Chubby-Decrease — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$693

Unrealized P&L

-$177

Hit rate

79.8%

Resolved

Trades

142

lifetime

Volume

$10.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$76

Open exposure

$10

1 position

First seen

2026-03-02

last 09-25 13:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 22 days

Categories

Crypto

75% 71% -$152

Other

20% 75% -$61

Politics

4% 0% -$480

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes		-186	$168	5¢	$-10	-$177	09-10 22:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch?	4	$1.6K	790	790	+0	Yes	+$10	05-04 08:29
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?	6	$1.0K	967	203	+764	Yes	+$107	04-12 03:13
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	5	$816	560	560	+0	No	-$65	05-29 06:19
Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch?	7	$580	588	0	+588	Yes	+$8	03-03 22:45
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?	4	$521	491	192	+299	Yes	+$58	06-24 11:56
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	2	$516	537	0	+537	Yes	+$21	03-05 05:52
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	1	$488	493	0	+493	No	+$5	03-17 07:31
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	1	$362	385	0	+385	Yes	+$23	04-28 05:19
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$351	358	0	+358	Yes	+$8	05-04 10:46
will neutrl launch a token by june 30 2027	4	$335	300	300	+0	open	—	08-15 23:35
OneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch?	7	$288	350	0	+350	No	-$288	04-09 09:01
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$284	304	0	+304	Yes	-$284	04-05 13:54
Nexus FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$283	300	0	+300	Yes	+$17	05-20 13:37
Mezo FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$275	283	0	+283	No	+$9	04-01 14:33
will squid launch a token by december 31 2026	5	$264	300	0	+300	Yes	+$36	07-15 14:53
Beezie FDV above $50M one day after launch?	3	$242	336	0	+336	open	—	08-16 00:55
Mezo FDV above $400M one day after launch?	1	$212	214	0	+214	No	+$2	04-01 14:38
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	9	$210	400	586	-186	open	—	09-10 22:56
beezie fdv above 100m one day after launch 20260804180933885	2	$205	268	30	+238	open	—	08-05 06:37
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	1	$196	200	0	+200	Yes	-$196	04-04 15:31
Will Arcium launch a token by September 30, 2027?	2	$160	172	0	+172	Yes	+$12	06-03 10:23
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	11	$155	400	600	-200	Yes	+$13	05-30 10:37
will beezie launch a token by december 31 2026 20260727145732885	6	$142	300	0	+300	open	—	08-14 16:16
beezie fdv above 200m one day after launch 20260804180933887	7	$132	235	170	+65	open	—	08-06 18:43
Will Beezie launch a token by June 30, 2027?	3	$128	172	0	+172	open	—	09-25 13:15
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$98	100	0	+100	Yes	+$2	06-01 12:27
R2 FDV above $20M one day after launch?	1	$97	105	0	+105	No	+$7	03-31 05:42
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$93	100	0	+100	Yes	+$7	06-01 21:30
over 1pt5m committed to the ryvo public sale 20260804200831369	2	$79	84	0	+84	No	+$5	08-09 10:06
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	2	$73	100	0	+100	Yes	+$27	06-01 08:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-25 13:15:39	Will Beezie launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	24	69¢	$17	0x3966c7…
09-25 13:15:06	Will Beezie launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	48	68¢	$33	0xf84ea9…
09-19 11:37:48	Beezie FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x8f1762…
09-10 22:56:49	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	523	4¢	$19	0x81184b…
09-10 14:11:54	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	4¢	$1	0x8f2029…
09-09 04:58:31	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	4¢	$2	0xd07ce4…
08-16 00:55:00	beezie fdv above 50m one day after launch 20260804180933884	Yes	BUY	127	69¢	$87	0x660cb0…
08-15 23:35:04	will neutrl launch a token by june 30 2027	No	SELL	62	77¢	$48	0x7e34cb…
08-15 12:09:01	Aligned FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	56	6¢	$3	0x05b742…
08-15 12:06:19	Aligned FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	31	26¢	$8	0xfdb22f…
08-14 16:16:07	will beezie launch a token by december 31 2026 20260727145732885	Yes	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0x62c335…
08-14 05:45:49	beezie fdv above 50m one day after launch 20260804180933884	Yes	BUY	109	63¢	$69	0xb4ecb6…
08-14 02:28:58	will beezie launch a token by december 31 2026 20260727145732885	Yes	BUY	44	46¢	$20	0xfb8058…
08-14 02:27:48	will beezie launch a token by december 31 2026 20260727145732885	Yes	BUY	56	46¢	$26	0x9103c4…
08-13 18:11:18	will neutrl launch a token by june 30 2027	No	SELL	238	74¢	$176	0x79af89…
08-13 13:24:46	will neutrl launch a token by june 30 2027	No	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0x552740…
08-13 13:24:31	will neutrl launch a token by june 30 2027	No	BUY	200	37¢	$74	0x2bf9ab…
08-12 21:10:07	will beezie launch a token by december 31 2027 20260727145435059	Yes	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0xc44026…
08-12 21:06:25	will beezie launch a token by december 31 2027 20260727145435059	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x102d7a…
08-12 12:12:30	will beezie launch a token by december 31 2026 20260727145732885	Yes	BUY	80	50¢	$40	0xedf271…
08-12 10:54:51	will beezie launch a token by december 31 2026 20260727145732885	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x7f695d…
08-11 11:18:16	Beezie FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xe07090…
08-11 11:09:25	will beezie launch a token by june 30 2027 20260727145435058	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x55e1d9…
08-09 10:06:51	over 2m committed to the ryvo public sale 20260804200831370	No	BUY	68	95¢	$65	0xb1b737…
08-09 10:06:42	over 1pt5m committed to the ryvo public sale 20260804200831369	No	BUY	3	95¢	$2	0x168bde…
08-09 10:06:27	over 1pt5m committed to the ryvo public sale 20260804200831369	No	BUY	81	94¢	$76	0x60de2d…
08-09 10:06:19	over 1m committed to the ryvo public sale 20260804200831368	No	BUY	41	92¢	$38	0x515b66…
08-06 18:43:53	beezie fdv above 200m one day after launch 20260804180933887	Yes	SELL	70	35¢	$24	0x5e44ff…
08-06 03:31:02	beezie fdv above 150m one day after launch 20260804180933886	Yes	BUY	51	48¢	$24	0x0105ea…
08-05 14:42:06	beezie fdv above 300m one day after launch 20260804180933889	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xa0e56a…
08-05 06:37:08	beezie fdv above 100m one day after launch 20260804180933885	Yes	SELL	30	74¢	$22	0x4994c3…
08-05 06:21:38	beezie fdv above 200m one day after launch 20260804180933887	Yes	SELL	13	35¢	$5	0x942d49…
08-05 03:12:32	beezie fdv above 200m one day after launch 20260804180933887	Yes	SELL	42	35¢	$15	0x0314e7…
08-05 02:46:35	beezie fdv above 200m one day after launch 20260804180933887	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0xfad821…
08-05 02:21:54	beezie fdv above 200m one day after launch 20260804180933887	Yes	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x91ebf1…
08-05 02:21:45	beezie fdv above 200m one day after launch 20260804180933887	Yes	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0xbbe50a…
08-05 02:21:23	beezie fdv above 200m one day after launch 20260804180933887	Yes	BUY	235	31¢	$73	0xb7e13f…
08-05 02:19:03	beezie fdv above 100m one day after launch 20260804180933885	Yes	BUY	268	68¢	$182	0x8a2c7e…
07-31 11:25:45	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	140	4¢	$6	0xd18d86…
07-23 08:00:55	will cambria launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	38	96¢	$36	0x485142…
07-15 14:53:20	will squid launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	75	89¢	$67	0x6b4cb8…
07-14 20:46:13	will squid launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	42	89¢	$37	0xa2794c…
07-14 18:36:20	will squid launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	45	89¢	$40	0x938629…
07-14 18:36:13	will squid launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	37	89¢	$33	0x863fa3…
07-11 13:37:10	will squid launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x061f74…
06-24 11:56:31	Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	60	81¢	$49	0xb1ea21…
06-24 10:32:02	Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	239	82¢	$196	0xfda88d…
06-21 11:18:10	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	19	30¢	$6	0x8ce273…
06-20 18:35:20	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	21	30¢	$6	0x1c68a5…
06-03 17:30:48	Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0xbf7451…
06-03 10:25:16	Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x4947f4…
06-03 10:23:53	Will Arcium launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	37	94¢	$34	0x35b67b…
06-03 10:23:31	Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	36	94¢	$34	0x4ae085…
06-03 10:23:22	Will Arcium launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	135	93¢	$125	0x29d85c…
06-01 22:47:56	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0x0ceb74…
06-01 21:30:07	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x327d67…
06-01 12:27:45	GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x63ab5b…
06-01 08:27:22	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2	73¢	$1	0x779ff2…
05-31 18:00:53	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	98	73¢	$72	0x78d1ec…
05-30 10:37:28	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	306	14¢	$43	0xd1889e…
05-30 09:07:59	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	57	14¢	$8	0x5cfb3c…
05-30 09:06:30	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	14¢	$1	0x013426…
05-30 09:04:29	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	14¢	$2	0x83c5ea…
05-30 08:53:09	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0xe360a3…
05-30 04:40:20	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	14¢	$1	0x89c1d0…
05-30 04:31:22	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	14¢	$1	0x1ce493…
05-30 03:47:58	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	14¢	$28	0x947a88…
05-29 06:19:43	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	159	67¢	$106	0xd7edbb…
05-29 06:07:12	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	18	67¢	$12	0x2e78ae…
05-29 06:04:45	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	383	67¢	$257	0xc20daf…
05-27 13:35:17	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0xcebdc0…
05-27 13:20:49	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0xf944ff…
05-27 03:24:34	Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	192	73¢	$140	0xb671e8…
05-23 03:39:16	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	360	89¢	$320	0xc8800c…
05-20 13:37:47	Nexus FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	300	94¢	$283	0xcfc97e…
05-20 07:58:22	Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	192	71¢	$136	0xc3de0d…
05-20 02:18:57	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x82ab9c…
05-19 19:00:35	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xed8477…
05-19 06:54:20	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0xc987dc…
05-19 06:33:04	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	34¢	$32	0xfd9529…
05-16 11:58:10	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	198	50¢	$99	0x825464…
05-16 10:40:35	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	24	92¢	$22	0xe20cd2…
05-15 19:25:23	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	55¢	$32	0x521597…
05-10 08:55:03	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1fe4c3…
05-04 10:46:38	Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	190	98¢	$186	0x386ba8…
05-04 08:49:22	Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	168	98¢	$165	0x4b1fdb…
05-04 08:29:12	Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	790	100¢	$787	0x5fdd2f…
05-04 05:31:40	Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	596	98¢	$586	0x935cbc…
05-04 05:29:16	Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	36	98¢	$35	0x0efa7f…
05-03 04:56:16	Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	158	98¢	$155	0x6777c5…
04-28 05:19:50	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	385	94¢	$362	0x696087…
04-12 03:13:25	Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	764	86¢	$657	0x0c9789…
04-09 09:01:33	OneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	170	83¢	$141	0x3f1fcd…
04-09 09:01:07	OneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	25	82¢	$20	0xd08b90…
04-09 09:00:59	OneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	9	80¢	$7	0x4beeeb…
04-09 09:00:55	OneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x5e211b…
04-09 09:00:49	OneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	78	82¢	$64	0xd88fe4…
04-09 09:00:45	OneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0xb874ca…
04-09 08:38:57	OneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	13	80¢	$10	0x45566d…
04-09 06:13:19	OneFootball FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	92	26¢	$24	0x109543…