Improbable-Medium — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$812

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

87.1%

Resolved

1,876

Trades

6,715

lifetime

Volume

$163.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-08

last 08-04 02:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

83% 99% +$267

Other

12% 95% +$165

Sports

4% 25% +$380

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 1268 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (11) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	4	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	Dplus KIA	+$88	05-13 10:59
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	2	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-14 06:56
Valorant: LOUD vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha	2	$1.3K	916	916	+0	LOUD	+$0	05-10 11:47
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	2	$1.2K	1,000	1,000	+0	Cavaliers	$-10	05-13 23:30
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets	2	$1.2K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-14 14:32
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	2	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	Toronto Blue Jays	$-10	05-13 22:37
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular Season	3	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	LYON	$-10	05-10 19:30
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5	2	$960	1,000	1,000	+0	Over	$-40	05-12 14:52
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B	3	$849	629	629	+0	Legacy	$-6	05-13 20:36
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	2	$843	675	675	+0	BetBoom Team	$-7	05-13 19:36
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs	2	$800	899	899	+0	open	—	05-14 15:05
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	2	$799	512	512	+0	open	—	05-14 06:56
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves	2	$770	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-14 14:47
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	2	$770	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-14 13:31
btc updown 5m 1785246300	1	$747	755	0	+755	open	—	07-28 13:50
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	2	$720	1,000	1,000	+0	paiN	$-20	05-11 03:31
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs	4	$699	712	712	+0	open	—	05-14 09:44
btc updown 5m 1785219900	18	$692	699	0	+699	open	—	07-28 06:30
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B	3	$650	691	691	+0	open	—	05-14 08:53
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	6	$609	600	600	+0	open	—	05-19 06:20
btc updown 5m 1785249600	1	$604	610	0	+610	open	—	07-28 14:43
btc updown 5m 1785248400	2	$602	608	0	+608	open	—	07-28 14:23
btc updown 5m 1785250200	1	$602	608	0	+608	open	—	07-28 14:55
btc updown 5m 1785239100	12	$560	566	0	+566	open	—	07-28 11:48
Avalanche vs. Wild	1	$560	1,000	0	+1,000	Avalanche	+$440	05-11 14:28
btc updown 5m 1785401100	13	$546	551	0	+551	open	—	07-30 08:50
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Team Envy (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 1	2	$534	600	600	+0	open	—	05-13 23:30
btc updown 5m 1785384000	7	$527	532	0	+532	open	—	07-30 04:05
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B	2	$495	505	505	+0	Xtreme Gaming	+$0	05-13 01:45
btc updown 5m 1785399900	1	$435	439	0	+439	open	—	07-30 08:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-04 02:43:42	xrp updown 15m 1785810600	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x78ebf8…
08-04 01:54:12	doge updown 5m 1785808200	Up	BUY	73	99¢	$73	0x2c27f3…
08-04 01:33:56	hype updown 5m 1785807000	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xfabb17…
08-04 01:03:41	btc updown 5m 1785805200	Up	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xcbf7ad…
08-04 01:03:41	btc updown 5m 1785805200	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x952177…
08-04 01:03:41	btc updown 5m 1785805200	Up	BUY	82	99¢	$81	0x6a0980…
08-04 01:03:41	btc updown 5m 1785805200	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5c6290…
08-04 01:03:41	btc updown 5m 1785805200	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3eab09…
08-04 01:03:41	btc updown 5m 1785805200	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x086fa2…
08-04 01:03:41	btc updown 5m 1785805200	Up	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x05ecf2…
08-04 00:44:03	btc updown 15m 1785803400	Down	BUY	123	99¢	$122	0x7d4375…
08-04 00:43:38	btc updown 15m 1785803400	Down	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xef6bbf…
08-04 00:39:59	btc updown 5m 1785803700	Down	BUY	45	99¢	$45	0x23ed41…
08-04 00:39:05	eth updown 5m 1785803700	Down	BUY	64	99¢	$63	0xad3508…
08-04 00:39:05	eth updown 5m 1785803700	Down	BUY	103	99¢	$102	0x24ca98…
08-04 00:13:41	btc updown 5m 1785802200	Down	BUY	222	99¢	$219	0xcb75f5…
08-04 00:10:09	btc updown 5m 1785801900	Down	BUY	248	99¢	$246	0xa5c50b…
08-03 23:59:59	bnb up or down august 3 2026 7pm et	Down	BUY	93	100¢	$93	0xb8a7fb…
08-03 23:40:05	btc updown 5m 1785800100	Down	BUY	220	99¢	$218	0xddeee9…
08-03 23:18:53	btc updown 5m 1785798900	Up	BUY	220	99¢	$218	0xe02460…
08-03 23:07:15	ethereum up or down august 3 2026 6pm et	Down	BUY	85	100¢	$84	0x6916ac…
08-03 22:30:00	btc updown 5m 1785795900	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x2d8624…
08-03 21:25:00	btc updown 5m 1785792000	Down	BUY	92	99¢	$91	0x0e8192…
08-03 19:00:15	bnb up or down august 3 2026 2pm et	Down	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x25d461…
08-03 17:19:59	btc updown 5m 1785777300	Down	BUY	91	99¢	$91	0x8af027…
08-03 16:09:02	btc updown 5m 1785773100	Down	BUY	219	99¢	$217	0x88b015…
08-03 15:54:59	btc updown 5m 1785772200	Down	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0xc7572b…
08-03 15:49:59	btc updown 5m 1785771900	Down	BUY	73	99¢	$72	0x848e89…
08-03 15:19:59	btc updown 5m 1785770100	Down	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0xf85379…
08-03 15:15:00	btc updown 5m 1785769800	Down	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xdba5bf…
08-03 14:24:59	btc updown 5m 1785766800	Up	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0xffd287…
08-03 13:53:50	btc updown 5m 1785765000	Up	BUY	152	99¢	$151	0x186288…
08-03 13:35:06	btc updown 5m 1785763800	Down	BUY	189	100¢	$189	0x7b4bd9…
08-03 13:31:26	btc updown 5m 1785763500	Down	BUY	270	100¢	$270	0x4b135a…
08-03 13:30:00	hype updown 5m 1785763500	Down	BUY	63	100¢	$63	0xd2e516…
08-03 12:04:59	btc updown 5m 1785758400	Down	BUY	73	99¢	$72	0x440fe2…
08-03 11:28:53	hype updown 5m 1785756300	Down	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x2eb465…
08-03 11:00:02	sol updown 5m 1785754500	Up	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xac54b5…
08-03 10:45:45	btc updown 15m 1785753000	Down	BUY	84	100¢	$84	0x62378f…
08-03 10:05:02	btc updown 5m 1785751200	Down	BUY	137	99¢	$135	0x832883…
08-03 08:40:02	btc updown 5m 1785746100	Up	BUY	135	100¢	$134	0x69d58f…
08-03 08:23:03	eth updown 5m 1785745200	Down	BUY	163	99¢	$161	0xb7f214…
08-03 07:10:03	btc updown 5m 1785740700	Down	BUY	43	99¢	$43	0x39e2c6…
08-03 07:03:45	eth updown 5m 1785740400	Down	BUY	115	99¢	$114	0xf7a654…
08-03 07:03:45	eth updown 5m 1785740400	Down	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xecc413…
08-03 07:03:42	eth updown 5m 1785740400	Down	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0xb55641…
08-03 06:40:02	btc updown 5m 1785738900	Down	BUY	268	100¢	$268	0x607518…
08-03 05:59:59	sol updown 15m 1785735900	Up	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x6667a8…
08-03 05:05:02	btc updown 5m 1785733200	Up	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0x98fd20…
08-03 04:53:33	hype updown 5m 1785732600	Down	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xc34911…
08-03 04:30:03	sol updown 15m 1785730500	Up	BUY	51	100¢	$51	0x0c527a…
08-03 03:54:59	btc updown 5m 1785729000	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x91d2a6…
08-03 03:47:35	btc updown 5m 1785728700	Down	BUY	210	99¢	$207	0xe3983e…
08-03 03:47:09	doge updown 5m 1785728700	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xaf228b…
08-03 03:45:02	btc updown 5m 1785728400	Up	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x21b0ac…
08-03 03:30:11	btc updown 5m 1785727500	Down	BUY	34	99¢	$33	0xf5b16c…
08-03 02:28:27	btc updown 15m 1785723300	Down	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x9d5a7c…
08-03 02:28:24	btc updown 15m 1785723300	Down	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x8e4a3a…
08-03 02:28:24	btc updown 15m 1785723300	Down	BUY	147	99¢	$146	0x5c4b22…
08-03 01:30:00	btc updown 5m 1785720300	Down	BUY	54	99¢	$53	0x59f43d…
08-03 01:20:00	btc updown 5m 1785719700	Down	BUY	89	99¢	$88	0x89b0fe…
08-03 01:08:05	btc updown 5m 1785719100	Down	BUY	160	99¢	$158	0xf5c76a…
08-03 01:08:03	btc updown 5m 1785719100	Down	BUY	54	99¢	$54	0x087560…
08-03 00:55:00	btc updown 5m 1785718200	Down	BUY	89	99¢	$88	0x5c29a4…
08-03 00:28:30	btc updown 5m 1785716700	Down	BUY	213	99¢	$211	0x86c5e4…
08-02 23:18:54	eth updown 5m 1785712500	Up	BUY	160	99¢	$158	0xb255f4…
08-02 23:05:03	btc updown 5m 1785711600	Down	BUY	188	99¢	$186	0xf55a6b…
08-02 23:05:03	btc updown 5m 1785711600	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x2b0731…
08-02 22:38:03	hype updown 5m 1785710100	Down	BUY	27	99¢	$26	0x743bc9…
08-02 22:28:47	eth updown 5m 1785709500	Down	BUY	94	99¢	$93	0xe4739e…
08-02 22:28:26	doge updown 5m 1785709500	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x836bc1…
08-02 22:28:20	btc updown 5m 1785709500	Down	BUY	212	99¢	$210	0xb5b9dc…
08-02 22:24:59	btc updown 5m 1785709200	Down	BUY	83	99¢	$82	0xf49d05…
08-02 22:20:00	eth updown 5m 1785708900	Down	BUY	78	99¢	$77	0x2e61d7…
08-02 22:15:02	btc updown 5m 1785708600	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x736ae7…
08-02 22:12:23	sol updown 15m 1785708000	Up	BUY	28	99¢	$27	0x421005…
08-02 22:10:02	eth updown 5m 1785708300	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0xedbfa4…
08-02 22:09:59	doge updown 5m 1785708300	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x82003c…
08-02 22:03:03	btc updown 5m 1785708000	Up	BUY	124	99¢	$123	0x4c1ea4…
08-02 22:03:00	btc updown 5m 1785708000	Up	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xbde2f4…
08-02 22:02:15	eth updown 5m 1785708000	Up	BUY	149	99¢	$148	0x73ba01…
08-02 21:57:44	btc updown 15m 1785707100	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe8742b…
08-02 21:53:57	eth updown 5m 1785707400	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0xb038ef…
08-02 21:43:30	bnb updown 5m 1785706800	Up	BUY	62	99¢	$62	0xf1a198…
08-02 21:43:06	hype updown 5m 1785706800	Up	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x3253f9…
08-02 21:03:11	bitcoin up or down august 2 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	81	100¢	$81	0xa44e1d…
08-02 20:40:09	btc updown 5m 1785702900	Down	BUY	260	100¢	$260	0x11b96b…
08-02 19:55:15	btc updown 5m 1785700200	Down	BUY	53	99¢	$52	0x54e482…
08-02 19:43:53	hype updown 5m 1785699600	Up	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xf17ac3…
08-02 19:35:12	btc updown 5m 1785699000	Up	BUY	87	99¢	$86	0x78355d…
08-02 19:29:59	hype updown 5m 1785698700	Up	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0xe3e1e3…
08-02 18:43:12	btc updown 5m 1785696000	Up	BUY	56	99¢	$55	0xb27914…
08-02 18:43:12	btc updown 5m 1785696000	Up	BUY	153	99¢	$152	0x7bf0c7…
08-02 17:50:02	btc updown 5m 1785692700	Up	BUY	87	99¢	$86	0x5d5324…
08-02 17:30:02	doge updown 15m 1785690900	Up	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x8f2419…
08-02 16:40:44	btc updown 5m 1785688500	Up	BUY	78	99¢	$77	0xd9d8f5…
08-02 16:30:05	btc updown 5m 1785687900	Down	BUY	86	100¢	$86	0x0dfa0e…
08-02 16:30:02	btc updown 15m 1785687300	Up	BUY	49	99¢	$48	0xf8bb03…
08-02 16:10:14	bitcoin up or down august 2 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	81	100¢	$81	0x4d4017…
08-02 16:04:54	doge updown 5m 1785686400	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2b385b…