Ironclad-Splendor — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$66

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.2%

Resolved

Trades

161

lifetime

Volume

$73.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$456

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-25

last 06-28 15:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

62% 0% $-78

Other

38% 100% +$13

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Netanyahu out by June 30?	9	$7.4K	2,728	4,758	-2,030	open	—	06-28 15:55
netanyahu out by march 31 854	3	$6.6K	3,326	3,326	+0	open	—	03-26 02:47
will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	15	$4.8K	3,744	3,121	+623	open	—	04-03 05:42
Netanyahu out by April 30?	3	$4.2K	2,097	2,097	+0	open	—	04-30 00:40
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	2	$4.0K	2,021	2,021	+0	open	—	03-20 00:53
over 600 us flights cancelled on march 25	2	$3.1K	3,102	0	+3,102	open	—	03-26 02:54
will iran strike israel on march 4	2	$3.0K	1,502	1,502	+0	open	—	03-08 01:29
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	4	$2.8K	2,645	200	+2,445	Yes	+$13	05-04 21:11
will trump say waste this week march 1	2	$2.7K	2,746	0	+2,746	open	—	03-04 22:36
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	1	$2.7K	2,706	0	+2,706	open	—	06-16 12:36
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	1	$2.1K	2,082	0	+2,082	open	—	04-08 02:43
will iran strike israel on march 10	2	$2.0K	1,988	0	+1,988	open	—	03-14 18:02
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	2	$1.9K	1,882	0	+1,882	open	—	04-30 00:41
will trump say israel israeli at the nrcc dinner on march 25 639	4	$1.7K	1,752	0	+1,752	open	—	03-26 05:45
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	1	$1.7K	1,733	0	+1,733	open	—	03-03 00:54
us forces enter iran by march 7	1	$1.5K	1,504	0	+1,504	open	—	03-08 04:19
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 7 2026	1	$1.5K	1,502	0	+1,502	open	—	03-08 01:29
will the us next strike iran on february 27 2026 et	1	$1.5K	1,465	0	+1,465	open	—	03-02 05:08
Will the US strike Iran next?	1	$1.5K	1,460	0	+1,460	open	—	03-01 22:31
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	1	$1.5K	1,453	0	+1,453	open	—	04-05 05:22
will the us next strike iran during the week of march 1 7 2026 et	1	$1.4K	1,454	0	+1,454	open	—	02-28 11:26
will trump say mental institution at the nrcc dinner on march 25 298	1	$1.2K	1,174	0	+1,174	open	—	03-26 05:45
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	1	$1.0K	1,007	0	+1,007	open	—	03-04 19:22
will trump say kamikaze during events with japanese pm	1	$855	856	0	+856	open	—	03-20 00:53
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	2	$829	830	0	+830	open	—	04-22 11:55
will trump say filibuster at the nrcc dinner on march 25 925	2	$816	817	0	+817	open	—	03-26 05:46
will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025	1	$785	786	0	+786	open	—	03-01 05:26
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	3	$750	751	0	+751	open	—	03-08 20:49
will trump say affair this week march 22	3	$738	743	0	+743	open	—	03-23 13:21
will epstein data set 13 be released by february 28	1	$669	670	0	+670	open	—	03-01 05:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-28 15:55:29	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	500	100¢	$499	0x7f29e4…
06-28 08:11:14	Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	20¢	$32	0x28d042…
06-28 08:11:01	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	500	100¢	$499	0x081a0e…
06-22 05:09:26	Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x47b81e…
06-22 05:07:58	Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	37,608	0¢	$38	0xf73095…
06-22 05:03:10	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	500	99¢	$496	0x50dd99…
06-22 05:01:11	Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0x69fe91…
06-22 05:01:04	Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0xb84847…
06-22 04:29:29	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	400	99¢	$397	0xeaddfe…
06-22 03:54:41	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x09739a…
06-20 16:33:14	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	2,728	100¢	$2,714	0xba1113…
06-16 12:36:04	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	BUY	2,706	100¢	$2,704	0x5f516a…
06-15 13:29:24	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	2,558	98¢	$2,517	0x06764e…
06-15 13:29:10	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	Yes	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x385eb0…
06-13 03:52:36	Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xd808fb…
06-13 03:50:09	Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x30c91c…
06-13 03:33:04	Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	BUY	67	100¢	$67	0x3b89f2…
06-12 14:59:22	spacex ipo will elon musk ring the bell 20260608201006493	No	BUY	189	100¢	$189	0xce167c…
06-12 12:53:49	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	Yes	BUY	189	100¢	$188	0x2f5f32…
06-11 05:36:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 10 2026	Yes	SELL	120	1¢	$1	0x843222…
06-11 05:04:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 10 2026	Yes	SELL	850	1¢	$8	0xe5b151…
06-11 05:00:06	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 10 2026	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0x5dedc5…
06-11 05:00:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 10 2026	Yes	SELL	2,962	1¢	$31	0x2cd6ac…
06-11 04:51:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 10 2026	Yes	SELL	2,200	1¢	$13	0xba9648…
06-11 04:51:01	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 10 2026	Yes	SELL	2,000	1¢	$12	0xae9916…
06-11 04:49:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 10 2026	Yes	SELL	582	1¢	$3	0x70e5b1…
06-11 04:28:25	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 10 2026	Yes	SELL	10,389	0¢	$21	0xb4e4b2…
06-11 04:20:42	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0xd6e01e…
06-11 04:14:00	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 10 2026	Yes	BUY	35,248	0¢	$35	0x6d61d8…
06-09 10:12:45	will any flight depart from imam khomeini international airport by june 8 20260607232624532	Yes	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xd6296f…
06-06 00:52:33	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x5409b3…
06-06 00:30:06	will trump say nuclear 3 times during wisconsin events 20260602174201997	Yes	SELL	65	2¢	$1	0xa056c9…
06-05 23:37:48	will trump say nuclear 3 times during wisconsin events 20260602174201997	Yes	BUY	500	7¢	$35	0x71a5d9…
06-05 23:25:51	will trump say nuclear 3 times during wisconsin events 20260602174201997	Yes	BUY	224	8¢	$18	0x091645…
06-05 23:25:15	will trump say nuclear 3 times during wisconsin events 20260602174201997	Yes	BUY	49	4¢	$2	0xfb8766…
06-05 23:07:16	will trump say nuclear 3 times during wisconsin events 20260602174201997	Yes	BUY	29	5¢	$1	0x57a7b5…
06-05 23:06:01	will trump say nuclear 3 times during wisconsin events 20260602174201997	Yes	BUY	55	5¢	$3	0x3122c9…
06-05 23:04:55	will trump say nuclear 3 times during wisconsin events 20260602174201997	Yes	BUY	16	5¢	$1	0x61b012…
06-05 23:04:54	will trump say nuclear 3 times during wisconsin events 20260602174201997	Yes	BUY	367	5¢	$18	0x90ac63…
06-05 23:04:01	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0xa6478e…
06-05 04:08:49	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x09be30…
06-01 06:29:14	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	0¢	$0	0xcf1ce2…
06-01 06:29:14	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x9521f3…
06-01 06:28:08	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xbf2128…
06-01 06:27:21	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	129	0¢	$0	0xead297…
06-01 06:22:58	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	146	0¢	$0	0xcfcbd9…
06-01 06:22:20	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	116	0¢	$0	0x8a962f…
06-01 06:21:39	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	0¢	$0	0x6b7a69…
06-01 06:21:11	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	145	0¢	$0	0x1fd92c…
06-01 06:20:38	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	0¢	$0	0xefd7ad…
06-01 06:19:47	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x4a9055…
05-04 23:15:34	Will Trump say "Farmer" during Small Business Summit?	No	SELL	9	0¢	$0	0xbde225…
05-04 22:04:26	Will Trump say "Farmer" during Small Business Summit?	No	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x0e8fd8…
05-04 21:24:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	201	100¢	$201	0x23947d…
05-04 21:20:18	Will Trump say "Farmer" during Small Business Summit?	No	SELL	640	0¢	$1	0x5fe853…
05-04 21:17:46	Will Trump say "Farmer" during Small Business Summit?	No	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xa7d03c…
05-04 21:17:46	Will Trump say "Farmer" during Small Business Summit?	No	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x879b6c…
05-04 21:17:46	Will Trump say "Farmer" during Small Business Summit?	No	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x1d01e3…
05-04 21:17:44	Will Trump say "Farmer" during Small Business Summit?	No	BUY	445	0¢	$1	0x41e645…
05-04 21:12:32	Will Trump say "Farmer" during Small Business Summit?	No	BUY	1,934	4¢	$79	0x7a69a0…
05-04 21:11:56	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0xe26544…
05-04 11:23:52	Nothing Ever Happens: April	Nothing	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x38fc66…
05-03 12:39:34	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	752	100¢	$750	0xeb3ea1…
05-02 05:46:28	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,560	99¢	$1,551	0x170fd3…
05-02 05:45:46	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	333	99¢	$331	0xa14540…
04-30 00:41:32	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	1,050	100¢	$1,047	0x32e6f3…
04-30 00:40:34	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	SELL	1,049	100¢	$1,048	0xdf9a0d…
04-28 10:34:16	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	831	100¢	$830	0x1daed3…
04-22 11:55:28	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0xb13cdc…
04-22 11:54:48	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	BUY	579	100¢	$579	0xd41976…
04-16 20:04:20	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	Yes	BUY	579	100¢	$578	0x74d712…
04-16 04:26:28	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	531	60¢	$317	0x716d32…
04-16 03:39:38	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	47	67¢	$32	0x6147a9…
04-16 03:39:10	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	33	59¢	$19	0x25b9be…
04-16 03:38:48	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	94	60¢	$56	0x7dbf63…
04-16 03:38:40	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	64	59¢	$38	0xc8ef0e…
04-16 03:37:14	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	SELL	1,049	99¢	$1,040	0x7236e6…
04-15 13:41:16	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	2,097	99¢	$2,082	0xdca723…
04-08 02:43:05	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	2,082	100¢	$2,076	0xd6f43f…
04-05 05:22:13	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	No	BUY	1,453	100¢	$1,451	0x7a6102…
04-03 05:42:07	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	208	71¢	$147	0xfe6c3e…
04-03 04:59:41	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	577	66¢	$383	0xead4c9…
04-03 04:58:23	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	41	68¢	$28	0x154feb…
04-03 04:23:55	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	105	51¢	$54	0xa6427f…
04-03 04:17:23	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	271	53¢	$143	0x30c826…
04-02 23:57:57	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	601	39¢	$234	0xb0cbc1…
04-02 23:56:35	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	8	39¢	$3	0xdb8eb1…
04-02 16:29:27	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	8	38¢	$3	0x06f662…
04-02 13:03:07	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	1	38¢	$1	0x8ee668…
04-02 12:49:07	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	100	38¢	$38	0xf254f7…
04-02 12:48:53	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	50	38¢	$19	0x7714d9…
04-02 12:23:45	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	651	38¢	$246	0x0a5e1d…
04-02 08:44:19	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	500	30¢	$151	0xd1543f…
04-01 05:29:17	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	BUY	1,517	91¢	$1,378	0xa1c632…
04-01 03:36:37	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	BUY	2,227	88¢	$1,963	0x61922b…
03-31 21:52:01	will rut reach 2600 in march	Yes	SELL	1,672	1¢	$13	0x5187c6…
03-31 21:16:53	will rut reach 2600 in march	Yes	BUY	1,672	0¢	$3	0x632e0c…
03-27 18:25:39	will trump say six seven this week march 29	Yes	BUY	190	97¢	$184	0xa7b63a…
03-26 05:46:59	will trump say no no no at the nrcc dinner on march 25 766	No	BUY	335	100¢	$335	0xc266a1…
03-26 05:46:19	will trump say filibuster at the nrcc dinner on march 25 925	No	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0x7ab2e2…