Complicated-Brushfire — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$145

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

79.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$4.55K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$49

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 05-31 07:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Other

82% 87% +$89

Politics

14% 100% +$68

Crypto

5% 47% -$12

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-31).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran strike on israel by january 15	2	$556	307	307	+0	No	+$57	01-16 13:30
spx up or down on january 14 2026	4	$488	326	326	+0	Down	-$12	01-14 15:28
bun koe bay 2026 01 14 koe	2	$477	250	250	+0	No	+$22	01-14 22:55
bun bay wol 2026 01 11 wol	2	$410	207	207	+0	No	+$4	01-11 21:40
elon musk tweets january 8 january 10 240plus	2	$384	195	195	+0	No	-$2	01-10 05:02
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 580plus	1	$227	228	0	+228	No	+$2	01-13 16:03
spx up or down on january 12 2026	1	$211	227	0	+227	Up	+$16	01-12 19:23
sea int nap 2026 01 11 nap	1	$207	211	0	+211	No	+$4	01-11 21:41
bun fre hsv 2026 01 10 hsv	1	$191	203	0	+203	No	+$12	01-10 15:49
elon musk tweets january 8 january 10 115 139	1	$191	191	0	+191	No	+$0	01-10 05:08
spx up or down on january 8 2026	1	$178	193	0	+193	Up	+$15	01-08 20:59
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 560 579	1	$166	178	0	+178	No	+$12	01-06 12:25
spx up or down on january 5 2026	1	$164	166	0	+166	Up	+$2	01-05 17:49
spx up or down on january 2 2026	1	$155	163	0	+163	Up	+$8	01-02 14:48
epl sun mac 2026 01 01 sun	1	$150	155	0	+155	No	+$5	01-01 20:05
lal rea bet 2026 01 04 bet	1	$129	130	0	+130	No	+$1	01-04 16:27
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	2	$61	93	93	+0	No	+$11	01-14 17:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	4	$23	21	21	+0	Down	+$3	05-30 22:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	4	$17	56	56	+0	Up	-$3	05-30 22:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	2	$16	13	13	+0	Down	+$6	05-30 22:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	2	$12	10	10	+0	Down	+$2	05-30 22:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	2	$11	12	12	+0	Up	+$1	05-30 22:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	2	$10	11	11	+0	Up	+$0	05-30 22:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	2	$10	5	5	+0	Up	$0	05-30 22:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	2	$9	11	11	+0	Down	-$1	05-30 20:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	1	$5	62	0	+62	Down	-$5	05-30 22:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Up	+$4	05-30 20:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Down	+$5	05-31 05:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Down	-$5	05-31 07:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	1	$5	11	0	+11	Down	-$5	05-30 22:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-31 07:38:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	SELL	1	23¢	$0	0x5f519e…
05-31 07:35:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x87d7e9…
05-31 07:34:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x431970…
05-31 07:33:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x9c553e…
05-31 07:25:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x753258…
05-31 07:23:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	SELL	12	2¢	$0	0x9d31b2…
05-31 07:23:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x1e91bd…
05-31 07:15:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xed1282…
05-31 07:13:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	SELL	4	13¢	$0	0x680962…
05-31 07:11:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x71217b…
05-31 07:09:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x3a1562…
05-31 07:08:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x35df0f…
05-31 06:57:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0x07a90e…
05-31 06:56:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x70ed77…
05-31 06:49:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xb24260…
05-31 06:44:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	SELL	4	42¢	$2	0x40a170…
05-31 06:43:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x059ba5…
05-31 06:23:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x949984…
05-31 06:16:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x88a121…
05-31 06:10:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x734593…
05-31 06:08:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	SELL	3	53¢	$1	0x8ccaca…
05-31 06:08:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xbd238c…
05-31 06:03:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xdb8ef2…
05-31 06:03:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	SELL	4	15¢	$1	0xf60fc2…
05-31 06:02:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x043b6e…
05-31 06:00:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xff6e1f…
05-31 05:57:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x1e5fb3…
05-31 05:53:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	SELL	4	8¢	$0	0x4c693f…
05-31 05:52:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x57bb46…
05-31 05:51:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	SELL	3	58¢	$2	0x78c41e…
05-31 05:51:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x576b09…
05-31 05:49:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	SELL	3	66¢	$2	0xed6a5e…
05-31 05:46:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xeb01d6…
05-31 05:41:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x73c668…
05-31 05:38:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0xb8d26d…
05-31 05:38:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x4b5c8d…
05-31 05:37:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xe89190…
05-31 05:36:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xfdefe8…
05-31 05:27:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xc22436…
05-30 22:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x82e46d…
05-30 22:58:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xf360e9…
05-30 22:54:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	SELL	10	64¢	$7	0x474aad…
05-30 22:53:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x2a9191…
05-30 22:48:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	SELL	31	8¢	$2	0xe96a71…
05-30 22:46:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	SELL	25	20¢	$5	0x410f3f…
05-30 22:46:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xdae751…
05-30 22:46:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x3e4414…
05-30 22:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	SELL	12	63¢	$7	0xbffb4b…
05-30 22:43:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x3e844e…
05-30 22:42:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	SELL	9	57¢	$5	0x2e76e3…
05-30 22:42:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x0455aa…
05-30 22:37:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xa021ec…
05-30 22:26:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xb5baff…
05-30 22:23:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	11	45¢	$5	0x1a49ff…
05-30 22:23:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x6dea39…
05-30 22:17:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x0849d3…
05-30 22:14:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	SELL	13	84¢	$11	0xb41b99…
05-30 22:13:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x770245…
05-30 22:08:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	SELL	12	52¢	$6	0x304b04…
05-30 22:07:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x944611…
05-30 22:02:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x6cf508…
05-30 21:58:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x448d3a…
05-30 21:40:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x1f8c12…
05-30 21:31:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xf0f34c…
05-30 20:57:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x00eb69…
05-30 20:45:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x4142ac…
05-30 20:44:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	11	33¢	$4	0x74678f…
05-30 20:43:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x156380…
01-16 13:30:24	iran strike on israel by january 15	No	SELL	307	100¢	$307	0xbc92d3…
01-14 22:57:12	iran strike on israel by january 15	No	BUY	307	81¢	$250	0x03cc84…
01-14 22:55:56	bun koe bay 2026 01 14 koe	No	SELL	250	100¢	$250	0x8b2d74…
01-14 20:48:08	bun koe bay 2026 01 14 koe	No	BUY	250	91¢	$228	0x7a8fcb…
01-14 17:16:44	us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	Yes	SELL	93	39¢	$36	0xf8feb5…
01-14 16:32:18	us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	Yes	BUY	93	27¢	$25	0x265627…
01-14 15:28:22	spx up or down on january 14 2026	Down	SELL	235	92¢	$216	0x55c837…
01-14 15:00:30	spx up or down on january 14 2026	Down	BUY	235	85¢	$200	0x7eda8b…
01-14 14:44:46	spx up or down on january 14 2026	Up	SELL	91	24¢	$22	0x60149a…
01-14 02:57:48	spx up or down on january 14 2026	Up	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0xb81db1…
01-13 16:03:43	elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 580plus	No	BUY	228	99¢	$227	0xf37218…
01-12 19:23:55	spx up or down on january 12 2026	Up	BUY	227	93¢	$211	0x8030d3…
01-11 21:41:08	sea int nap 2026 01 11 nap	No	BUY	211	98¢	$207	0xe52ea8…
01-11 21:40:42	bun bay wol 2026 01 11 wol	No	SELL	207	100¢	$207	0x674589…
01-11 17:24:24	bun bay wol 2026 01 11 wol	No	BUY	207	98¢	$203	0x970845…
01-10 15:49:16	bun fre hsv 2026 01 10 hsv	No	BUY	203	94¢	$191	0x46f853…
01-10 05:08:40	elon musk tweets january 8 january 10 115 139	No	BUY	191	100¢	$191	0xee9651…
01-10 05:02:50	elon musk tweets january 8 january 10 240plus	No	SELL	195	98¢	$191	0xaa4eea…
01-10 01:26:06	elon musk tweets january 8 january 10 240plus	No	BUY	195	99¢	$193	0x43ea25…
01-08 20:59:26	spx up or down on january 8 2026	Up	BUY	193	92¢	$178	0xc8a45d…
01-06 12:25:53	elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 560 579	No	BUY	178	93¢	$166	0x158cbb…
01-05 17:49:43	spx up or down on january 5 2026	Up	BUY	166	99¢	$164	0x66ab0e…
01-04 16:27:17	lal rea bet 2026 01 04 bet	No	BUY	130	99¢	$129	0x57bec6…
01-02 14:48:17	spx up or down on january 2 2026	Up	BUY	163	95¢	$155	0xad2a3c…
01-01 20:05:53	epl sun mac 2026 01 01 sun	No	BUY	155	97¢	$150	0x2b3272…