Failing-Insurgence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

84.1%

Resolved

Trades

205

lifetime

Volume

$7.04K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$34

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-18

last 05-19 12:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

62% — —

Politics

34% 67% +$1

Sports

2% — —

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	11	$479	246	246	+0	open	—	05-09 04:23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	8	$364	189	189	+0	No	+$0	05-10 08:00
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	9	$361	188	188	+0	No	+$1	05-08 16:25
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	7	$277	143	142	+1	open	—	03-25 03:39
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	4	$250	133	133	+0	open	—	05-12 14:39
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	5	$236	122	122	+0	open	—	04-26 19:19
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$157	285	285	+0	open	—	04-21 04:02
Will Trump visit China by May 8?	2	$137	70	70	+0	No	$-0	04-20 01:46
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 220 239	3	$133	70	70	+0	open	—	04-02 07:10
military action against iran ends on march 29 2026	3	$132	67	67	+0	open	—	03-24 16:43
will justin rose win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$131	69	69	+0	open	—	04-11 23:49
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	2	$130	69	69	+0	open	—	04-12 12:41
will jon rahm win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$130	66	66	+0	open	—	04-09 20:40
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	2	$129	67	67	+0	open	—	05-11 13:17
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 340 359	4	$128	65	65	+0	open	—	03-18 13:57
will michigan state win the 2026 ncaa tournament	2	$127	65	65	+0	open	—	03-27 08:15
will trn thanh mn be the next president of vietnam	5	$126	130	130	+0	open	—	03-31 15:14
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	4	$126	136	136	+0	open	—	04-08 01:37
Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?	2	$125	63	63	+0	open	—	04-23 22:46
will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	3	$124	64	64	+0	open	—	04-11 01:01
will viktor hovland win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$124	63	63	+0	open	—	04-04 21:08
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$123	62	62	+0	open	—	04-27 02:11
will joaquin niemann win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$123	62	62	+0	open	—	04-03 15:26
will keegan bradley win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$123	62	62	+0	open	—	04-05 12:48
will chris gotterup win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$122	62	62	+0	open	—	04-07 11:45
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	2	$122	67	67	+0	open	—	03-31 21:26
will akshay bhatia win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$122	62	62	+0	open	—	04-06 20:15
will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	2	$122	64	64	+0	open	—	03-31 04:49
will la u win the third most seats in the 2026 colombian chamber of representatives election	3	$121	63	63	+0	open	—	04-14 04:11
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 180 199	3	$120	62	62	+0	open	—	03-25 23:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-19 12:17:35	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	28	5¢	$1	0x615310…
05-19 05:24:17	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0xd6e2c9…
05-19 05:24:17	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0xa08cae…
05-18 22:25:41	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0xa12dc7…
05-18 22:25:41	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x10472a…
05-12 14:39:01	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	63	95¢	$60	0xf82ba7…
05-12 09:33:03	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	63	95¢	$60	0x5540f3…
05-11 21:10:39	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	24	96¢	$23	0x0e184f…
05-11 21:10:39	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	38	96¢	$37	0x072579…
05-11 17:57:09	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	62	96¢	$59	0xd26a8a…
05-11 13:17:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	67	97¢	$65	0xe6006e…
05-11 11:18:13	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	67	96¢	$65	0xcbccd6…
05-11 09:11:27	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	70	94¢	$65	0x8c2775…
05-11 07:40:39	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	70	94¢	$65	0xdef7db…
05-10 08:00:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	61	96¢	$59	0xeacb54…
05-10 05:37:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	61	96¢	$59	0x7a79ba…
05-09 18:05:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	27	96¢	$26	0xfbae36…
05-09 18:05:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	29	96¢	$28	0x88aaf8…
05-09 18:05:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x4f5f7b…
05-09 14:35:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	61	96¢	$59	0x65d6e5…
05-09 14:23:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	67	96¢	$65	0x2995a2…
05-09 12:47:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	67	96¢	$64	0x7cc4e5…
05-09 04:23:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	60	98¢	$59	0xb8ffa3…
05-09 01:31:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	44	97¢	$43	0x8726c0…
05-09 01:31:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0x1f4a1a…
05-08 21:39:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	60	98¢	$59	0xc45b41…
05-08 18:27:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	60	98¢	$58	0xcba034…
05-08 16:25:47	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	65	99¢	$64	0xc8017c…
05-08 13:51:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	65	98¢	$64	0x64b550…
05-08 05:18:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0x716f83…
05-08 05:18:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	28	97¢	$27	0x622ade…
05-08 02:52:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0xaa3ade…
05-08 02:52:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	56	97¢	$54	0x28ca0d…
05-07 21:59:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	66	97¢	$64	0x3fb24a…
05-07 20:45:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	66	97¢	$64	0x04e450…
05-06 23:23:38	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	129	2¢	$2	0x6b5bce…
05-06 21:08:49	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	129	1¢	$2	0x3d5308…
05-05 15:28:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	60	96¢	$58	0x3ac75a…
05-05 11:44:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	60	97¢	$58	0xbe1934…
05-03 20:16:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	27	94¢	$25	0x621f0e…
05-03 20:16:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	35	94¢	$33	0x02b36c…
05-03 16:43:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	28	94¢	$26	0xb96701…
05-03 16:43:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	34	94¢	$32	0x7aaed0…
05-03 13:48:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	14	96¢	$13	0xd5d242…
05-03 13:48:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	47	96¢	$45	0xc02215…
05-03 09:39:12	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	61	96¢	$58	0xa69d74…
04-30 18:35:06	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xb9c333…
04-30 18:35:04	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	SELL	53	99¢	$52	0x59162a…
04-30 15:13:22	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	59	99¢	$58	0x6a0d99…
04-29 23:02:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	59	98¢	$58	0xce9456…
04-29 15:51:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0x9cc825…
04-29 15:51:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0x378c75…
04-28 02:04:22	Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x208221…
04-27 07:00:06	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0xf7650c…
04-27 07:00:04	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	50	95¢	$47	0x4a0e06…
04-27 03:06:08	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0xf32d3b…
04-27 03:06:08	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	34	92¢	$31	0xef4a39…
04-27 02:11:36	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	62	98¢	$61	0x557fc4…
04-26 23:40:50	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	62	99¢	$62	0xcb8992…
04-26 19:19:12	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	63	98¢	$61	0x397668…
04-26 17:46:26	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	BUY	63	98¢	$61	0xef72dc…
04-26 08:14:32	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0xf84d3b…
04-26 08:14:32	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	46	98¢	$45	0x6fb29a…
04-26 03:39:06	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	58	98¢	$57	0x825bb2…
04-26 01:30:56	Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	57	98¢	$56	0x71d840…
04-25 20:55:30	Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	57	97¢	$56	0xbdd1e9…
04-24 23:45:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	14	93¢	$13	0x52dfca…
04-24 23:45:00	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0xc62519…
04-24 15:37:46	Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0xa12b39…
04-24 15:37:16	Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	17	98¢	$16	0xbc22e4…
04-24 15:37:00	Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0x67125c…
04-24 15:37:00	Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x1fc066…
04-24 14:10:44	Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	49	98¢	$48	0xf74b0c…
04-24 14:10:44	Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xd3dcfa…
04-24 11:24:22	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	18	98¢	$18	0x77b605…
04-24 11:24:22	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0x2aab44…
04-24 07:20:54	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	58	98¢	$57	0x4174d9…
04-24 02:50:18	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	29	95¢	$28	0x023631…
04-24 02:49:32	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	29	95¢	$28	0xe56c0f…
04-23 22:46:02	Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	63	99¢	$62	0xddf173…
04-23 20:23:14	Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	63	99¢	$62	0xd0accd…
04-23 12:12:36	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xd91430…
04-23 12:12:36	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	54	96¢	$52	0x321bbd…
04-23 08:35:08	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	BUY	59	96¢	$57	0x676670…
04-22 11:39:28	Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	57	98¢	$56	0x8f0c9e…
04-22 09:46:38	Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	57	98¢	$56	0xbb66d9…
04-21 16:37:52	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xb55b2c…
04-21 16:37:50	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0xbcfd7e…
04-21 15:16:30	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xf56ba5…
04-21 15:16:30	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	BUY	37	97¢	$36	0x003ce3…
04-21 04:02:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	71	86¢	$61	0x987a7f…
04-21 02:13:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	71	94¢	$67	0xe5f420…
04-20 12:22:12	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	SELL	214	6¢	$13	0xeedf7e…
04-20 09:46:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	214	7¢	$15	0x847805…
04-20 03:26:28	Will Iran strike Afghanistan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	3¢	$2	0xcb5ea0…
04-20 03:26:28	Will Iran strike Afghanistan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	98	3¢	$3	0x8b2d70…
04-20 01:51:40	Will Iran strike Afghanistan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	3¢	$2	0xd7c752…
04-20 01:51:38	Will Iran strike Afghanistan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	86	3¢	$3	0x8e08f4…
04-20 01:51:38	Will Iran strike Afghanistan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	3¢	$0	0x58a53c…
04-20 01:46:30	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	No	SELL	70	98¢	$68	0x8e42e4…