Friendly-Normal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$17

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

96.8%

Resolved

Trades

549

lifetime

Volume

$76.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$139

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-24

last 07-19 12:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

66% 100% +$33

Other

31% 100% +$5

Sports

2% 50% +$1

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

0% 0% $-22

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 44 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	22	$9.2K	4,921	4,921	+0	open	—	05-10 21:51
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	30	$9.2K	7,057	3,489	+3,568	open	—	05-31 16:48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	29	$8.4K	5,438	6,374	-937	open	—	05-28 18:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	34	$6.4K	4,268	3,510	+758	open	—	05-27 15:15
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	5	$5.4K	3,920	1,550	+2,370	open	—	06-02 12:25
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	17	$4.8K	2,447	2,447	+0	open	—	06-11 11:40
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	20	$3.6K	2,835	1,330	+1,506	open	—	05-11 15:49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	4	$3.6K	1,895	1,942	-47	open	—	05-11 21:27
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	44	$3.3K	4,377	5,143	-767	open	—	06-20 15:28
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	4	$2.8K	2,912	0	+2,912	open	—	05-28 21:15
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	5	$2.7K	1,498	1,578	-79	open	—	06-07 13:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	14	$1.9K	1,759	394	+1,365	open	—	05-26 14:25
76ers vs. Celtics	4	$1.3K	606	734	-128	open	—	05-03 01:58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	5	$1.2K	756	506	+250	No	+$33	05-10 22:02
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	13	$1.1K	1,714	102	+1,611	open	—	05-24 22:30
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	2	$1.0K	572	572	+0	open	—	05-28 20:54
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	13	$922	802	802	+0	open	—	05-29 18:47
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	6	$849	497	636	-139	open	—	06-04 16:30
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	3	$802	423	423	+0	open	—	05-20 21:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	2	$600	652	0	+652	open	—	05-20 21:40
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	7	$518	406	486	-80	open	—	05-28 16:47
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	15	$496	572	572	+0	open	—	05-28 09:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	10	$436	746	746	+0	open	—	07-14 19:27
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	8	$355	466	683	-218	open	—	06-14 22:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$298	39	348	-309	open	—	06-15 17:44
iran closes its airspace by june 8	18	$284	3,294	0	+3,294	open	—	06-07 22:59
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	3	$283	224	224	+0	open	—	06-30 17:19
fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	2	$261	137	137	+0	open	—	07-14 21:02
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	12	$231	1,525	1,775	-250	open	—	06-15 11:31
will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	2	$214	172	172	+0	open	—	06-15 11:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 12:00:42	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	116	41¢	$48	0x4296aa…
07-18 21:07:09	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	33	36¢	$12	0xa7ac10…
07-18 21:06:37	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 total 2pt5	Under	SELL	88	15¢	$13	0x1edbe9…
07-16 16:46:04	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	60	56¢	$34	0x5940f2…
07-16 13:53:19	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0x798c0a…
07-16 13:52:17	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	88	34¢	$30	0x47caa4…
07-16 07:32:17	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	54	56¢	$30	0xf51375…
07-16 07:26:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	202	11¢	$22	0xdd63a7…
07-15 10:17:52	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	England	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x14313d…
07-15 10:16:29	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0xf4af25…
07-14 21:02:22	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	Spain	SELL	137	100¢	$137	0xa9566c…
07-14 20:25:26	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	Spain	BUY	137	91¢	$125	0x14aef4…
07-14 19:27:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	372	2¢	$7	0xfa7620…
07-14 15:20:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x65a08b…
07-13 08:17:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x6a76ae…
07-09 20:31:35	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 3pt5	Over	SELL	70	34¢	$24	0x73501b…
07-07 19:11:35	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	70	33¢	$23	0x77cd07…
07-07 19:11:04	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 2pt5	Under	SELL	55	44¢	$24	0x6d0b5e…
07-07 19:06:23	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	55	45¢	$25	0xea929c…
07-06 20:00:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	125	28¢	$35	0x7dd859…
07-06 19:59:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x937644…
07-04 22:21:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	111	18¢	$20	0x2f3ce2…
06-30 17:20:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	143	35¢	$50	0x918f31…
06-30 17:19:29	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	112	82¢	$92	0xb9ca26…
06-30 15:03:58	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	54	9¢	$5	0x4e2de5…
06-30 01:04:40	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	112	80¢	$90	0xcadb01…
06-26 17:23:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	150	45¢	$67	0x4e1bcb…
06-26 17:16:34	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	224	45¢	$101	0x69458c…
06-26 17:14:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	224	45¢	$101	0x4f32a6…
06-23 17:28:53	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	111	0¢	$0	0xe3d518…
06-20 17:11:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	41	17¢	$7	0xb44410…
06-20 17:08:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	52	58¢	$30	0xd3b5a5…
06-20 15:32:29	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	65	46¢	$30	0x27d32a…
06-20 15:28:11	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	593	3¢	$20	0x8471ef…
06-20 03:07:29	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	86	45¢	$39	0xb93318…
06-19 23:06:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	80	50¢	$40	0xf3189d…
06-19 23:05:28	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x6ae950…
06-19 23:04:53	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	103	48¢	$50	0x62eeac…
06-19 07:50:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x5acb42…
06-18 18:39:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	228	44¢	$100	0xeecb3e…
06-18 16:09:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	226	20¢	$45	0xe58b2f…
06-18 02:35:17	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	52	20¢	$10	0xd424cb…
06-18 02:35:17	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	250	20¢	$50	0x95994e…
06-17 22:36:28	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	No	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x888083…
06-17 21:48:29	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	No	SELL	71	60¢	$43	0x58f3ce…
06-17 21:47:05	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	No	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x4abd75…
06-17 21:46:23	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	No	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x898d77…
06-17 21:42:59	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	No	SELL	71	50¢	$36	0x145f84…
06-17 15:21:55	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	No	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0xa3f5ca…
06-15 19:31:36	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	400	5¢	$20	0x86c82d…
06-15 18:42:03	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	10¢	$100	0x1cfeef…
06-15 17:44:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	348	77¢	$268	0x216292…
06-15 11:32:07	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	SELL	172	66¢	$114	0x3efeb0…
06-15 11:31:07	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	249	20¢	$50	0xb4fc73…
06-14 22:40:51	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	No	SELL	597	0¢	$1	0xfefbb4…
06-14 22:22:36	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	55	11¢	$6	0xebc01e…
06-14 22:17:57	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	259	10¢	$26	0x143d3d…
06-14 22:11:15	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	429	7¢	$30	0xfa92da…
06-14 20:46:07	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	No	BUY	32	72¢	$23	0x977d77…
06-14 20:45:45	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	SELL	56	41¢	$23	0x61abdd…
06-14 15:02:27	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	500	6¢	$30	0x66c9b3…
06-14 11:10:55	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	56	36¢	$20	0xc368da…
06-14 11:06:07	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	No	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0xaa1e53…
06-14 11:03:39	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	No	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0x5b3bdb…
06-13 18:03:24	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	No	BUY	81	62¢	$50	0x396288…
06-13 17:59:10	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	Yes	SELL	86	36¢	$31	0xa1b32d…
06-13 17:01:16	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	Yes	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x33a843…
06-13 16:57:48	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0xacb8e8…
06-13 16:56:16	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	Yes	BUY	52	57¢	$30	0xcc06a1…
06-13 16:56:00	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	Yes	SELL	187	9¢	$17	0x105cb3…
06-13 16:51:37	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	Yes	BUY	76	26¢	$20	0x9ff470…
06-13 16:50:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	39	76¢	$30	0x608872…
06-13 07:40:15	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	600	7¢	$42	0xa4e210…
06-12 23:31:46	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	127	6¢	$8	0x2d3776…
06-12 23:30:13	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0x15a44f…
06-12 23:21:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	500	40¢	$200	0xdae0ff…
06-12 23:16:03	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	40¢	$80	0x4416e9…
06-12 23:07:31	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	25	40¢	$10	0x067eba…
06-12 22:59:37	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	150	40¢	$60	0xd51d68…
06-12 22:48:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	40¢	$403	0xd91117…
06-12 22:47:39	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	40¢	$401	0xe7a843…
06-11 11:49:37	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	BUY	139	36¢	$50	0x4b2040…
06-11 11:40:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	1,480	99¢	$1,471	0xe6fe01…
06-10 12:59:07	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	366	68¢	$249	0xb78e5a…
06-10 12:58:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	250	99¢	$248	0x0b35cf…
06-10 11:43:58	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	682	66¢	$450	0x0f0499…
06-10 11:43:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	450	99¢	$447	0x2f5964…
06-07 22:59:34	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	75	0¢	$0	0x6b9f51…
06-07 22:53:12	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	1,667	1¢	$10	0x756ccf…
06-07 22:52:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x27f754…
06-07 22:50:24	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x6a1cf3…
06-07 21:49:48	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	133	4¢	$6	0x6bba38…
06-07 21:49:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x65c375…
06-07 21:28:16	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	156	6¢	$10	0x242989…
06-07 21:27:57	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	139	7¢	$10	0xf2c2d3…
06-07 21:27:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x1da2c2…
06-07 21:00:39	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	81	6¢	$5	0x7efaa8…
06-07 20:59:00	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	195	8¢	$15	0x18217d…
06-07 20:58:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x9c7b70…
06-07 20:54:43	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	102	10¢	$10	0x61f155…