Miserly-Alpha — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

66.6%

Resolved

Trades

202

lifetime

Volume

$2.83K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-21

last 05-15 19:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

82% 59% +$3

Politics

17% — —

Other

1% 0% $-2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 58 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?	1	$516	0	3,817	-3,817	open	—	01-21 16:44
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	6	$267	201	100	+101	open	—	04-20 16:31
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?	3	$202	769	569	+200	open	—	04-19 19:56
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$200	184	184	+0	open	—	03-01 05:57
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16?	1	$160	310	0	+310	open	—	05-15 19:45
btc updown 15m 1769014800	2	$131	91	90	+1	open	—	01-21 17:07
btc updown 5m 1775594700	2	$105	75	73	+3	open	—	04-07 20:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	21	$99	200	0	+200	open	—	05-02 21:19
btc updown 5m 1775730300	4	$98	200	0	+200	open	—	04-09 10:24
btc updown 4h 1769000400	4	$50	165	0	+165	open	—	01-21 16:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	5	$50	100	0	+100	open	—	05-02 22:55
btc updown 15m 1769013900	4	$45	199	0	+199	open	—	01-21 16:56
btc updown 5m 1775730600	3	$44	84	79	+5	open	—	04-09 10:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	5	$42	231	0	+231	open	—	05-03 18:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	2	$40	80	0	+80	open	—	04-27 18:28
btc updown 15m 1770329700	6	$34	52	52	+1	open	—	02-05 22:28
btc updown 15m 1770454800	4	$30	28	28	+0	open	—	02-07 09:01
btc updown 5m 1775594400	2	$30	92	0	+92	open	—	04-07 20:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	2	$30	60	0	+60	open	—	04-27 16:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	6	$24	16	16	+0	open	—	04-27 16:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	5	$24	37	37	+0	Up	+$4	05-13 19:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	5	$24	32	32	+0	Up	+$4	05-13 22:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	5	$22	39	39	+0	Up	+$2	05-13 19:37
btc updown 15m 1770330600	2	$20	20	19	+0	open	—	02-05 22:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	1	$20	40	0	+40	open	—	05-03 06:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	1	$20	21	0	+21	Down	+$1	05-13 19:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	3	$20	40	0	+40	open	—	04-27 17:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	6	$19	35	24	+10	Up	$-4	05-14 02:24
btc updown 5m 1775594100	4	$18	325	0	+325	open	—	04-07 20:39
Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Hyderabad Kingsmen	1	$17	100	0	+100	open	—	05-03 17:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-15 19:45:57	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16?	Up	BUY	310	52¢	$160	0xaff817…
05-15 19:43:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0xb3fa34…
05-15 19:42:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xff81d7…
05-15 19:41:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xfcb672…
05-14 02:24:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x7ccb14…
05-14 02:24:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x82e3e2…
05-14 02:23:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	SELL	24	9¢	$2	0xbe6e62…
05-14 02:21:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xbf9e91…
05-14 02:20:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x0e85c6…
05-14 02:20:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xb78c9a…
05-14 02:19:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x4370af…
05-14 02:16:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x8f6bf8…
05-14 02:16:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x0e4c48…
05-13 22:32:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	SELL	6	62¢	$4	0xc78e62…
05-13 22:30:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x9c5c45…
05-13 22:30:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xb5c612…
05-13 22:28:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x781cd6…
05-13 22:28:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	23	18¢	$4	0x52a8ef…
05-13 22:27:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x75014b…
05-13 22:27:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x57f631…
05-13 22:27:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xadbf8b…
05-13 22:24:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	9	67¢	$6	0x3b90ba…
05-13 22:23:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0xc99196…
05-13 22:22:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x313113…
05-13 22:22:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	SELL	19	28¢	$5	0x4efa4a…
05-13 22:21:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x33c319…
05-13 20:23:40	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 13?	Up	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x3b641c…
05-13 20:20:27	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x384f2f…
05-13 20:08:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x87888d…
05-13 20:08:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x22b9b7…
05-13 20:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf3c4e9…
05-13 20:07:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x98f88a…
05-13 20:07:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x3fe1ca…
05-13 20:07:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x637baa…
05-13 20:07:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xcb6c81…
05-13 20:06:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa614f5…
05-13 20:06:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x25bdf1…
05-13 20:06:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x8a156a…
05-13 20:06:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf90702…
05-13 20:05:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x2280a0…
05-13 20:05:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x09806c…
05-13 20:05:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xb6bccb…
05-13 20:04:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x0adaae…
05-13 20:04:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf25c0f…
05-13 20:04:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x6e9116…
05-13 20:04:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xc89689…
05-13 20:03:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf1cda3…
05-13 20:03:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x1491a7…
05-13 20:01:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	SELL	22	33¢	$7	0x1969d9…
05-13 20:00:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x06826b…
05-13 20:00:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x8e7f5c…
05-13 20:00:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x44c8ad…
05-13 19:54:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x9c98a5…
05-13 19:52:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xecd93f…
05-13 19:52:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xbd9254…
05-13 19:52:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xf907ac…
05-13 19:51:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x8edcf3…
05-13 19:49:32	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x95aef0…
05-13 19:48:52	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x2443c9…
05-13 19:47:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	SELL	17	48¢	$8	0xb4ff76…
05-13 19:47:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x6ee7d3…
05-13 19:46:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	SELL	15	30¢	$5	0x74fce2…
05-13 19:46:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	SELL	5	30¢	$1	0x6cf3eb…
05-13 19:45:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x3225f8…
05-13 19:37:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	SELL	8	30¢	$3	0xa3ae51…
05-13 19:37:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	SELL	25	30¢	$8	0x8fd002…
05-13 19:37:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	SELL	6	30¢	$2	0x35724d…
05-13 19:36:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x5da9d6…
05-13 19:35:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x77a1e9…
05-13 19:19:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x39f5a6…
05-13 19:19:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xd3bb97…
05-03 18:04:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0xad1187…
05-03 18:02:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	66	8¢	$5	0x7254ee…
05-03 18:02:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x51e61d…
05-03 18:02:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x2a9a4f…
05-03 18:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0x05bcb5…
05-03 17:59:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x337620…
05-03 17:58:08	Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Hyderabad Kingsmen	Hyderabad Kingsmen	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x9f25c7…
05-03 06:53:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x0af7a4…
05-03 06:52:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x059136…
05-03 06:51:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xc540ae…
05-03 06:51:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	84	6¢	$5	0xaaa89a…
05-03 06:03:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Up	BUY	40	51¢	$20	0xd7dbe6…
05-03 06:02:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xf2a9b3…
05-03 05:37:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x6ee3b1…
05-03 05:34:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xd7b4d6…
05-03 05:32:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xe17eb1…
05-03 05:27:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	70	24¢	$17	0x1f70f2…
05-02 22:55:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	13	50¢	$7	0x7d5e93…
05-02 22:55:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xaa9f31…
05-02 22:55:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x08e7a6…
05-02 22:55:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	76	50¢	$38	0xf585cc…
05-02 22:55:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xc413b6…
05-02 21:19:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0xfc1fb0…
05-02 21:18:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x68e1b8…
05-02 21:18:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	33	48¢	$16	0x3df0c4…
05-02 21:18:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x23d7d6…
05-02 21:18:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	19	48¢	$9	0xc25ac6…
05-02 21:18:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	13	48¢	$6	0x3b4898…
05-02 21:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xfef18a…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	58	$37.8K	1,149	05-16 15:43
(anonymous) 0x88f4…d4db	58	$16.5K	1,690	05-15 19:43
(anonymous) 0x8852…c569	58	$6.55K	1,369	05-15 19:44
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	56	$26.8K	1,756	05-15 19:44
(anonymous) 0x38e5…8a4a	56	$13.6K	4,403	05-15 19:44
(anonymous) 0x424e…263b	55	$13.6K	2,143	05-15 19:43
(anonymous) 0xd901…8e14	55	$12.9K	3,425	05-15 19:43
(anonymous) 0xba67…4727	55	$12.5K	1,843	05-15 19:43