Innocent-Lord — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$2.42K

Unrealized P&L

-$14

Hit rate

96.2%

Resolved (90d)

1,443

Trades (90d)

2,513

6,276 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$273.1K

$944.1K lifetime

Avg / trade

$150

Open exposure

$36

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-30 14:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 253 days

Categories

Other

98% 94% -$2,535

Crypto

1% 84% -$323

Tech

1% 85% +$58

Sports

0% 67% -$129

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 181 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?	No		+80	$50	45¢	$36	-$14	10-30 09:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will mrbeasts next video get between 55 and 57 million views on day 3	5	$3.8K	1,972	1,972	+0	Yes	+$93	03-10 17:20
will mrbeasts next video get 67 million or more views on day 5	11	$3.6K	1,878	1,878	+0	Yes	+$148	03-12 13:08
highest temperature in paris on april 8 2026 27c	2	$1.5K	730	729	+0	No	+$7	04-08 21:27
will mrbeasts next video get 90 million or more views on week 1	36	$1.3K	2,498	0	+2,498	No	-$1,299	03-13 16:26
Will $LAPTOP dip to $0.10 by September 30, 2026?	7	$1.2K	1,210	0	+1,210	Yes	+$48	09-19 10:42
highest temperature in warsaw on april 9 2026 9c	2	$1.0K	523	523	+1	No	+$10	04-09 20:50
highest temperature in warsaw on april 10 2026 11c	2	$1.0K	517	517	+1	No	+$10	04-10 21:33
highest temperature in beijing on april 9 2026 17corhigher	3	$990	499	498	+0	No	+$6	04-09 08:43
highest temperature in amsterdam on april 13 2026 16c	3	$962	493	492	+1	No	+$21	04-13 21:06
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on September 18?	3	$901	603	301	+302	Yes	-$299	09-18 15:07
Will $LAPTOP dip to $0.25 by September 30, 2026?	7	$856	937	0	+937	Yes	+$81	09-13 06:12
Will $LAPTOP dip to $0.05 by September 30, 2026?	15	$820	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$112	09-20 10:52
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on May 7?	4	$811	412	412	+0	No	+$11	05-07 14:37
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 26?	2	$806	407	407	+0	Yes	+$6	06-26 14:15
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 11 2026 32corhigher	2	$805	406	406	+0	No	+$6	04-11 08:40
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 26?	2	$804	405	405	+0	Yes	+$4	06-26 15:29
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18?	2	$804	405	405	+0	Yes	+$4	06-18 12:37
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24?	2	$804	404	404	+0	Yes	+$4	06-24 14:06
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 4?	4	$803	508	303	+204	Yes	-$197	06-04 20:23
will mrbeasts next video get 59 million or more views on day 4	3	$760	400	400	+0	Yes	+$40	03-11 18:46
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 5?	2	$747	379	379	+0	No	+$11	05-05 18:53
gpt 5pt4 released by march 9	2	$738	451	451	+0	Yes	+$38	03-05 16:29
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on October 15?	22	$735	400	400	+0	No	+$65	10-16 03:46
highest temperature in sao paulo on april 10 2026 24c	2	$719	362	362	+0	No	+$3	04-10 21:34
highest temperature in milan on april 10 2026 20c	2	$715	359	359	+0	No	+$3	04-10 15:50
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 10 2026 32corhigher	3	$709	357	356	+0	No	+$3	04-10 11:33
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18?	2	$703	354	354	+0	Yes	+$3	06-18 12:56
LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	2	$700	703	0	+703	Yes	+$3	09-10 09:20
highest temperature in beijing on april 13 2026 22c	2	$691	350	349	+0	No	+$7	04-13 08:20
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on May 29?	3	$670	341	341	+0	No	+$10	05-29 21:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 14:04:18	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $520-$530 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 26 – Oct 30?	Yes	BUY	74	54¢	$40	0x1e1378…
10-30 13:49:43	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	58	87¢	$50	0x667c38…
10-30 13:44:30	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	89	96¢	$86	0x68c7be…
10-30 13:19:13	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $82.50 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0x09996c…
10-30 13:18:39	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	96¢	$52	0x399ee5…
10-30 12:15:22	Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on October 30?	Down	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0x687ad1…
10-30 12:15:00	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	96¢	$34	0x56801b…
10-30 10:41:00	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x22916a…
10-30 10:40:58	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	70¢	$9	0x4a0733…
10-30 09:24:57	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0xdc0d09…
10-30 09:22:01	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $275 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0x1dcbe4…
10-30 09:08:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?	No	BUY	80	62¢	$50	0x942509…
10-30 07:37:34	Will Logan Paul pull a Reverse Holographic Snorlax?	Yes	SELL	111	2¢	$2	0x5865e9…
10-29 21:47:00	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0xe3e2da…
10-29 20:11:13	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22B by October 31?	No	BUY	16	77¢	$12	0x36635e…
10-29 20:10:40	Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on October 29?	Up	SELL	94	100¢	$94	0x363e2c…
10-29 19:56:55	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22B by October 31?	No	BUY	36	77¢	$28	0xf40121…
10-29 19:39:13	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	179	28¢	$50	0x30ed1e…
10-29 19:27:28	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on October 29?	No	SELL	78	100¢	$78	0x412bf8…
10-29 17:24:14	Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on October 29?	Up	BUY	81	53¢	$43	0xc7e3ca…
10-29 17:22:10	Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on October 29?	Up	BUY	13	55¢	$7	0x7c15ea…
10-29 17:21:38	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	95¢	$45	0x29c4e8…
10-29 16:29:19	Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.20T and $1.30T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	80¢	$50	0x155f34…
10-29 16:28:44	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	94¢	$21	0x9df9a7…
10-29 14:11:13	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $145 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0x539763…
10-29 14:09:35	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 29?	No	SELL	82	97¢	$80	0x659afd…
10-29 13:51:16	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $175 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0xb9640e…
10-29 13:49:34	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	94¢	$51	0xe32fa5…
10-29 10:24:55	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?	No	BUY	64	79¢	$50	0x576183…
10-29 10:22:40	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	93¢	$28	0x1f9b34…
10-29 09:19:07	Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $2.00 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	42	62¢	$26	0x5d4746…
10-29 09:17:31	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xf65461…
10-29 08:39:46	Will Logan Paul pull a Reverse Holographic Snorlax?	Yes	BUY	111	45¢	$50	0x08524d…
10-29 08:39:37	Will Logan Paul pull a Reverse Holographic Pikachu?	Yes	BUY	111	45¢	$50	0xd5bc41…
10-29 08:38:53	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C on October 29?	No	SELL	74	100¢	$73	0xdc6f84…
10-29 08:38:47	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 15°C on October 29?	No	SELL	79	100¢	$79	0xa9f78d…
10-28 17:30:26	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	No	BUY	63	75¢	$47	0xff122e…
10-28 17:29:52	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on October 29?	No	SELL	55	87¢	$48	0xd829b2…
10-28 17:27:31	over 3m committed to the over computer public sale	No	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xd8a3f3…
10-28 17:27:17	over 5m committed to the over computer public sale	No	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xf6142a…
10-28 17:26:46	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on October 29?	No	SELL	12	88¢	$11	0x7a0410…
10-28 15:41:53	Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $2.00 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	35	68¢	$24	0x513df8…
10-28 13:58:34	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on October 28?	No	SELL	78	4¢	$3	0x2c3109…
10-28 11:08:37	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 29?	No	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0xdbac4d…
10-28 10:43:34	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on October 28?	No	SELL	40	57¢	$23	0x8428b1…
10-28 10:43:34	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on October 28?	No	SELL	7	57¢	$4	0x65bf1a…
10-28 10:43:34	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on October 28?	No	SELL	19	57¢	$11	0x356f87…
10-28 10:14:13	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on October 28?	No	SELL	1	57¢	$1	0x87bc5c…
10-28 10:13:52	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on October 28?	No	SELL	4	57¢	$2	0xf03d3a…
10-28 09:26:04	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on October 30?	No	BUY	75	67¢	$50	0x97c641…
10-28 09:25:05	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 28?	No	SELL	81	100¢	$81	0x91d222…
10-28 08:40:46	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 28?	No	SELL	93	0¢	$0	0x442a7f…
10-28 03:07:36	Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026?	No	BUY	25	65¢	$16	0xbf0f99…
10-28 01:50:39	Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026?	No	BUY	44	65¢	$29	0x665554…
10-27 19:21:42	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on October 28?	No	SELL	8	57¢	$5	0xff7f26…
10-27 19:14:18	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on October 28?	No	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0xdf5ddb…
10-27 19:07:59	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on October 28?	No	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0xce13c3…
10-27 19:06:35	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on October 28?	No	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0x797ed5…
10-27 16:48:00	highest temperature in buenos aires on october 29 2026 24c	No	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0xed33c2…
10-27 15:58:06	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on October 27?	No	SELL	77	100¢	$77	0xee4a0f…
10-27 15:38:35	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	19	35¢	$7	0xd3faf8…
10-27 15:05:06	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	19	31¢	$6	0xb8d557…
10-27 14:18:38	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on October 29?	No	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x9913be…
10-27 14:13:02	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on October 27?	No	SELL	78	0¢	$0	0xdf4597…
10-27 14:08:36	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 28?	No	SELL	105	27¢	$28	0x1037f6…
10-27 11:59:26	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 15°C on October 29?	No	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0xa740fd…
10-27 11:56:54	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 27?	No	SELL	78	99¢	$77	0x3750f8…
10-27 09:27:30	Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026?	No	BUY	39	66¢	$26	0xd5cbaf…
10-27 09:22:54	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C on October 29?	No	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0x07f056…
10-27 09:21:11	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on October 29?	No	BUY	67	74¢	$50	0x0dbdb7…
10-27 09:12:47	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 27?	No	SELL	72	100¢	$71	0xce11e6…
10-26 21:56:14	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on October 28?	No	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x475caa…
10-26 21:54:35	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on October 27?	No	SELL	84	97¢	$82	0x3e117e…
10-26 18:49:24	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	134	63¢	$84	0xb74f17…
10-26 18:49:24	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x8a6153…
10-26 18:49:24	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	63¢	$69	0x6610cc…
10-26 18:48:45	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	63¢	$21	0xec7ae4…
10-26 17:56:44	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on October 26?	No	SELL	186	100¢	$186	0xb89a8b…
10-26 12:33:24	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	63¢	$24	0x2b388d…
10-26 11:35:44	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 28?	No	BUY	81	62¢	$50	0x2cc10c…
10-26 11:33:24	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on October 28?	No	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0x6f127b…
10-26 11:31:54	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on October 27?	No	BUY	84	59¢	$50	0x915e8c…
10-26 11:30:18	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 28?	No	BUY	105	48¢	$50	0xb795c0…
10-26 11:29:29	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 27?	No	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x84024f…
10-26 11:27:53	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 28?	No	BUY	93	54¢	$50	0x7dd673…
10-26 11:23:20	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 27?	No	BUY	87	58¢	$50	0x3a3d01…
10-26 11:22:03	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on October 27?	No	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0xd26f40…
10-26 11:20:17	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 27?	No	BUY	72	70¢	$50	0xeb2055…
10-26 11:16:23	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on October 27?	No	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0xe2bc04…
10-26 09:33:45	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on October 26?	No	BUY	113	78¢	$88	0x5da321…
10-26 09:32:44	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on October 26?	No	BUY	74	75¢	$55	0x6e8644…
10-26 08:41:32	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on October 26?	No	BUY	45	89¢	$40	0xe4c955…
10-26 08:41:00	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on October 26?	No	BUY	59	68¢	$40	0x65df80…
10-26 08:39:50	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on October 26?	No	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x803b49…
10-26 08:38:41	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on October 26?	No	SELL	119	100¢	$119	0xa51ccb…
10-26 08:38:32	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on October 26?	No	SELL	125	100¢	$125	0x1acc6f…
10-25 22:56:29	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 26?	No	BUY	95	73¢	$69	0xa71808…
10-25 22:55:14	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on October 26?	No	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x361069…
10-25 22:53:21	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on October 26?	No	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x2b338a…
10-25 22:52:38	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on October 25?	No	SELL	127	99¢	$126	0xe22ce2…