Improbable-Medium — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$966

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

85.6%

Resolved

4,525

Trades

6,988

lifetime

Volume

$185.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$27

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-08

last 08-04 02:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 29 days

Categories

Crypto

84% 84% +$613

Other

12% 85% +$8

Sports

4% 14% +$350

Politics

0% 0% -$6

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-04).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	4	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	Dplus KIA	+$88	05-13 10:59
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?	11	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	-$60	05-13 17:55
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	2	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	Weibo Gaming	-$20	05-14 06:56
Valorant: LOUD vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha	2	$1.3K	916	916	+0	LOUD	+$0	05-10 11:47
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	2	$1.2K	1,000	1,000	+0	Cavaliers	-$10	05-13 23:30
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets	2	$1.2K	1,000	1,000	+0	New York Mets	-$10	05-14 14:32
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	2	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	Toronto Blue Jays	-$10	05-13 22:37
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular Season	3	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	LYON	-$10	05-10 19:30
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5	2	$960	1,000	1,000	+0	Over	-$40	05-12 14:52
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B	3	$849	629	629	+0	Legacy	-$6	05-13 20:36
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	2	$843	675	675	+0	BetBoom Team	-$7	05-13 19:36
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs	2	$800	899	899	+0	Team Falcons	-$9	05-14 15:05
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	2	$799	512	512	+0	KT Rolster	-$10	05-14 06:56
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	2	$770	1,000	1,000	+0	Los Angeles Dodgers	-$10	05-14 13:31
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves	2	$770	1,000	1,000	+0	Chicago Cubs	-$10	05-14 14:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	4	$760	767	0	+767	Up	+$6	07-29 01:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	3	$753	761	0	+761	Down	+$8	07-29 03:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-28 13:45 UTC	1	$747	755	0	+755	Down	+$8	07-28 13:50
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	2	$720	1,000	1,000	+0	paiN	-$20	05-11 03:31
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs	4	$699	712	712	+0	GIANTX	-$13	05-14 09:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-28 06:25 UTC	18	$692	699	0	+699	Up	+$7	07-28 06:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	4	$660	667	0	+667	Up	+$7	07-29 00:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	7	$659	665	0	+665	Down	+$7	07-29 01:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	1	$657	664	0	+664	Up	+$7	07-28 23:48
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B	3	$650	691	691	+0	PARIVISION	-$14	05-14 08:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	1	$615	621	0	+621	Up	+$6	07-29 02:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	1	$610	616	0	+616	Down	+$6	07-29 02:17
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	6	$609	600	600	+0	No	-$7	05-19 06:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	1	$609	615	0	+615	Down	+$6	07-29 04:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	1	$609	615	0	+615	Up	+$6	07-29 02:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-04 02:43:42	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-04 02:30 UTC	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x78ebf8…
08-04 01:54:12	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 01:50 UTC	Up	BUY	73	99¢	$73	0x2c27f3…
08-04 01:33:56	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 01:30 UTC	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xfabb17…
08-04 01:03:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 01:00 UTC	Up	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xcbf7ad…
08-04 01:03:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 01:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x952177…
08-04 01:03:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 01:00 UTC	Up	BUY	82	99¢	$81	0x6a0980…
08-04 01:03:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 01:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5c6290…
08-04 01:03:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 01:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3eab09…
08-04 01:03:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 01:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x086fa2…
08-04 01:03:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 01:00 UTC	Up	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x05ecf2…
08-04 00:44:03	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-04 00:30 UTC	Down	BUY	123	99¢	$122	0x7d4375…
08-04 00:43:38	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-04 00:30 UTC	Down	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xef6bbf…
08-04 00:39:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 00:35 UTC	Down	BUY	45	99¢	$45	0x23ed41…
08-04 00:39:05	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 00:35 UTC	Down	BUY	64	99¢	$63	0xad3508…
08-04 00:39:05	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 00:35 UTC	Down	BUY	103	99¢	$102	0x24ca98…
08-04 00:13:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 00:10 UTC	Down	BUY	222	99¢	$219	0xcb75f5…
08-04 00:10:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 00:05 UTC	Down	BUY	248	99¢	$246	0xa5c50b…
08-03 23:59:59	bnb up or down august 3 2026 7pm et	Down	BUY	93	100¢	$93	0xb8a7fb…
08-03 23:40:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 23:35 UTC	Down	BUY	220	99¢	$218	0xddeee9…
08-03 23:18:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 23:15 UTC	Up	BUY	220	99¢	$218	0xe02460…
08-03 23:07:15	ethereum up or down august 3 2026 6pm et	Down	BUY	85	100¢	$84	0x6916ac…
08-03 22:30:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 22:25 UTC	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x2d8624…
08-03 21:45:02	Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xc2affa…
08-03 21:25:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 21:20 UTC	Down	BUY	92	99¢	$91	0x0e8192…
08-03 19:00:15	bnb up or down august 3 2026 2pm et	Down	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x25d461…
08-03 18:04:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	92	99¢	$91	0x31a9e6…
08-03 17:19:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 17:15 UTC	Down	BUY	91	99¢	$91	0x8af027…
08-03 16:09:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 16:05 UTC	Down	BUY	219	99¢	$217	0x88b015…
08-03 15:54:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 15:50 UTC	Down	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0xc7572b…
08-03 15:49:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	73	99¢	$72	0x848e89…
08-03 15:19:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0xf85379…
08-03 15:15:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 15:10 UTC	Down	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xdba5bf…
08-03 14:24:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 14:20 UTC	Up	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0xffd287…
08-03 13:53:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 13:50 UTC	Up	BUY	152	99¢	$151	0x186288…
08-03 13:35:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 13:30 UTC	Down	BUY	189	100¢	$189	0x7b4bd9…
08-03 13:31:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 13:25 UTC	Down	BUY	270	100¢	$270	0x4b135a…
08-03 13:30:00	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 13:25 UTC	Down	BUY	63	100¢	$63	0xd2e516…
08-03 12:04:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	73	99¢	$72	0x440fe2…
08-03 11:28:53	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 11:25 UTC	Down	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x2eb465…
08-03 11:00:02	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 10:55 UTC	Up	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xac54b5…
08-03 10:45:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-03 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	84	100¢	$84	0x62378f…
08-03 10:19:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	136	99¢	$135	0xb9f797…
08-03 10:05:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	137	99¢	$135	0x832883…
08-03 08:40:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 08:35 UTC	Up	BUY	135	100¢	$134	0x69d58f…
08-03 08:23:03	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 08:20 UTC	Down	BUY	163	99¢	$161	0xb7f214…
08-03 07:45:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0xc86858…
08-03 07:10:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 07:05 UTC	Down	BUY	43	99¢	$43	0x39e2c6…
08-03 07:03:45	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	115	99¢	$114	0xf7a654…
08-03 07:03:45	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xecc413…
08-03 07:03:42	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0xb55641…
08-03 06:40:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 06:35 UTC	Down	BUY	268	100¢	$268	0x607518…
08-03 05:59:59	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-03 05:45 UTC	Up	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x6667a8…
08-03 05:05:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 05:00 UTC	Up	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0x98fd20…
08-03 04:53:33	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 04:50 UTC	Down	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xc34911…
08-03 04:40:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd828f6…
08-03 04:40:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x7c1bfc…
08-03 04:40:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	106	99¢	$105	0xbbb9e8…
08-03 04:40:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0e4efb…
08-03 04:40:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0a0fb4…
08-03 04:40:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x8a8f41…
08-03 04:30:03	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-03 04:15 UTC	Up	BUY	51	100¢	$51	0x0c527a…
08-03 03:54:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 03:50 UTC	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x91d2a6…
08-03 03:47:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	210	99¢	$207	0xe3983e…
08-03 03:47:09	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xaf228b…
08-03 03:45:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 03:40 UTC	Up	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x21b0ac…
08-03 03:30:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 03:25 UTC	Down	BUY	34	99¢	$33	0xf5b16c…
08-03 02:28:27	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-03 02:15 UTC	Down	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x9d5a7c…
08-03 02:28:24	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-03 02:15 UTC	Down	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x8e4a3a…
08-03 02:28:24	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-03 02:15 UTC	Down	BUY	147	99¢	$146	0x5c4b22…
08-03 01:30:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 01:25 UTC	Down	BUY	54	99¢	$53	0x59f43d…
08-03 01:20:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 01:15 UTC	Down	BUY	89	99¢	$88	0x89b0fe…
08-03 01:08:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 01:05 UTC	Down	BUY	160	99¢	$158	0xf5c76a…
08-03 01:08:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 01:05 UTC	Down	BUY	54	99¢	$54	0x087560…
08-03 00:55:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 00:50 UTC	Down	BUY	89	99¢	$88	0x5c29a4…
08-03 00:30:03	Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	188	100¢	$188	0x45af81…
08-03 00:28:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 00:25 UTC	Down	BUY	213	99¢	$211	0x86c5e4…
08-02 23:18:54	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 23:15 UTC	Up	BUY	160	99¢	$158	0xb255f4…
08-02 23:05:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 23:00 UTC	Down	BUY	188	99¢	$186	0xf55a6b…
08-02 23:05:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 23:00 UTC	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x2b0731…
08-02 22:38:03	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 22:35 UTC	Down	BUY	27	99¢	$26	0x743bc9…
08-02 22:28:47	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 22:25 UTC	Down	BUY	94	99¢	$93	0xe4739e…
08-02 22:28:26	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 22:25 UTC	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x836bc1…
08-02 22:28:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 22:25 UTC	Down	BUY	212	99¢	$210	0xb5b9dc…
08-02 22:24:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 22:20 UTC	Down	BUY	83	99¢	$82	0xf49d05…
08-02 22:20:00	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 22:15 UTC	Down	BUY	78	99¢	$77	0x2e61d7…
08-02 22:15:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 22:10 UTC	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x736ae7…
08-02 22:12:23	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-02 22:00 UTC	Up	BUY	28	99¢	$27	0x421005…
08-02 22:10:02	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 22:05 UTC	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0xedbfa4…
08-02 22:09:59	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 22:05 UTC	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x82003c…
08-02 22:03:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 22:00 UTC	Up	BUY	124	99¢	$123	0x4c1ea4…
08-02 22:03:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 22:00 UTC	Up	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xbde2f4…
08-02 22:02:15	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 22:00 UTC	Up	BUY	149	99¢	$148	0x73ba01…
08-02 21:57:44	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-02 21:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe8742b…
08-02 21:53:57	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 21:50 UTC	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0xb038ef…
08-02 21:43:30	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 21:40 UTC	Up	BUY	62	99¢	$62	0xf1a198…
08-02 21:43:06	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 21:40 UTC	Up	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x3253f9…
08-02 21:25:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	47	99¢	$46	0x5c16f6…
08-02 21:03:11	bitcoin up or down august 2 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	81	100¢	$81	0xa44e1d…
08-02 20:40:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 20:35 UTC	Down	BUY	260	100¢	$260	0x11b96b…
08-02 19:55:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 19:50 UTC	Down	BUY	53	99¢	$52	0x54e482…