Misguided-Midcourse — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$27

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

95.8%

Resolved

23,149

Trades

39,136

lifetime

Volume

$373.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-10

last 10-07 08:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 101 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 91% +$25

Sports

0% 87% +$32

Other

0% 63% -$31

Politics

0% 100% +$1

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 3022 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 10AM ET	24	$120	153	66	+86	Up	-$80	09-16 14:54
nba phx min 2026 03 17	12	$118	84	84	+0	Timberwolves	-$3	03-18 02:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 07:05 UTC	52	$115	234	0	+234	Up	-$3	03-13 07:08
nba sas lac 2026 03 16	7	$91	47	47	+0	Spurs	+$3	03-17 05:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 08:50 UTC	41	$82	169	0	+169	Down	-$2	03-13 08:54
nba was uta 2026 03 25	3	$71	36	36	+0	Wizards	+$1	03-26 03:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 05:45 UTC	5	$69	70	0	+70	Up	+$1	08-31 05:49
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-29 12:10 UTC	5	$69	70	0	+70	Up	+$1	08-29 12:14
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 03:55 UTC	5	$69	70	0	+70	Up	+$1	08-27 03:59
Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	5	$69	70	0	+70	Up	+$1	09-02 05:59
XRP Up or Down - August 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	5	$69	70	0	+70	Up	+$1	08-27 11:09
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 23:35 UTC	5	$69	70	0	+70	Down	+$1	08-27 23:39
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 18:25 UTC	5	$69	70	0	+70	Up	+$1	08-27 18:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	5	$69	70	0	+70	Up	+$1	09-01 07:49
XRP Up or Down - September 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	5	$69	70	0	+70	Up	+$1	09-01 21:39
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	5	$69	35	35	+0	Yes	+$1	05-13 01:18
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-29 05:10 UTC	5	$69	70	0	+70	Up	+$1	08-29 05:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-29 00:10 UTC	5	$69	70	0	+70	Down	+$1	08-29 00:14
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-28 14:55 UTC	5	$69	70	0	+70	Up	+$1	08-28 14:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-29 12:40 UTC	5	$69	70	0	+70	Up	+$1	08-29 12:44
XRP Up or Down - September 2, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	5	$69	70	0	+70	Down	+$1	09-02 05:39
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-28 08:40 UTC	5	$69	70	0	+70	Down	+$1	08-28 08:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 07:10 UTC	5	$69	70	0	+70	Up	+$1	08-27 07:14
Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	5	$69	70	0	+70	Down	+$1	09-02 18:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	5	$69	70	0	+70	Up	+$1	09-02 23:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	5	$69	70	0	+70	Up	+$1	08-28 07:19
XRP Up or Down - September 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	5	$69	70	0	+70	Up	+$1	09-01 22:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-29 02:55 UTC	5	$69	70	0	+70	Down	+$1	08-29 02:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 03:55 UTC	5	$69	70	0	+70	Up	+$1	08-27 03:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	5	$69	70	0	+70	Up	+$1	09-01 22:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-07 08:03:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xa88f00…
10-07 08:03:18	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xe2afb4…
10-07 08:02:54	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xbd5d17…
10-07 08:02:47	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xadfd47…
10-07 08:02:15	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x45318b…
10-07 07:58:51	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x04b909…
10-07 07:58:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x67782e…
10-07 07:58:26	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xf74ae8…
10-07 07:58:23	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x5818c2…
10-07 07:58:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x3f8815…
10-07 07:57:35	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x9e2969…
10-07 07:57:29	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x77b6be…
10-07 07:57:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x5fd198…
10-07 07:52:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x9f0107…
10-07 07:52:08	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x534a18…
10-07 07:47:35	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x2e4e1b…
10-07 07:47:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xaf09b0…
10-07 07:42:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x1f6695…
10-07 07:39:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xccebc2…
10-07 07:39:03	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xc4a123…
10-07 07:38:59	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x55b26d…
10-07 07:38:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x42eade…
10-07 07:37:45	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x11084a…
10-07 07:28:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x7478cd…
10-07 07:28:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xcea44b…
10-07 07:28:02	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xbe0553…
10-07 07:27:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x6b2189…
10-07 07:27:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x2c017e…
10-07 07:23:45	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x270491…
10-07 07:22:30	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x8e0633…
10-07 07:22:11	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xef5058…
10-07 07:22:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x1417fa…
10-07 07:22:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xf1aee0…
10-07 07:17:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x0c18fd…
10-07 07:12:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xfee7ef…
10-07 07:12:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x0b7234…
10-07 07:08:44	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xcfd24b…
10-07 07:08:17	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xe5f9c4…
10-07 07:08:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x12b02e…
10-07 07:07:45	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x81be67…
10-07 07:04:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x47a208…
10-07 07:03:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x063905…
10-07 07:02:47	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xcb9bde…
10-07 07:02:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x13235a…
10-07 07:02:33	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x2abcb7…
10-07 07:02:11	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x330df9…
10-07 07:02:08	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x8389e3…
10-07 07:02:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x1c5c27…
10-07 06:58:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xe4ba2a…
10-07 06:58:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x1ab966…
10-07 06:58:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x30a6d9…
10-07 06:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x957369…
10-07 06:54:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x13b816…
10-07 06:53:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x6d8ce8…
10-07 06:53:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x2cce39…
10-07 06:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x228218…
10-07 06:53:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xdc4e49…
10-07 06:53:09	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x1f46d6…
10-07 06:52:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xde5a43…
10-07 06:51:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0x96a1a0…
10-07 06:51:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xac934e…
10-07 06:46:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xa2e2be…
10-07 06:44:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x119e6c…
10-07 06:44:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xefba79…
10-07 06:39:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x8ad1ea…
10-07 06:39:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xb251ff…
10-07 06:39:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xf37ce6…
10-07 06:39:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x2a433f…
10-07 06:38:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x77c92c…
10-07 06:38:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xf091ca…
10-07 06:38:32	BNB Up or Down - October 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x003960…
10-07 06:38:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xba9e70…
10-07 06:37:57	BNB Up or Down - October 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x267151…
10-07 06:37:35	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xce19af…
10-07 06:36:23	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x2c6440…
10-07 06:35:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x37c081…
10-07 06:34:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x2ff2e1…
10-07 06:33:24	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xb37dfb…
10-07 06:32:29	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xab8fd5…
10-07 06:27:35	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xf80576…
10-07 06:24:09	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x1968a8…
10-07 06:23:39	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x49e092…
10-07 06:23:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x9e2009…
10-07 06:18:26	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x87d369…
10-07 06:17:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xd5d17e…
10-07 06:13:35	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xd8c328…
10-07 06:13:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x3c85b2…
10-07 06:12:57	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xd3c7d1…
10-07 06:12:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x415226…
10-07 06:12:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xb4af44…
10-07 06:12:26	XRP Up or Down - October 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xd0f6c3…
10-07 06:12:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x9566a3…
10-07 06:08:26	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x71cd10…
10-07 06:08:26	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x13096d…
10-07 06:08:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x741aab…
10-07 06:07:56	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x40f738…
10-07 06:07:20	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x2f004e…
10-07 06:07:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xa642ce…
10-07 05:58:59	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x583317…
10-07 05:58:33	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x0149ef…