Watchful-Rations — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$42

Unrealized P&L

-$86

Hit rate

44.1%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

11 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$341

$341 lifetime

Avg / trade

$31

Open exposure

$92

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-05

last 05-09 18:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

74% 40% $-42

Politics

26% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	+224	$45	22¢	$51	+$6	05-06 00:22
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	+10,771	$32	0¢	$27	$-5	05-06 00:29
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	+200	$88	8¢	$15	$-73	05-06 00:49
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-09?	No	+40	$14	0¢	$0	$-14	05-09 18:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	1	$88	200	+200	open	—	05-06 00:49
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	2	$49	200	+200	Yes	$-49	05-05 20:03
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)	1	$46	80	+80	Club Atlético de Madrid	+$34	05-05 20:03
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?	1	$45	224	+224	open	—	05-06 00:22
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$32	10,771	+10,771	open	—	05-06 00:29
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	1	$25	40	+40	No	+$15	05-06 19:05
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?	1	$21	50	+50	No	$-21	05-06 19:05
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-05?	2	$21	95	+95	Yes	$-21	05-05 22:35
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-09?	1	$14	40	+40	open	—	05-09 18:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-09 18:10:36	Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-09?	No	BUY	40	34¢	$14	0x8e51f8…
05-06 19:05:25	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?	Yes	BUY	50	42¢	$21	0x4a6b8f…
05-06 19:05:15	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	No	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0xac7fa5…
05-06 00:49:22	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	200	44¢	$88	0x76c269…
05-06 00:29:02	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	10,771	0¢	$32	0x17aa02…
05-06 00:22:54	Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	224	20¢	$45	0xeaf374…
05-05 22:35:18	Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-05?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x9ce9ce…
05-05 22:35:10	Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-05?	No	BUY	90	22¢	$20	0x9a03ad…
05-05 20:03:40	Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)	Club Atlético de Madrid	BUY	80	58¢	$46	0x73e518…
05-05 20:03:22	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	No	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0xd293b3…
05-05 19:44:58	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	No	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0xd1e576…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Frail-Possible 0x204f…5e14	6	$61.9K	91	05-09 18:20
Outlying-Recall 0x01c7…e995	5	$16.7K	41	05-09 18:22
Happy-Go-Lucky-Min 0x84ad…bfb7	5	$2.27K	248	05-09 18:21
Conscious-Outfielder 0xdb83…1e50	5	$927	26	05-07 15:42
Bumpy-Accessory 0x32cc…68b3	5	$641	45	05-09 17:55
Scary-Edible 0x2005…75ea	4	$37.2K	10	05-09 18:22
Miserable-Poison 0x0346…52a5	4	$29.1K	19	05-06 20:36
Flowery-Overclocking 0x7a49…d9f5	4	$2.07K	5	05-09 18:22