First-Negotiation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$9.58K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

70.0%

Resolved

244

Trades

2,014

lifetime

Volume

$359.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$178

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-25 13:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 73 days

Categories

Other

58% 57% -$17,175

Crypto

23% 49% +$5,313

Sports

17% 100% +$2,613

Politics

3% 50% -$335

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 261 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	14	$57.3K	173,705	173,705	+0	Yes	+$2,589	07-13 08:52
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 2pt5	5	$20.3K	29,730	29,730	+0	Under	-$4,223	07-11 22:55
fifwc che col 2026 07 07 total 1pt5	2	$19.4K	22,920	22,920	+0	Under	-$12,704	07-07 21:32
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?	3	$18.7K	18,360	16,355	+2,006	Yes	+$3,168	06-07 05:49
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24?	2	$18.7K	11,226	11,226	+0	Yes	+$2,235	05-24 20:41
fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 total 2pt5	2	$8.2K	19,457	0	+19,457	Under	-$8,172	06-28 17:53
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 total 2pt5	1	$8.1K	16,213	0	+16,213	Over	+$8,107	07-07 08:43
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	2	$8.1K	5,394	5,394	+0	England	+$1,874	07-11 23:34
bitcoin up or down july 8 2026 6am et	192	$7.4K	6,842	6,842	+0	Up	+$1,199	07-08 10:32
FK Neftchi Fargona vs. Xorazm Fk Urganch: O/U 5.5	3	$6.7K	4,110	4,110	+0	Under	+$348	10-07 15:41
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 corners first half total 3pt5	7	$6.4K	8,860	0	+8,860	Over	+$2,481	07-09 19:57
fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 total 2pt5	1	$5.8K	11,455	0	+11,455	Under	-$5,813	07-13 09:08
bitcoin up or down july 8 2026 2am et	169	$5.4K	5,030	5,030	+0	Up	+$855	07-08 06:28
fifwc che col 2026 07 07 total 0pt5	2	$5.0K	6,445	6,445	+0	Under	-$1,418	07-07 21:45
fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 corners total 6pt5	1	$4.9K	6,180	0	+6,180	Over	+$1,315	07-05 22:24
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 total 3pt5	2	$4.8K	22,096	0	+22,096	Under	-$4,796	07-11 23:35
ucl kai sut 2026 07 08 total 2pt5	1	$4.4K	6,518	0	+6,518	Over	+$2,143	07-08 13:11
bitcoin up or down july 8 2026 1am et	79	$4.2K	3,881	3,691	+190	Down	+$348	07-08 05:20
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$3.9K	12,015	12,015	+0	No	+$24	06-14 20:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	170	$3.8K	4,000	4,000	+0	Up	+$1,376	10-07 10:10
Foshan Nanshi FC vs. Guangxi Hengchen FC: O/U 0.5	10	$3.7K	2,100	2,100	+0	Over	+$455	10-07 14:25
epl mun cry 2026 03 01 total 2pt5	3	$3.6K	2,068	2,068	+0	Over	+$494	03-01 16:56
IF Gnistan vs. FC Inter Turku: O/U 4.5	2	$3.5K	4,223	0	+4,223	Under	+$718	10-07 16:16
bitcoin up or down august 27 2026 10am et	96	$3.4K	3,627	3,627	+0	Up	+$907	08-27 14:12
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	1	$3.3K	5,458	0	+5,458	Yes	+$2,129	06-20 20:16
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	2	$3.0K	2,425	2,425	+0	Yes	+$88	03-01 13:54
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany?	2	$2.9K	3,087	3,087	+0	Yes	-$2,501	06-25 21:56
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$2.9K	1,480	1,480	+0	Yes	+$51	03-01 07:48
fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 total 2pt5	1	$2.9K	4,898	0	+4,898	Over	+$2,008	07-05 16:13
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	1	$2.6K	3,923	0	+3,923	Yes	+$1,334	06-16 10:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 13:56:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	47	16¢	$7	0x742b1f…
10-25 13:50:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xcc23d3…
10-20 06:16:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	136	21¢	$29	0x6bc9c7…
10-20 06:16:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	SELL	57	55¢	$31	0xd37dda…
10-20 06:15:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	57	37¢	$21	0xc3022e…
10-20 06:02:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xf417ec…
10-20 06:02:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	11	25¢	$3	0xcb1603…
10-20 06:02:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	60	25¢	$15	0x781a8c…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	25	25¢	$6	0xf2be31…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	25	25¢	$6	0xf092eb…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	25¢	$1	0xd8fcc8…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xd6d131…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	14	25¢	$3	0xce6186…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	25	25¢	$6	0xc84b1f…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	21	25¢	$5	0xc5361b…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	90	25¢	$22	0xb70f08…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xb19d88…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xb09649…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xb07069…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	0	25¢	$0	0xad7da0…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	21	25¢	$5	0x9f48ca…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	14	25¢	$3	0x9bed24…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x99a086…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	33	25¢	$8	0x95a5bb…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	60	25¢	$15	0x955c8e…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	30	25¢	$8	0x938ab1…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	60	25¢	$15	0x8ef427…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x7ce1f1…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	25¢	$2	0x70e172…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0x6e038a…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	60	25¢	$15	0x6c7a8a…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	25¢	$2	0x6b59b2…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x6a82d2…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	30	25¢	$8	0x656b8d…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	25¢	$2	0x64e08d…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	25¢	$2	0x5ed804…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	45	25¢	$11	0x562b84…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	25	25¢	$6	0x546fb7…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x51fa8f…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	44	25¢	$11	0x4fbef4…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	45	25¢	$11	0x4b1644…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	30	25¢	$8	0x49f09f…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	25¢	$2	0x461d18…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	25	25¢	$6	0x419590…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	14	25¢	$3	0x3d0abb…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	15	25¢	$4	0x3ae3bf…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0x3982eb…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	30	25¢	$8	0x33b589…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	25¢	$2	0x2b90d7…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	25	25¢	$6	0x276e9c…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0x25213e…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	30	25¢	$8	0x1b2899…
10-20 06:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	14	25¢	$3	0x0757f3…
10-19 13:45:32	Punjab FC vs. Mumbai City FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x2fd5b4…
10-19 13:45:09	Punjab FC vs. Mumbai City FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	720	48¢	$346	0xbfa400…
10-11 04:24:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	250	1¢	$2	0xc0acc9…
10-10 16:28:04	Lille OSC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	31	78¢	$24	0xf8040a…
10-10 16:27:33	Lille OSC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	34	78¢	$27	0x782821…
10-10 16:27:33	Lille OSC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	1,689	78¢	$1,317	0x3629ce…
10-10 16:27:31	Lille OSC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	516	78¢	$402	0xea246a…
10-10 16:27:31	Lille OSC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	80	78¢	$63	0x472cff…
10-10 16:26:52	Lille OSC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	9	78¢	$7	0xd06b9e…
10-09 12:51:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	44¢	$2	0xbffe0f…
10-09 12:51:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x88e621…
10-09 12:51:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	44¢	$2	0x6e5703…
10-09 12:51:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	53	44¢	$23	0x4e5fd0…
10-09 12:51:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	26	44¢	$11	0xaccba5…
10-09 12:51:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xa62a0d…
10-09 12:51:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x8ddfde…
10-09 12:51:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	17	44¢	$7	0x5fb82f…
10-09 12:51:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	30	44¢	$13	0x2cc6e4…
10-09 12:51:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0x03d0f8…
10-09 12:51:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0xd9f940…
10-09 12:51:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	46	44¢	$20	0xb6c0b7…
10-09 12:51:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	565	44¢	$249	0x8c416f…
10-09 12:51:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xd19f74…
10-09 12:51:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xba2cb3…
10-09 12:48:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	59	44¢	$26	0xcd7da6…
10-09 12:48:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x9190bb…
10-09 12:45:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x9508e3…
10-09 12:45:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	40	44¢	$18	0x47c5e8…
10-09 12:45:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	19	44¢	$8	0xfd5cc7…
10-09 12:45:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	19	44¢	$8	0xf75718…
10-09 12:45:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	44	44¢	$19	0xa80d30…
10-09 12:45:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	339	44¢	$149	0x28fc9e…
10-09 12:45:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	44¢	$3	0x0bf072…
10-09 12:45:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	36	44¢	$16	0xfdf12f…
10-09 12:45:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	44¢	$3	0x8d0ad1…
10-09 12:45:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x88859d…
10-09 12:45:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	36	44¢	$16	0x7ea03c…
10-09 12:45:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x1386ab…
10-09 12:45:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xab142b…
10-09 12:45:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	27	44¢	$12	0x60d692…
10-09 12:45:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x20f5f7…
10-09 12:45:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0xd92da4…
10-09 12:45:18	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-09 12:45 UTC	Down	BUY	30	44¢	$13	0xf79736…
10-09 12:45:18	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-09 12:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x77d8f7…
10-09 12:45:18	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-09 12:45 UTC	Down	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x5ba042…
10-09 12:45:18	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-09 12:45 UTC	Down	BUY	40	44¢	$18	0x3c249a…
10-09 12:45:16	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-09 12:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xbf652e…