Ironclad-Splendor — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$66

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

97.2%

Resolved

Trades

132

lifetime

Volume

$62.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$475

Open exposure

$98

1 position

First seen

2026-02-25

last 06-09 10:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

67% 0% $-78

Other

33% 100% +$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Netanyahu out by June 30?	No		-100	$-98	98¢	$-98	$-1	06-05 23:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
netanyahu out by march 31 854	3	$6.6K	3,326	3,326	+0	open	—	03-26 02:47
will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	15	$4.8K	3,744	3,121	+623	open	—	04-03 05:42
Netanyahu out by April 30?	3	$4.2K	2,097	2,097	+0	open	—	04-30 00:40
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	2	$4.0K	2,021	2,021	+0	open	—	03-20 00:53
over 600 us flights cancelled on march 25	2	$3.1K	3,102	0	+3,102	open	—	03-26 02:54
will iran strike israel on march 4	2	$3.0K	1,502	1,502	+0	open	—	03-08 01:29
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	4	$2.8K	2,645	200	+2,445	Yes	+$13	05-04 21:11
will trump say waste this week march 1	2	$2.7K	2,746	0	+2,746	open	—	03-04 22:36
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	1	$2.1K	2,082	0	+2,082	open	—	04-08 02:43
will iran strike israel on march 10	2	$2.0K	1,988	0	+1,988	open	—	03-14 18:02
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	2	$1.9K	1,882	0	+1,882	open	—	04-30 00:41
will trump say israel israeli at the nrcc dinner on march 25 639	4	$1.7K	1,752	0	+1,752	open	—	03-26 05:45
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	1	$1.7K	1,733	0	+1,733	open	—	03-03 00:54
us forces enter iran by march 7	1	$1.5K	1,504	0	+1,504	open	—	03-08 04:19
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 7 2026	1	$1.5K	1,502	0	+1,502	open	—	03-08 01:29
will the us next strike iran on february 27 2026 et	1	$1.5K	1,465	0	+1,465	open	—	03-02 05:08
Will the US strike Iran next?	1	$1.5K	1,460	0	+1,460	open	—	03-01 22:31
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	1	$1.5K	1,453	0	+1,453	open	—	04-05 05:22
will the us next strike iran during the week of march 1 7 2026 et	1	$1.4K	1,454	0	+1,454	open	—	02-28 11:26
will trump say mental institution at the nrcc dinner on march 25 298	1	$1.2K	1,174	0	+1,174	open	—	03-26 05:45
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	1	$1.0K	1,007	0	+1,007	open	—	03-04 19:22
will trump say kamikaze during events with japanese pm	1	$855	856	0	+856	open	—	03-20 00:53
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	2	$829	830	0	+830	open	—	04-22 11:55
will trump say filibuster at the nrcc dinner on march 25 925	2	$816	817	0	+817	open	—	03-26 05:46
will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025	1	$785	786	0	+786	open	—	03-01 05:26
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	3	$750	751	0	+751	open	—	03-08 20:49
will trump say affair this week march 22	3	$738	743	0	+743	open	—	03-23 13:21
will epstein data set 13 be released by february 28	1	$669	670	0	+670	open	—	03-01 05:25
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	1	$578	579	0	+579	open	—	04-16 20:04
will trump say favored nation at the nrcc dinner on march 25 338	1	$540	540	0	+540	open	—	03-26 01:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 10:12:45	will any flight depart from imam khomeini international airport by june 8 20260607232624532	Yes	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xd6296f…
06-06 00:52:33	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x5409b3…
06-06 00:30:06	will trump say nuclear 3 times during wisconsin events 20260602174201997	Yes	SELL	65	2¢	$1	0xa056c9…
06-05 23:37:48	will trump say nuclear 3 times during wisconsin events 20260602174201997	Yes	BUY	500	7¢	$35	0x71a5d9…
06-05 23:25:51	will trump say nuclear 3 times during wisconsin events 20260602174201997	Yes	BUY	224	8¢	$18	0x091645…
06-05 23:25:15	will trump say nuclear 3 times during wisconsin events 20260602174201997	Yes	BUY	49	4¢	$2	0xfb8766…
06-05 23:07:16	will trump say nuclear 3 times during wisconsin events 20260602174201997	Yes	BUY	29	5¢	$1	0x57a7b5…
06-05 23:06:01	will trump say nuclear 3 times during wisconsin events 20260602174201997	Yes	BUY	55	5¢	$3	0x3122c9…
06-05 23:04:55	will trump say nuclear 3 times during wisconsin events 20260602174201997	Yes	BUY	16	5¢	$1	0x61b012…
06-05 23:04:54	will trump say nuclear 3 times during wisconsin events 20260602174201997	Yes	BUY	367	5¢	$18	0x90ac63…
06-05 23:04:01	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0xa6478e…
06-05 04:08:49	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x09be30…
06-01 06:29:14	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	0¢	$0	0xcf1ce2…
06-01 06:29:14	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x9521f3…
06-01 06:28:08	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xbf2128…
06-01 06:27:21	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	129	0¢	$0	0xead297…
06-01 06:22:58	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	146	0¢	$0	0xcfcbd9…
06-01 06:22:20	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	116	0¢	$0	0x8a962f…
06-01 06:21:39	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	0¢	$0	0x6b7a69…
06-01 06:21:11	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	145	0¢	$0	0x1fd92c…
06-01 06:20:38	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	0¢	$0	0xefd7ad…
06-01 06:19:47	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x4a9055…
05-04 23:15:34	Will Trump say "Farmer" during Small Business Summit?	No	SELL	9	0¢	$0	0xbde225…
05-04 22:04:26	Will Trump say "Farmer" during Small Business Summit?	No	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x0e8fd8…
05-04 21:24:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	201	100¢	$201	0x23947d…
05-04 21:20:18	Will Trump say "Farmer" during Small Business Summit?	No	SELL	640	0¢	$1	0x5fe853…
05-04 21:17:46	Will Trump say "Farmer" during Small Business Summit?	No	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xa7d03c…
05-04 21:17:46	Will Trump say "Farmer" during Small Business Summit?	No	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x879b6c…
05-04 21:17:46	Will Trump say "Farmer" during Small Business Summit?	No	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x1d01e3…
05-04 21:17:44	Will Trump say "Farmer" during Small Business Summit?	No	BUY	445	0¢	$1	0x41e645…
05-04 21:12:32	Will Trump say "Farmer" during Small Business Summit?	No	BUY	1,934	4¢	$79	0x7a69a0…
05-04 21:11:56	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0xe26544…
05-04 11:23:52	Nothing Ever Happens: April	Nothing	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x38fc66…
05-03 12:39:34	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	752	100¢	$750	0xeb3ea1…
05-02 05:46:28	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,560	99¢	$1,551	0x170fd3…
05-02 05:45:46	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	333	99¢	$331	0xa14540…
04-30 00:41:32	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	1,050	100¢	$1,047	0x32e6f3…
04-30 00:40:34	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	SELL	1,049	100¢	$1,048	0xdf9a0d…
04-28 10:34:16	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	831	100¢	$830	0x1daed3…
04-22 11:55:28	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0xb13cdc…
04-22 11:54:48	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	BUY	579	100¢	$579	0xd41976…
04-16 20:04:20	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	Yes	BUY	579	100¢	$578	0x74d712…
04-16 04:26:28	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	531	60¢	$317	0x716d32…
04-16 03:39:38	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	47	67¢	$32	0x6147a9…
04-16 03:39:10	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	33	59¢	$19	0x25b9be…
04-16 03:38:48	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	94	60¢	$56	0x7dbf63…
04-16 03:38:40	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	64	59¢	$38	0xc8ef0e…
04-16 03:37:14	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	SELL	1,049	99¢	$1,040	0x7236e6…
04-15 13:41:16	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	2,097	99¢	$2,082	0xdca723…
04-08 02:43:05	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	2,082	100¢	$2,076	0xd6f43f…
04-05 05:22:13	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	No	BUY	1,453	100¢	$1,451	0x7a6102…
04-03 05:42:07	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	208	71¢	$147	0xfe6c3e…
04-03 04:59:41	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	577	66¢	$383	0xead4c9…
04-03 04:58:23	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	41	68¢	$28	0x154feb…
04-03 04:23:55	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	105	51¢	$54	0xa6427f…
04-03 04:17:23	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	271	53¢	$143	0x30c826…
04-02 23:57:57	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	601	39¢	$234	0xb0cbc1…
04-02 23:56:35	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	8	39¢	$3	0xdb8eb1…
04-02 16:29:27	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	8	38¢	$3	0x06f662…
04-02 13:03:07	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	1	38¢	$1	0x8ee668…
04-02 12:49:07	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	100	38¢	$38	0xf254f7…
04-02 12:48:53	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	50	38¢	$19	0x7714d9…
04-02 12:23:45	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	651	38¢	$246	0x0a5e1d…
04-02 08:44:19	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	SELL	500	30¢	$151	0xd1543f…
04-01 05:29:17	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	BUY	1,517	91¢	$1,378	0xa1c632…
04-01 03:36:37	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	No	BUY	2,227	88¢	$1,963	0x61922b…
03-31 21:52:01	will rut reach 2600 in march	Yes	SELL	1,672	1¢	$13	0x5187c6…
03-31 21:16:53	will rut reach 2600 in march	Yes	BUY	1,672	0¢	$3	0x632e0c…
03-27 18:25:39	will trump say six seven this week march 29	Yes	BUY	190	97¢	$184	0xa7b63a…
03-26 05:46:59	will trump say no no no at the nrcc dinner on march 25 766	No	BUY	335	100¢	$335	0xc266a1…
03-26 05:46:19	will trump say filibuster at the nrcc dinner on march 25 925	No	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0x7ab2e2…
03-26 05:45:51	will trump say filibuster at the nrcc dinner on march 25 925	No	BUY	567	100¢	$566	0xc439d2…
03-26 05:45:37	will trump say mental institution at the nrcc dinner on march 25 298	No	BUY	1,174	100¢	$1,173	0x53f5a5…
03-26 05:45:21	will trump say israel israeli at the nrcc dinner on march 25 639	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x660b22…
03-26 05:42:37	will trump say israel israeli at the nrcc dinner on march 25 639	No	BUY	394	99¢	$391	0x53ab86…
03-26 05:41:43	will trump say israel israeli at the nrcc dinner on march 25 639	No	BUY	1,240	100¢	$1,238	0x711692…
03-26 05:41:43	will trump say israel israeli at the nrcc dinner on march 25 639	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x582338…
03-26 02:54:27	over 600 us flights cancelled on march 25	Yes	BUY	102	99¢	$101	0xdd6e02…
03-26 02:48:13	over 600 us flights cancelled on march 25	Yes	BUY	3,000	99¢	$2,970	0x3041e6…
03-26 02:47:57	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	SELL	3,326	99¢	$3,302	0x554429…
03-26 01:47:59	will trump say favored nation at the nrcc dinner on march 25 338	Yes	BUY	540	100¢	$540	0x2d6459…
03-26 01:47:49	will trump say hell 8 times at the nrcc dinner on march 25	Yes	BUY	197	100¢	$196	0x244d98…
03-25 18:23:53	will leavitt say regime 10 times during the next white house press briefing	Yes	BUY	236	100¢	$236	0x951fa9…
03-25 18:23:45	will leavitt say go ahead 5 times during the next white house press briefing	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x2f4073…
03-25 18:23:41	will leavitt say go ahead 5 times during the next white house press briefing	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0xdb094d…
03-25 03:54:17	will melania say cooperation during fostering the future together event on march 24	No	BUY	135	100¢	$135	0x1e170d…
03-25 03:54:09	will melania say gaza or palestine during fostering the future together event on march 24	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xb4a831…
03-25 03:54:01	will melania say star during fostering the future together event on march 24	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x09638a…
03-25 03:53:55	will melania say 250 or 250th during fostering the future together event on march 24	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x1bd08c…
03-25 03:41:55	russia military action against kyiv municipality by march 23	Yes	BUY	250	4¢	$11	0xbbc0f3…
03-24 23:23:57	will trump meet with delcy rodrguez by march 31 446	Yes	BUY	12	20¢	$2	0x7574a0…
03-24 23:08:21	will trump meet with delcy rodrguez by march 31 446	Yes	BUY	47	18¢	$8	0xe3d750…
03-23 13:21:01	will trump say affair this week march 22	No	BUY	422	100¢	$420	0x4f9b0d…
03-23 13:20:43	will trump say affair this week march 22	No	BUY	73	100¢	$72	0x1ce930…
03-23 13:20:37	will trump say affair this week march 22	No	BUY	248	99¢	$245	0x97e013…
03-23 13:20:27	will trump say armada this week march 22	No	BUY	13	90¢	$12	0x361f1e…
03-20 20:38:05	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	1,282	98¢	$1,263	0x23f8c9…
03-20 00:53:59	will trump say kamikaze during events with japanese pm	No	BUY	856	100¢	$855	0x2bf2da…
03-20 00:53:53	will trump say stock market during events with japanese pm	No	BUY	163	100¢	$163	0xccb7d4…
03-20 00:53:43	will trump say hiroshima or nagasaki during events with japanese pm	No	BUY	357	100¢	$356	0xbb9f15…