Plump-Alfalfa-Recession — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$13

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

62.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$106

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-04

last 05-05 01:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

90% 67% $-13

Other

10% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 27 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	3	$16	32	4	+28	Up	$-8	05-05 00:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	4	$11	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	05-04 23:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$10	179	179	+0	open	—	05-04 19:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	3	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	05-04 19:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	2	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	05-04 19:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	1	$5	500	0	+500	Down	$-5	05-05 01:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	05-04 19:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	Up	+$0	05-05 00:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	1	$5	6	0	+6	Down	+$1	05-04 23:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-04 19:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	1	$5	6	0	+6	Down	+$1	05-04 23:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	2	$5	3	3	+0	Up	+$1	05-04 20:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	2	$4	2	2	+0	Down	+$0	05-04 21:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	2	$4	2	2	+0	Down	+$0	05-04 23:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	1	$3	7	0	+7	Down	$-3	05-05 00:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	1	$2	4	0	+4	Up	$-2	05-04 23:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	1	$2	2	0	+2	Up	+$0	05-04 21:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	05-04 19:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	1	$1	6	0	+6	open	—	05-04 19:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-05 01:15:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xedc1c4…
05-05 00:06:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x0cda5e…
05-05 00:03:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xf32850…
05-05 00:01:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x82e204…
05-04 23:59:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	28	35¢	$10	0x77b272…
05-04 23:57:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x5bdfaa…
05-04 23:56:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x673edc…
05-04 23:51:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xb323a5…
05-04 23:51:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x917843…
05-04 23:51:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xef6a5f…
05-04 23:46:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xfa35e9…
05-04 23:45:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x334278…
05-04 23:43:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x3b71db…
05-04 23:36:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x119e7f…
05-04 23:31:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x7c594c…
05-04 21:22:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x8fde30…
05-04 21:20:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x9ec4a7…
05-04 21:18:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xec4340…
05-04 20:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x3f099b…
05-04 19:56:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x3257c6…
05-04 19:52:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x302b27…
05-04 19:50:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x0f1459…
05-04 19:48:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x686f56…
05-04 19:33:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x3112ea…
05-04 19:30:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xb50f6d…
05-04 19:28:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x2cf3f8…
05-04 19:26:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xe60d42…
05-04 19:22:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x983f1c…
05-04 19:13:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	179	3¢	$5	0x8eb344…
05-04 19:08:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xfdca35…
05-04 18:52:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	179	3¢	$5	0xd22935…