17:59:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x447c5d…
11-01 13:59:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xfe5070…
11-01 13:39:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x764b90…
10-31 11:44:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x11239e…
10-30 10:59:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x362fbf…
10-30 10:53:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x0c3809…
10-30 10:48:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x231a8f…
10-30 10:38:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x831315…
10-30 10:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x0be61b…
10-30 10:23:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	16	90¢	$14	0xc040d2…
10-30 10:23:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	34	90¢	$31	0x5004d7…
10-30 10:23:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x26c6a7…
10-28 15:03:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x6c5c1a…
10-28 14:59:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x70405e…
10-28 14:53:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x4f0b27…
10-28 14:43:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x8210c3…
10-28 14:38:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xc50174…
10-27 11:34:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xfad3ea…
10-26 12:03:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x6e964e…
10-26 11:53:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x02a329…
10-26 11:39:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x1e2887…
10-26 02:15:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x0c3375…
10-26 02:09:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xc32666…
10-26 02:03:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x7447cc…
10-26 01:58:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0xb9bf3e…
10-26 01:53:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0xb1a1fa…
10-26 01:48:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0x68cf9b…
10-26 00:39:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x497750…
10-26 00:34:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x6a2607…
10-26 00:28:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xdd3dd6…
10-26 00:09:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x1847a9…
10-25 16:58:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x6723b0…
10-25 16:54:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x81f767…
10-25 16:38:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xb3f165…
10-25 14:18:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x6c9b41…
10-24 20:43:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x779818…
10-23 14:48:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0xc54397…
10-23 14:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x87e6ed…
10-23 14:28:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x4a7138…
10-22 10:43:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xd1a222…
10-22 00:34:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x13a449…
10-22 00:29:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xc1b4b4…
10-22 00:23:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0xfd45a3…
10-22 00:23:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	13	90¢	$12	0xcdf310…
10-22 00:23:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	14	90¢	$13	0x9f27fc…
10-22 00:08:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x31e461…
10-22 00:03:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xf775e4…
10-21 22:49:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x2e7e40…
10-21 22:43:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xb4ad92…
10-21 22:23:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xe19598…
10-21 22:18:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x0f2959…
10-21 18:23:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0xec7b11…
10-21 17:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x4f8b65…
10-20 11:53:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xdc3fe5…
10-20 11:48:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x283c01…
10-20 11:38:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xbb5fac…
10-19 12:09:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xbf1a07…
10-19 11:53:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xe0ace0…
10-19 11:44:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x19ad2a…
10-19 11:38:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x8aefa9…
10-18 22:10:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x7253fd…
10-18 21:59:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x3c17ab…
10-18 11:33:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x97b0c4…
10-17 16:19:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 16:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x778f96…
10-17 16:04:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xc40c79…
10-17 15:54:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 15:50 UTC	Up	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x8c362e…