Organic-Manufacturer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.29K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

49.2%

Resolved

4,386

Trades

8,724

lifetime

Volume

$195.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-01

last 07-09 13:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 141 days

Categories

Crypto

73% 53% -$4,599

Politics

23% 41% +$523

Other

4% 56% -$210

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-09).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	51	$8.7K	19,769	6,502	+13,268	Yes	-$653	05-28 18:00
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	7	$8.6K	22,570	22,570	+0	No	+$379	05-05 16:39
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	2	$5.0K	4,603	4,603	+0	No	+$3,743	05-25 23:16
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	31	$4.9K	18,187	18,187	+0	No	-$2,781	05-28 14:42
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	4	$4.5K	20,570	20,570	+0	No	-$411	05-10 13:02
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$3.8K	13,007	13,007	+0	Yes	-$208	05-23 17:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$3.5K	2,651	2,651	+0	No	-$118	05-23 18:32
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	10	$2.0K	5,003	5,003	+0	Yes	+$42	05-26 22:57
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	47	$1.7K	3,199	3,199	+0	No	+$258	04-19 16:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	20	$1.6K	4,624	0	+4,624	Down	-$1,625	05-17 21:45
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	18	$1.4K	7,555	7,555	+0	No	+$15	04-19 12:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	46	$1.4K	4,267	0	+4,267	Up	-$1,448	05-17 21:29
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 4?	18	$1.2K	795	795	+0	Yes	+$147	06-04 14:52
ethereum up or down february 5 9am et	22	$822	1,244	444	+800	Down	-$378	02-05 14:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	54	$709	1,899	0	+1,899	Down	-$709	05-16 20:35
xrp up or down february 5 4am et	3	$650	4,695	0	+4,695	Down	-$650	02-05 09:44
ethereum up or down february 2 11pm et	10	$535	589	434	+155	Up	-$76	02-03 04:39
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 4?	23	$523	787	787	-0	No	-$366	06-04 09:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	1	$500	1,155	0	+1,155	Up	-$500	05-23 18:32
bitcoin up or down february 5 10am et	3	$439	1,085	0	+1,085	Down	-$439	02-05 15:04
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 4?	50	$428	747	747	+0	No	-$338	06-04 17:03
bitcoin up or down february 5 2pm et	1	$300	612	0	+612	Down	-$300	02-05 19:00
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4?	7	$283	225	225	+0	Yes	+$0	06-04 10:05
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 3?	14	$277	393	0	+393	Yes	+$117	06-03 20:51
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4?	2	$276	218	218	+0	No	-$6	06-04 06:09
Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?	4	$274	443	443	+0	Yes	+$16	03-29 21:11
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$268	218	218	+0	No	-$76	05-29 18:01
ethereum up or down february 4 7pm et	15	$256	570	0	+570	Up	+$313	02-05 00:03
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	4	$246	426	0	+426	Down	-$246	05-20 20:29
bitcoin up or down february 3 3am et	4	$246	737	0	+737	Down	+$491	02-03 08:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-09 13:53:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 13:55 UTC	Down	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x83e0b9…
07-09 10:53:05	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 10:55 UTC	Up	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0xec3f21…
07-08 11:47:38	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 11:50 UTC	Down	BUY	3	51¢	$1	0x055c3d…
07-08 11:44:02	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0x901869…
07-08 11:43:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0x02686e…
07-08 08:32:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 08:35 UTC	Up	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0xa140a3…
07-08 08:24:25	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 08:25 UTC	Up	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0x1def6b…
07-08 08:24:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 08:25 UTC	Up	BUY	4	58¢	$2	0x12ae47…
07-08 08:18:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 08:20 UTC	Up	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x53002c…
07-08 01:56:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 02:00 UTC	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xe90515…
07-08 01:36:47	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 01:40 UTC	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0x22a675…
07-08 01:36:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 01:40 UTC	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0xeb61c4…
07-08 01:36:46	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 01:40 UTC	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0xd06851…
07-08 01:36:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 01:40 UTC	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0xcdf5b7…
07-08 01:36:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 01:40 UTC	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0x560933…
07-07 19:11:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 19:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0x4d35d0…
07-07 19:00:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 19:05 UTC	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xa197ad…
07-07 19:00:32	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 19:05 UTC	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x1ca809…
07-07 18:59:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 19:00 UTC	Up	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x75e573…
07-07 18:53:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 18:55 UTC	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x052c6b…
07-07 18:51:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 18:55 UTC	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x6f19c0…
07-07 18:51:37	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 18:55 UTC	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x40101d…
07-07 18:49:44	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 18:50 UTC	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x8386c1…
07-07 12:06:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 12:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$2	0xd8fe4b…
07-07 09:45:37	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 09:50 UTC	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x7acdfe…
07-07 09:42:40	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 09:45 UTC	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xc0df6a…
07-07 05:14:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xaa9519…
07-07 02:26:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 02:30 UTC	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x075d4d…
07-07 01:38:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 01:40 UTC	Up	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xbb4f0c…
07-07 01:38:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 01:40 UTC	Up	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xb1418e…
07-06 21:09:22	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 21:10 UTC	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xaa4ba7…
07-06 15:51:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 15:55 UTC	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xf163e2…
07-06 15:09:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 15:10 UTC	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x5bf765…
07-06 14:25:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xd58204…
07-06 12:03:37	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 12:05 UTC	Up	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0xc37729…
07-06 12:00:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 12:05 UTC	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0xef5edd…
07-06 12:00:50	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 12:05 UTC	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x8dd3fe…
07-06 12:00:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 12:05 UTC	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xb61e9a…
07-06 12:00:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 12:05 UTC	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x6b31bd…
07-06 12:00:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xe79a1f…
07-06 12:00:02	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xda64b0…
07-06 11:59:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xb984db…
07-06 08:36:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 08:40 UTC	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x315548…
07-06 05:32:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:35 UTC	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xec1f29…
07-06 05:28:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:30 UTC	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x396b6a…
07-06 05:28:19	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:30 UTC	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xe355ad…
07-05 22:30:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-05 22:35 UTC	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x8b9b5f…
07-05 22:30:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-05 22:35 UTC	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x283a2f…
07-05 21:23:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-05 21:25 UTC	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xcef5bd…
07-05 18:52:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-05 18:55 UTC	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x9b2f67…
07-05 18:52:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-05 18:55 UTC	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x1e08ff…
07-05 17:23:04	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-05 17:25 UTC	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xe153b2…
07-05 08:01:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-05 08:05 UTC	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xdb8e65…
07-05 07:51:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-05 07:55 UTC	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x021e37…
07-05 07:43:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-05 07:45 UTC	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xc4dd2e…
07-04 17:51:16	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 17:55 UTC	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x523f5a…
07-04 17:50:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 17:55 UTC	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x30913d…
07-04 17:49:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 17:50 UTC	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xbf7916…
07-04 17:33:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 17:35 UTC	Down	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xa67847…
07-04 17:33:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 17:35 UTC	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xfe1b73…
07-04 17:33:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 17:35 UTC	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xe51f3a…
07-04 15:21:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 15:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xcb8b02…
07-04 15:10:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x4441a8…
07-04 15:10:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xb7b537…
07-04 15:10:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xbb97d7…
07-04 15:10:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xac2d14…
07-04 15:09:40	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 15:10 UTC	Down	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xb6df0d…
07-04 12:28:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x62b320…
07-04 04:41:55	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 04:45 UTC	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x69149d…
07-04 03:38:59	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 03:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$2	0xc57f76…
07-04 03:34:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 03:35 UTC	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xc787e4…
07-04 01:10:08	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 01:10 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x13037b…
07-03 20:36:49	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 20:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xfd4ebe…
07-03 20:36:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 20:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x7a3678…
07-03 20:35:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 20:40 UTC	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x2d7b6c…
07-03 20:19:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 20:20 UTC	Down	BUY	6	58¢	$3	0xb29b44…
07-03 20:19:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 20:20 UTC	Down	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0xdbdcd0…
07-03 20:18:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 20:20 UTC	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xdc49fd…
07-03 20:07:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 20:10 UTC	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x8abd98…
07-03 14:14:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 14:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0x25a34a…
07-03 14:14:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 14:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0xe78477…
07-03 12:19:02	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 12:20 UTC	Up	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0x38bcbf…
07-03 10:53:25	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 10:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xbbd0cf…
07-03 10:44:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x562205…
07-03 10:44:20	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xdb8c24…
07-03 10:44:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x02f21a…
07-03 10:44:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x4c4312…
07-03 08:52:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 08:55 UTC	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xf27485…
07-03 08:43:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 08:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x8f8fc1…
07-03 08:43:32	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 08:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x2501e8…
07-03 08:27:25	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 08:30 UTC	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x9e8336…
07-03 05:35:56	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 05:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x756556…
07-02 16:27:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 16:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x545c95…
07-02 13:35:47	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 13:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xd92e3e…
07-02 13:35:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 13:35 UTC	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xc80e29…
07-02 13:18:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 13:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xa33b11…
07-02 13:04:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 13:05 UTC	Down	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0xb80bf5…
07-02 12:55:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 12:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x8910e8…
07-02 12:51:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 12:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x8ad692…
07-02 12:49:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 12:50 UTC	Down	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x518217…