Improbable-Medium — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$812

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

87.1%

Resolved

1,876

Trades

6,071

lifetime

Volume

$113.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-08

last 05-20 05:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

77% 99% +$267

Other

17% 95% +$165

Sports

6% 25% +$380

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 1268 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	4	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	Dplus KIA	+$88	05-13 10:59
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	2	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-14 06:56
Valorant: LOUD vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha	2	$1.3K	916	916	+0	LOUD	+$0	05-10 11:47
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	2	$1.2K	1,000	1,000	+0	Cavaliers	$-10	05-13 23:30
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets	2	$1.2K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-14 14:32
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays	2	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	Toronto Blue Jays	$-10	05-13 22:37
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular Season	3	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	LYON	$-10	05-10 19:30
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5	2	$960	1,000	1,000	+0	Over	$-40	05-12 14:52
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B	3	$849	629	629	+0	Legacy	$-6	05-13 20:36
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	2	$843	675	675	+0	BetBoom Team	$-7	05-13 19:36
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs	2	$800	899	899	+0	open	—	05-14 15:05
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	2	$799	512	512	+0	open	—	05-14 06:56
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves	2	$770	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-14 14:47
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	2	$770	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-14 13:31
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	2	$720	1,000	1,000	+0	paiN	$-20	05-11 03:31
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs	4	$699	712	712	+0	open	—	05-14 09:44
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B	3	$650	691	691	+0	open	—	05-14 08:53
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	6	$609	600	600	+0	open	—	05-19 06:20
Avalanche vs. Wild	1	$560	1,000	0	+1,000	Avalanche	+$440	05-11 14:28
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Team Envy (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 1	2	$534	600	600	+0	open	—	05-13 23:30
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B	2	$495	505	505	+0	Xtreme Gaming	+$0	05-13 01:45
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana	2	$422	680	680	+0	open	—	05-14 02:54
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	3	$387	283	283	+0	open	—	05-14 14:19
Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A	4	$370	882	882	+0	open	—	05-14 12:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$364	200	200	+0	open	—	05-14 11:33
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	2	$338	200	200	+0	open	—	05-14 12:00
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	4	$294	200	200	+0	open	—	05-14 16:25
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B	1	$272	405	0	+405	Sinners	+$134	05-12 11:32
Ethereum Up or Down on May 14?	2	$266	167	167	+0	open	—	05-14 16:26
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	2	$202	204	0	+204	open	—	05-19 16:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-20 05:51:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0x5f0069…
05-20 03:55:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x8f70c0…
05-20 03:47:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xc161d0…
05-20 03:13:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x08d7b8…
05-20 03:12:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x6d3e48…
05-20 03:12:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xb961c6…
05-20 03:01:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xc08014…
05-20 03:01:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xa0385b…
05-20 02:58:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xeec9a3…
05-20 02:58:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x0d806c…
05-20 02:58:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x3c9b7a…
05-20 02:58:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x28d8d7…
05-20 02:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xeefa5f…
05-20 02:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x932890…
05-20 02:57:06	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x93e697…
05-20 02:55:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x4a8838…
05-20 02:55:09	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xf6f9fe…
05-20 02:55:09	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x17366f…
05-20 02:54:43	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x946926…
05-20 02:54:43	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x744263…
05-20 02:54:04	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xa7c610…
05-20 02:50:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	1	49¢	$1	0xa2955d…
05-20 02:45:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	0	49¢	$0	0x926fe5…
05-20 02:41:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xd7c7a9…
05-20 02:40:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xd4acf8…
05-20 02:40:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xd68ae4…
05-20 02:40:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x791be9…
05-20 02:39:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	BUY	24	99¢	$23	0x8ac028…
05-20 02:39:33	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x540f41…
05-20 02:38:45	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	45¢	$0	0xbfed66…
05-20 02:38:28	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xc7f201…
05-20 02:37:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x9ace75…
05-20 02:35:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xf348d9…
05-20 02:35:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	48¢	$0	0xb051ad…
05-20 02:32:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	27	99¢	$26	0x586dac…
05-20 02:32:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xbff616…
05-20 02:31:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x56f407…
05-20 02:29:52	BNB Up or Down - May 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1b7b6c…
05-20 02:28:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$19	0xa6ccce…
05-20 02:28:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x408038…
05-20 02:25:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	0	49¢	$0	0x550ef4…
05-20 02:25:10	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	0	49¢	$0	0x377b89…
05-20 02:25:08	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x0bfdf6…
05-20 02:24:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xf0bf58…
05-20 02:24:02	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2bd56a…
05-20 02:15:03	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x415fc9…
05-20 02:15:01	hype updown 5m 1779243000	Down	BUY	42	99¢	$42	0xd85cfe…
05-20 02:14:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x646635…
05-20 02:14:21	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3deec6…
05-20 02:14:21	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x2fb4f7…
05-20 02:13:26	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xcbd967…
05-20 02:12:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xbdb2d8…
05-20 02:05:13	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x46ec8f…
05-20 02:04:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x70b4d1…
05-20 02:00:17	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xd9be9a…
05-20 01:58:13	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xaf76c5…
05-20 01:58:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x16115e…
05-20 01:57:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xbb7e5c…
05-20 01:54:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x21eca2…
05-20 01:53:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xc52ab1…
05-20 01:52:37	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	49¢	$2	0xb31484…
05-20 01:52:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x91207e…
05-20 01:45:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xc1cbe4…
05-20 01:44:04	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x157411…
05-20 01:43:38	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	45¢	$1	0x1a9030…
05-20 01:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x8ad2d0…
05-20 01:41:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xa9bc3d…
05-20 01:40:10	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	49¢	$1	0xf5603a…
05-20 01:40:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x542482…
05-20 01:40:01	hype updown 5m 1779240900	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xf80418…
05-20 01:40:01	hype updown 5m 1779240900	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x717368…
05-20 01:38:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xf28b23…
05-20 01:38:23	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x9e889c…
05-20 01:38:21	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x31059b…
05-20 01:38:18	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xfaf177…
05-20 01:38:18	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x9e8359…
05-20 01:38:05	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xc9ebb2…
05-20 01:38:05	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xb5b38e…
05-20 01:37:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x3af66e…
05-20 01:33:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0xa62b22…
05-20 01:29:15	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xbf57e3…
05-20 01:29:13	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xdf52aa…
05-20 01:28:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xcf9c92…
05-20 01:28:59	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xc8b99c…
05-20 01:28:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x9d31b4…
05-20 01:28:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0xef2ddb…
05-20 01:28:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x9b27d6…
05-20 01:28:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	0	49¢	$0	0x5f5632…
05-20 01:27:06	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x3eb41e…
05-20 01:26:55	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xecc87a…
05-20 01:26:25	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x6e22b1…
05-20 01:25:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	49¢	$2	0xa74b31…
05-20 01:25:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x9fe94f…
05-20 01:24:26	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x218b68…
05-20 01:15:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x1b7543…
05-20 01:15:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xd8683d…
05-20 01:15:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x3c7522…
05-20 01:14:09	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xbe94a0…
05-20 01:10:12	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	0	49¢	$0	0xfabe54…
05-20 01:10:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	0	49¢	$0	0xcb4d39…