First-Hobby — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

61.3%

Resolved

108

Trades

240

lifetime

Volume

$724

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-05

last 06-28 04:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

95% 33% +$5

Other

3% — —

Politics

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes		-33	$-1	4¢	$-1	+$0	06-28 04:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7?	2	$35	33	33	+0	No	+$31	05-07 16:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	3	$32	31	25	+6	Down	+$10	05-08 09:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	3	$26	26	19	+7	Down	+$4	05-13 08:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	2	$25	22	22	+0	Up	+$5	05-11 09:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	2	$23	22	22	+0	Up	+$3	05-11 12:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	2	$20	15	15	+0	Up	+$10	05-07 13:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2?	2	$19	18	18	+0	open	—	06-02 17:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	3	$16	24	13	+11	Down	+$4	05-08 09:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	3	$15	19	12	+7	open	—	06-02 09:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	2	$15	10	10	+0	open	—	06-03 09:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	2	$15	10	10	+0	open	—	06-03 11:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	4	$14	13	13	+0	Down	+$2	05-11 11:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	2	$14	9	9	+0	Down	+$4	05-05 13:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	3	$14	36	34	+1	open	—	06-02 10:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	3	$13	33	12	+21	Down	$-7	05-08 14:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	2	$12	11	11	+0	Up	+$8	05-07 12:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	2	$12	12	12	+0	Up	+$10	05-05 10:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	2	$11	11	11	+0	Down	+$7	05-05 09:49
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11?	1	$10	246	0	+246	No	$-10	05-10 18:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	1	$10	21	0	+21	Down	+$11	05-07 07:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	1	$10	37	0	+37	Up	$-10	05-08 14:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	Up	$-10	05-07 13:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	Down	$-10	05-13 09:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	3	$10	7	7	+0	open	—	06-03 10:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	2	$9	9	9	+0	Up	+$7	05-05 09:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	2	$9	8	8	+0	open	—	05-04 09:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	1	$9	0	9	-9	open	—	06-03 09:45
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	2	$7	14	14	+0	open	—	01-16 07:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	2	$6	30	0	+30	Down	$-6	05-05 11:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	2	$6	79	0	+79	Up	$-6	05-07 07:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-28 04:50:59	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	4¢	$1	0x7afe29…
06-27 19:35:50	fifwc jor arg 2026 06 27 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xf63507…
06-26 19:59:43	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 goals erling haaland gte1	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xdef5f8…
06-26 19:59:22	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 goals kylian mbappe gte1	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xd14d4b…
06-22 16:55:31	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 goals lionel messi gte2	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x848075…
06-22 16:55:05	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 goals lionel messi gte1	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x38c353…
06-18 05:55:08	Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x5ab6f0…
06-05 13:08:48	btc updown 5m 1780664700	Up	SELL	3	8¢	$0	0xad683b…
06-05 13:06:15	btc updown 5m 1780664700	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x4bcc68…
06-04 14:27:36	will solana dip to 60 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	4	41¢	$2	0x3f8599…
06-04 14:26:49	bitcoin above 64k on june 4 2026	No	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0xf50afe…
06-04 14:26:37	bitcoin above 62k on june 4 2026	No	SELL	2	5¢	$0	0x601fba…
06-04 11:16:34	btc updown 5m 1780571700	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xbeadb1…
06-04 11:16:09	btc updown 5m 1780571700	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x1b0194…
06-04 11:10:27	btc updown 5m 1780571400	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x0c36de…
06-04 11:08:06	bitcoin above 62k on june 4 2026	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x16400e…
06-03 19:17:58	Will Solana dip to $60 in June?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x711773…
06-03 19:16:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x8e6a2d…
06-03 13:17:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xa402a3…
06-03 13:11:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x919507…
06-03 13:05:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x2f291e…
06-03 11:21:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xfffdb1…
06-03 11:20:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xa39546…
06-03 11:17:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x51df74…
06-03 10:15:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x71f14a…
06-03 10:01:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x9f369e…
06-03 10:00:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x4dac02…
06-03 09:56:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x36c59b…
06-03 09:52:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0xa35ed7…
06-03 09:51:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xa53e79…
06-03 09:49:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x63b565…
06-03 09:49:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x65cb27…
06-03 09:45:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x8ca67f…
06-03 09:44:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa1244f…
06-03 09:40:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3?	No	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xa332ac…
06-03 09:22:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x8e4980…
06-03 09:22:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	7	13¢	$1	0xfe88ed…
06-02 17:07:29	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x257d7a…
06-02 10:03:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x5923b3…
06-02 10:03:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	SELL	34	26¢	$9	0x65a492…
06-02 10:02:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	34	11¢	$4	0x98adaf…
06-02 09:55:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x167353…
06-02 09:43:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x913118…
06-02 09:43:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	SELL	12	71¢	$8	0xffb57d…
06-02 09:41:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x9366ee…
06-02 09:38:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2?	No	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x39a004…
05-21 13:58:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x45aa38…
05-19 09:17:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xb5f028…
05-18 11:09:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18?	No	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xe2951e…
05-15 14:04:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xc704bd…
05-15 13:37:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x2f8888…
05-15 12:00:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xb6b7c1…
05-13 09:55:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xeea9ad…
05-13 09:52:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x34dfd0…
05-13 09:50:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x6a0c9e…
05-13 09:49:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	SELL	3	50¢	$2	0x44a64d…
05-13 09:47:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0xc3d8c4…
05-13 09:46:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x42fd32…
05-13 09:44:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x70ee44…
05-13 09:43:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xf591e1…
05-13 09:10:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xa65dda…
05-13 09:05:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x7bb90a…
05-13 08:51:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xae6250…
05-13 08:48:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x5f9a69…
05-13 08:48:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	SELL	19	77¢	$15	0x45caf0…
05-13 08:45:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xca3dd5…
05-13 08:40:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x1b7df5…
05-12 13:56:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12?	No	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0x1376bc…
05-12 13:55:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12?	Yes	SELL	18	0¢	$0	0x237a27…
05-11 20:28:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0xda2170…
05-11 20:26:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x030409…
05-11 15:32:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x89ef0b…
05-11 14:37:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xa5e16f…
05-11 14:36:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x08caf9…
05-11 14:30:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xe194cf…
05-11 14:25:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xfbe43a…
05-11 14:21:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11?	No	BUY	143	3¢	$5	0x6a3063…
05-11 13:30:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xcbde37…
05-11 13:26:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x6d52a7…
05-11 12:21:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	SELL	22	59¢	$13	0x7763d4…
05-11 12:20:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xa28ad4…
05-11 11:46:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x8c4662…
05-11 11:44:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0xc3ef49…
05-11 11:43:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xe07bc5…
05-11 11:42:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	SELL	11	67¢	$7	0xf4848f…
05-11 11:40:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x61fb8f…
05-11 11:39:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0x564385…
05-11 09:56:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	SELL	22	67¢	$15	0xc0318c…
05-11 09:55:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xff1d45…
05-11 09:52:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x6f35fe…
05-11 09:02:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x3b8ddb…
05-10 18:24:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	246	4¢	$10	0xcaaaad…
05-08 14:29:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x487b55…
05-08 14:27:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x3427bb…
05-08 14:26:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	SELL	12	23¢	$3	0x0661d9…
05-08 14:26:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xa7b963…
05-08 14:19:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x088c44…
05-08 14:05:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xfd1798…
05-08 14:02:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x6e2355…
05-08 14:01:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x86d70b…