Smug-Premise — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$10.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$106

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-20

last 06-02 23:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

95% 100% +$1

Other

3% 0% $-3

Sports

2% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 62k on february 22	1	$320	321	+321	open	—	02-22 01:38
bitcoin above 62k on march 8	1	$319	320	+320	open	—	03-08 05:11
bitcoin above 64k on march 5	1	$319	320	+320	open	—	03-05 04:22
bitcoin above 64k on march 12	1	$319	320	+320	open	—	03-12 02:47
bitcoin above 64k on march 11	1	$319	320	+320	open	—	03-11 02:38
bitcoin above 74k on february 27	1	$310	310	+310	open	—	02-27 01:17
bitcoin above 74k on march 1	1	$309	310	+310	open	—	03-01 04:43
bitcoin above 60k on march 9	1	$309	310	+310	open	—	03-09 03:47
bitcoin above 64k on march 6	2	$309	310	+310	open	—	03-06 01:30
bitcoin above 62k on march 4	1	$308	310	+310	open	—	03-04 03:56
bitcoin above 78k on march 13	1	$304	305	+305	open	—	03-13 01:37
bitcoin above 72k on february 21	1	$300	301	+301	open	—	02-21 02:48
bitcoin above 70k on february 24	1	$300	300	+300	open	—	02-24 01:54
bitcoin above 54k on march 3	1	$299	300	+300	open	—	03-02 03:29
bitcoin above 78k on march 16	1	$299	300	+300	open	—	03-15 09:07
bitcoin above 66k on march 14	2	$299	300	+300	open	—	03-14 04:05
bitcoin above 70k on february 25	1	$295	295	+295	open	—	02-25 01:06
bitcoin above 62k on march 7	1	$289	290	+290	open	—	03-07 02:35
bitcoin above 82k on march 17	2	$289	290	+290	open	—	03-17 01:41
bitcoin above 58k on february 28	1	$289	289	+289	open	—	02-28 02:11
bitcoin above 60k on february 20	1	$200	200	+200	open	—	02-20 02:24
bitcoin above 80k on april 21	1	$150	150	+150	open	—	04-21 06:19
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 28?	1	$150	150	+150	open	—	04-27 23:42
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6?	1	$149	150	+150	Yes	+$1	05-06 05:38
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13?	1	$149	150	+150	Yes	+$1	05-13 12:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31?	3	$149	150	+150	open	—	05-31 04:26
bitcoin above 74k on april 18	1	$149	150	+150	open	—	04-18 07:11
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	1	$149	149	+149	open	—	05-18 08:57
bitcoin above 78k on april 17	1	$147	148	+148	open	—	04-17 06:51
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 1?	1	$146	147	+147	open	—	05-01 02:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-02 23:03:50	Knicks vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	112	63¢	$71	0x248e57…
06-02 23:03:38	Knicks vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	18	63¢	$11	0xaffc42…
05-31 04:26:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31?	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x2b49fd…
05-31 04:26:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31?	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xc0021d…
05-31 04:25:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31?	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x2cfd46…
05-22 11:25:46	Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Xtreme Gaming	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xfe698b…
05-18 08:57:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	149	100¢	$149	0x3238e0…
05-18 08:55:39	LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs	HANJIN BRION	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x2c02da…
05-13 12:00:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13?	Yes	BUY	150	100¢	$149	0x13b69c…
05-06 05:38:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	150	100¢	$149	0x40ffdc…
05-01 02:46:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 1?	Yes	BUY	147	100¢	$146	0xe28a9b…
05-01 02:37:04	Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5	Under	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xd15367…
04-27 23:42:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 28?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x840b36…
04-21 06:19:46	bitcoin above 80k on april 21	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xe5556e…
04-18 07:11:56	bitcoin above 74k on april 18	Yes	BUY	150	99¢	$149	0x03116a…
04-17 06:51:22	bitcoin above 78k on april 17	No	BUY	148	100¢	$147	0x6286eb…
04-13 13:17:53	bitcoin above 76k on april 13	No	BUY	144	100¢	$144	0xb88c3b…
04-13 01:14:01	nba phx okc 2026 04 12	Suns	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0xb08b05…
04-10 08:46:39	bitcoin above 76k on april 10	No	BUY	146	100¢	$146	0x1d4748…
04-09 05:13:01	bitcoin above 66k on april 9	Yes	BUY	136	100¢	$135	0x617135…
04-09 00:47:45	nba min orl 2026 04 08	Magic	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xed8b84…
04-07 06:06:49	bitcoin above 62k on april 7	Yes	BUY	145	100¢	$145	0x1e501f…
04-06 06:15:51	bitcoin above 64k on april 6	Yes	BUY	135	100¢	$135	0x35d4bd…
04-05 04:51:23	bitcoin above 64k on april 5	Yes	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x993b06…
04-05 04:17:51	bitcoin above 60k on april 6	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb2c960…
04-02 00:56:49	bitcoin above 74k on april 2	No	BUY	133	100¢	$133	0xa77b6a…
04-02 00:53:41	nba nyk mem 2026 04 01	Knicks	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x0f364c…
04-02 00:53:27	nba ind chi 2026 04 01	Pacers	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xd17434…
04-01 08:38:09	bitcoin above 74k on april 1	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0x4e0bfe…
03-30 02:05:10	bitcoin above 60k on march 30	Yes	BUY	129	100¢	$129	0xdbf202…
03-29 05:21:54	bitcoin above 62k on march 29	Yes	BUY	126	100¢	$125	0x4f9483…
03-28 07:42:37	elon musk of tweets march 26 march 28 90 114	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0x343036…
03-27 04:01:51	bitcoin above 74k on march 27	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x71a388…
03-27 04:01:15	cbb ill hou 2026 03 26	Illinois Fighting Illini	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x4e27b7…
03-26 02:45:05	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 260 279	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x93cb9b…
03-26 02:44:51	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 220 239	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1cda92…
03-25 02:28:31	Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1,500	0¢	$3	0xeeb52a…
03-24 07:36:09	bitcoin above 78k on march 24	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0xb64901…
03-24 00:05:51	will gold gc hit low 3600 by end of march	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x590c5e…
03-23 08:29:05	bitcoin above 74k on march 23	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0x610f7a…
03-21 04:41:39	bitcoin above 66k on march 21	Yes	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x8b1ca0…
03-21 03:20:03	cbb cabap kan 2026 03 20	Kansas Jayhawks	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xea49d5…
03-20 08:43:07	bitcoin above 76k on march 20	No	BUY	136	100¢	$136	0x81d9fe…
03-19 08:54:55	bitcoin above 64k on march 19	Yes	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x74aa16…
03-17 01:41:41	bitcoin above 82k on march 17	No	BUY	253	100¢	$253	0x14d85d…
03-17 01:39:23	bitcoin above 82k on march 17	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0x8c73a1…
03-17 01:27:39	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 140 159	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbc0e77…
03-16 08:56:11	bitcoin above 80k on march 17	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x5b48cf…
03-15 09:07:17	bitcoin above 78k on march 16	No	BUY	300	100¢	$299	0x0d8163…
03-15 07:34:47	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5c2efa…
03-15 07:34:31	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xe299b7…
03-14 04:05:47	bitcoin above 66k on march 14	Yes	BUY	243	100¢	$242	0xb0ea2b…
03-14 03:53:59	bitcoin above 66k on march 14	Yes	BUY	57	100¢	$57	0x18665c…
03-13 01:37:11	bitcoin above 78k on march 13	No	BUY	305	100¢	$304	0x057320…
03-13 01:35:13	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 100 119	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9d6a4e…
03-13 01:35:05	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 140 159	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x43bb3c…
03-12 02:47:43	bitcoin above 64k on march 12	Yes	BUY	320	100¢	$319	0xd33330…
03-11 02:38:27	bitcoin above 64k on march 11	Yes	BUY	320	100¢	$319	0x4026c4…
03-11 02:26:09	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0xb8e845…
03-10 01:17:09	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0xdf4aca…
03-10 01:16:09	will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	No	SELL	21	87¢	$18	0x95c282…
03-09 03:47:31	bitcoin above 60k on march 9	Yes	BUY	310	100¢	$309	0x0364cc…
03-09 03:40:25	will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x39d741…
03-08 05:11:41	bitcoin above 62k on march 8	Yes	BUY	320	100¢	$319	0x3cf64c…
03-08 05:05:09	will iran strike israel on march 9	Yes	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x1cd83f…
03-07 02:35:03	bitcoin above 62k on march 7	Yes	BUY	290	100¢	$289	0x68439c…
03-07 01:55:21	nba dal bos 2026 03 06	Celtics	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xfab9c6…
03-06 01:30:03	bitcoin above 64k on march 6	Yes	BUY	97	100¢	$96	0xbb158f…
03-06 01:29:17	bitcoin above 64k on march 6	Yes	BUY	213	100¢	$213	0x95c4b4…
03-06 01:12:05	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 80 99	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe578d0…
03-05 04:22:45	bitcoin above 64k on march 5	Yes	BUY	320	100¢	$319	0x7fdc61…
03-05 01:22:05	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 40 59	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xeb6e98…
03-05 01:21:35	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 180 199	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0xb3d9c7…
03-04 03:56:47	bitcoin above 62k on march 4	Yes	BUY	310	99¢	$308	0x5007e4…
03-02 03:29:13	bitcoin above 54k on march 3	Yes	BUY	300	100¢	$299	0x02c0ac…
03-02 03:28:35	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 80 99	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9beac9…
03-01 04:43:37	bitcoin above 74k on march 1	No	BUY	310	100¢	$309	0x3e6526…
02-28 02:11:39	bitcoin above 58k on february 28	Yes	BUY	289	100¢	$289	0xd7984c…
02-28 02:11:19	elon musk of tweets february 26 february 28 165 189	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xc4c71d…
02-28 02:11:07	elon musk of tweets february 26 february 28 40 64	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x190e21…
02-27 01:18:40	elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 340 359	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x853670…
02-27 01:18:18	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 40 59	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb341c6…
02-27 01:18:02	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 180 199	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0888f8…
02-27 01:17:24	bitcoin above 74k on february 27	No	BUY	310	100¢	$310	0x8f4877…
02-25 01:06:04	bitcoin above 70k on february 25	No	BUY	295	100¢	$295	0xc6e279…
02-25 01:04:16	elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 240 259	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3eda86…
02-24 01:54:06	bitcoin above 70k on february 24	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0x3659d1…
02-24 01:53:44	elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 200 219	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1c126b…
02-24 01:53:36	elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 180 199	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbf7bbf…
02-22 01:38:08	bitcoin above 62k on february 22	Yes	BUY	321	100¢	$320	0x0143ba…
02-21 02:48:38	bitcoin above 72k on february 21	No	BUY	301	100¢	$300	0x478456…
02-21 02:47:52	highest temperature in london on february 21 2026 11c	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xcceff0…
02-21 02:47:22	highest temperature in seoul on february 21 2026 12c	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x0b400d…
02-21 02:46:52	elon musk of tweets february 19 february 21 65 89	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2a82e9…
02-20 02:24:56	bitcoin above 60k on february 20	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xab43ed…
02-20 02:24:34	elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 380 399	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xf55907…
02-20 02:14:02	nba ind was 2026 02 19	Wizards	BUY	92	87¢	$80	0x5c26c9…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	65	$161.9K	3,114	05-31 14:37
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	65	$7.85K	3,849	04-16 06:50
Messy-Lecture 0xff4e…5502	61	$2.06K	5,461	05-31 12:33
Frightened-Kitsch 0x58fd…43a6	56	$1.51K	3,558	05-18 01:42
Deserted-Bitter 0x3690…e16f	52	$95.9K	1,375	05-17 23:53
(anonymous) 0x90bb…531f	50	$1.22K	2,659	06-04 03:08
Fragrant-Dynamite 0x9980…e81b	49	$8.27K	56	06-02 23:00
(anonymous) 0xe548…b25b	48	$8.17K	58	06-02 23:04