Advanced-Document — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$38

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

92.7%

Resolved

Trades

1,467

lifetime

Volume

$69.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$47

Open exposure

$84

1 position

First seen

2026-01-23

last 07-20 17:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

51% 80% +$38

Other

47% — —

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No		+107	$78	78¢	$84	+$6	06-03 02:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	172	$6.7K	5,005	2,393	+2,611	open	—	03-31 09:11
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	29	$4.9K	4,535	928	+3,607	open	—	04-27 11:18
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	15	$3.9K	3,126	878	+2,248	open	—	07-20 17:29
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	55	$3.8K	3,955	0	+3,955	open	—	04-12 04:32
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	20	$2.9K	2,413	560	+1,853	open	—	06-29 03:59
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	36	$2.4K	2,190	250	+1,940	open	—	02-28 07:01
trump out as president by march 31	13	$1.8K	919	919	+0	open	—	03-27 06:19
iran strike on israel by february 28	53	$1.5K	1,179	502	+678	open	—	02-28 16:59
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	16	$1.4K	1,429	0	+1,429	open	—	03-08 08:04
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	23	$1.4K	1,420	0	+1,420	open	—	03-19 14:54
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	26	$1.4K	1,524	18	+1,507	open	—	04-22 02:06
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$1.3K	1,215	164	+1,050	open	—	05-25 14:49
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	9	$1.1K	711	527	+184	open	—	04-03 11:29
iran strike on us military by february 28	31	$1.1K	1,095	0	+1,095	open	—	02-28 14:03
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	7	$1.0K	1,064	0	+1,064	open	—	07-12 04:31
will the us next strike iran on february 10 2026 et	27	$1.0K	507	507	+0	open	—	02-10 16:09
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	10	$949	1,076	0	+1,076	open	—	05-19 12:18
Trump out as President by April 30?	14	$932	947	0	+947	open	—	04-08 02:01
Trump out as President before 2027?	4	$800	437	437	+0	open	—	07-20 16:25
us x iran nuclear talks resume by march 31	18	$781	429	429	+0	open	—	02-06 11:45
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	61	$725	549	287	+262	open	—	03-21 05:44
ilhan omar town hall attack staged	7	$699	354	354	+0	open	—	02-28 06:27
Iran leadership change by March 13?	15	$674	362	362	+0	open	—	03-12 13:31
us forces enter iran by march 7	25	$669	664	738	-74	open	—	03-05 05:15
Iran leadership change by April 30?	11	$669	628	257	+371	open	—	04-10 16:08
will donald trump attend super bowl lx	34	$663	671	0	+671	open	—	02-08 07:42
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	7	$593	601	0	+601	open	—	04-07 17:32
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	7	$576	592	0	+592	open	—	05-11 16:43
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	7	$573	581	0	+581	open	—	01-26 17:40
will russia test a nuclear weapon by march 31 2026	6	$563	577	0	+577	open	—	03-10 13:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 17:29:12	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x153ba1…
07-20 16:25:31	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	218	93¢	$203	0xb360f0…
07-20 16:23:13	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	No	SELL	103	99¢	$102	0xc0929b…
07-20 16:23:12	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	218	93¢	$203	0xfa308b…
07-20 16:22:31	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	No	SELL	103	99¢	$102	0x3086f5…
07-19 06:51:27	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	146	95¢	$139	0x6ac309…
07-19 06:46:27	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	215	96¢	$205	0x856cef…
07-19 06:44:07	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	108	96¢	$104	0xbf9e4e…
07-19 06:44:07	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	4	96¢	$3	0x87818c…
07-19 06:43:27	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	68	96¢	$65	0xb8b51b…
07-17 11:29:36	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	337	98¢	$329	0xb94b2c…
07-12 04:31:11	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	135	96¢	$129	0x13ae4d…
07-11 22:41:46	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	256	97¢	$248	0xa72db0…
07-11 22:41:05	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xeca81b…
07-11 22:40:46	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	250	97¢	$242	0x574769…
07-11 02:53:19	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	No	BUY	51	98¢	$51	0x80b289…
07-11 02:52:17	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0x298db5…
07-11 02:50:58	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	BUY	27	96¢	$26	0x5012f5…
07-08 03:05:22	will graham platner drop out by july 17 974 785 861	Yes	BUY	39	92¢	$36	0x55de72…
07-08 02:49:14	will graham platner drop out by july 17 974 785 861	Yes	BUY	104	93¢	$97	0x42fb03…
07-07 17:31:07	will graham platner drop out by july 31 281 424 921	Yes	BUY	121	99¢	$119	0x649ada…
07-07 17:31:07	will graham platner drop out by july 17 974 785 861	Yes	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x462cdb…
07-07 17:31:07	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	Yes	BUY	112	99¢	$111	0x301ae9…
07-07 06:54:25	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	No	BUY	137	98¢	$134	0x8a199d…
07-05 00:02:25	will trump speak to masoud pezeshkian in july 20260626154217438	No	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0x6c57fe…
07-03 07:47:11	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	983	99¢	$973	0x6690e3…
07-03 07:35:32	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	65	99¢	$65	0xf103fa…
07-03 06:35:50	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	70	99¢	$69	0x249208…
07-03 06:33:31	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	37	99¢	$36	0xee4053…
07-02 16:11:08	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	377	97¢	$365	0xd7621f…
07-01 22:58:37	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x8f0a2c…
07-01 22:58:17	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x13e974…
06-29 10:17:04	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	304	98¢	$299	0x16b344…
06-29 10:16:02	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	500	98¢	$491	0x446d23…
06-29 10:12:04	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	46	98¢	$45	0x84fece…
06-29 03:59:35	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	499	100¢	$498	0x3ce7b9…
06-29 03:59:35	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x079675…
06-29 03:59:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	59	100¢	$59	0x4b1482…
06-29 03:37:14	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	1,081	98¢	$1,059	0x0aa08d…
06-29 03:15:53	will trump speak to mark rutte in july 20260626154217435	Yes	BUY	54	98¢	$53	0x8f66d2…
06-29 03:11:53	will the us announce a blockade on iran by june 30 20260622191116911	No	BUY	57	98¢	$56	0x9f86b1…
06-29 03:10:13	will the us announce a blockade on iran by june 30 20260622191116911	No	BUY	70	98¢	$69	0x9ba347…
06-29 03:09:55	will the us announce a blockade on iran by june 30 20260622191116911	No	BUY	70	98¢	$69	0x13684e…
06-29 03:02:55	will trump meet with joseph aoun in june 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x34091c…
06-22 15:42:20	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	No	BUY	17	93¢	$16	0x794d8d…
06-13 16:38:15	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	85	99¢	$84	0xebe91e…
06-13 16:37:15	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	85	99¢	$84	0x2c7e5d…
06-13 11:15:33	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	45	99¢	$45	0x9d5155…
06-13 08:20:39	israel closes its airspace by june 13	No	BUY	57	99¢	$56	0xddc107…
06-13 06:38:01	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	75	98¢	$73	0x4f90ff…
06-13 06:37:40	Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xad3c82…
06-13 06:37:01	will trump meet with keir starmer in june 2026	Yes	BUY	8	97¢	$7	0x7c171f…
06-13 06:36:01	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	196	99¢	$194	0xf83dc5…
06-13 06:36:00	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$20	0xebd29d…
06-12 12:40:13	president trump to attend usa opening match 20260607163739001	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xca943e…
06-12 12:35:15	president trump to attend usa opening match 20260607163739001	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf9a58c…
06-10 02:04:49	israel closes its airspace by june 12	No	BUY	47	89¢	$42	0x6d71b7…
06-10 02:01:09	israel closes its airspace by june 10	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xe18d21…
06-10 01:58:10	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	93¢	$19	0xd45881…
06-10 01:55:49	israel closes its airspace by june 10	No	BUY	47	94¢	$44	0xf843f2…
06-10 01:55:13	israel closes its airspace by june 10	No	BUY	57	94¢	$54	0xbdcfa9…
06-10 01:54:30	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	61	92¢	$56	0x3488a7…
06-09 17:52:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	296	98¢	$289	0xadbc8c…
06-09 13:50:46	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	38	98¢	$37	0xa82a39…
06-09 12:44:16	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	77	98¢	$75	0x93a65a…
06-09 12:04:55	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xbae827…
06-09 11:26:49	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	No	BUY	101	97¢	$98	0x76af45…
06-09 11:26:07	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	36	98¢	$35	0xf8d382…
06-09 06:16:09	will trump meet with keir starmer in june 2026	Yes	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x75e4fe…
06-09 06:05:18	will trump meet with keir starmer in june 2026	Yes	BUY	24	96¢	$23	0xd75c5e…
06-09 06:04:37	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xfde2b7…
06-09 06:04:37	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	149	98¢	$147	0x6a5dd4…
06-09 05:42:36	will trump meet with giorgia meloni in june 2026	Yes	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0x5e8321…
06-08 03:07:25	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0xfcae54…
06-08 03:07:25	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	62	93¢	$58	0xdc81ac…
06-08 03:07:25	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0xb81976…
06-08 03:07:25	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0xaeb7a7…
06-08 03:07:25	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x8f0dd0…
06-08 03:07:25	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x6c1e29…
06-08 03:07:25	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x5ffc97…
06-08 03:07:25	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x5e8694…
06-08 03:07:25	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x10861c…
06-08 03:07:25	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x0731fc…
06-08 03:07:24	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$5	0xfdbfd1…
06-08 03:07:24	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x9e9107…
06-08 03:07:24	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x02ab61…
06-08 02:16:03	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	66	98¢	$64	0xcb6b31…
06-07 19:26:03	abbas araghchi out as minister of foreign affairs of iran by june 30 2026	No	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0x0bff51…
06-07 19:22:16	abbas araghchi out as minister of foreign affairs of iran by june 30 2026	No	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0x26c49a…
06-07 19:21:00	abbas araghchi out as minister of foreign affairs of iran by june 30 2026	No	BUY	24	94¢	$23	0xcfa514…
06-07 09:17:49	will trump meet with keir starmer in june 2026	Yes	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0xbf590b…
06-04 06:55:19	will trump meet with kim jong un in june 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7e3777…
06-04 05:29:58	will trump meet with luiz incio lula da silva in june 2026	Yes	BUY	28	72¢	$20	0xac6742…
06-04 05:27:19	will trump meet with kim jong un in june 2026	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xd0602f…
06-04 05:26:58	Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$19	0xcc849d…
06-04 05:25:39	Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0xf64fd6…
06-04 05:25:39	Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	97¢	$12	0x584adc…
06-04 04:04:57	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	49	99¢	$49	0xa5a2b7…
06-04 04:04:37	U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	46	98¢	$45	0xb4bccc…
06-03 02:50:24	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	58	73¢	$42	0xafc8d6…