Insidious-Workhorse — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

98.5%

Resolved

Trades

21,839

lifetime

Volume

$1.44M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$66

Open exposure

$26

1 position

First seen

2026-02-05

last 07-12 16:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Other

64% 100% +$11

Politics

19% 80% +$0

Crypto

14% 100% +$0

Tech

3% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 198 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No		+26	$26	98¢	$26	$-0	07-12 16:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	216	$20.1K	10,841	9,511	+1,330	open	—	04-15 02:13
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	209	$19.7K	10,732	9,199	+1,532	open	—	03-29 04:06
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	227	$19.7K	11,240	8,777	+2,463	open	—	03-30 17:26
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	259	$16.6K	8,703	8,023	+680	open	—	04-12 09:25
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	307	$15.6K	8,679	7,140	+1,539	open	—	04-12 20:15
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	150	$14.4K	8,342	6,353	+1,988	open	—	04-15 11:43
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	188	$14.0K	7,922	6,238	+1,684	open	—	03-30 04:22
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	115	$13.5K	7,035	6,592	+443	open	—	03-29 09:51
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	147	$13.5K	7,828	5,816	+2,012	open	—	04-21 20:18
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	139	$13.4K	7,500	6,051	+1,449	open	—	03-30 12:22
will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	152	$12.5K	6,916	5,811	+1,105	open	—	03-28 13:31
Netanyahu out by April 30?	191	$12.5K	7,370	5,324	+2,045	open	—	04-15 12:33
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	172	$12.3K	6,804	5,629	+1,175	open	—	03-31 06:51
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	123	$12.2K	7,116	5,258	+1,858	open	—	03-25 00:53
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	172	$12.2K	6,796	5,659	+1,136	open	—	04-28 04:40
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	132	$12.1K	6,410	5,883	+526	open	—	03-28 01:41
netanyahu out by march 31 854	116	$10.6K	5,759	4,973	+786	open	—	03-31 06:12
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	117	$10.1K	5,325	4,891	+434	open	—	04-02 16:00
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	111	$10.0K	6,221	3,922	+2,299	open	—	03-31 03:44
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	123	$9.9K	5,566	4,424	+1,143	open	—	04-12 20:30
elon musk of tweets march 23 march 25 0 39	130	$9.8K	5,667	4,254	+1,413	open	—	03-25 04:43
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	195	$9.4K	5,088	4,452	+636	open	—	02-27 22:04
will jordan spieth win the 2026 masters tournament	179	$9.2K	4,971	4,460	+511	open	—	03-16 20:39
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	100	$9.1K	4,857	4,395	+463	open	—	04-20 10:53
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 240 259	134	$8.8K	5,127	3,716	+1,411	open	—	04-16 07:31
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 220 239	120	$8.7K	4,586	4,236	+350	open	—	03-26 11:25
will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	109	$8.7K	5,505	3,301	+2,204	open	—	03-31 16:46
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	99	$8.7K	4,619	4,199	+420	open	—	03-31 05:30
will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	83	$8.3K	4,239	4,239	+0	open	—	03-27 09:44
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	99	$8.1K	4,515	3,675	+840	open	—	04-20 19:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-12 16:17:43	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0xa85a54…
06-30 09:15:43	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x42b703…
06-30 00:18:47	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x6021bd…
06-30 00:08:17	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x4cda77…
06-30 00:00:05	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x521fea…
06-29 23:59:29	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xc003c6…
06-29 23:52:28	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	99¢	$78	0x582802…
06-29 23:30:23	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xc72ff8…
06-29 23:29:46	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xdb0f2c…
06-29 23:28:46	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xb75dc2…
06-29 23:25:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xd41a29…
06-29 16:59:41	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	99¢	$52	0xbde9e8…
06-29 15:58:34	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x78e618…
06-29 15:55:55	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x706fb5…
06-29 15:44:49	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xfa12c8…
06-29 15:32:04	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xff4a5b…
06-29 15:29:26	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xb739b4…
06-29 15:28:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xe5a214…
06-29 15:16:52	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	99¢	$52	0x5adc0a…
06-29 15:13:31	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x102700…
06-29 15:12:02	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x2d42c0…
06-29 15:09:55	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0xee93ab…
06-29 14:41:50	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x1c8952…
06-29 14:39:37	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xf3e060…
06-29 14:33:22	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x787cd7…
06-29 14:32:49	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xf123dc…
06-29 14:32:07	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x3063d0…
06-29 14:26:58	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x932c1d…
06-29 14:25:44	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x84f591…
06-29 14:21:26	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x49252a…
06-29 14:20:26	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x4756f5…
06-29 14:19:56	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x743ee6…
06-29 14:14:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0xfce7e6…
06-29 14:12:56	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	99¢	$26	0x20bfb9…
06-29 14:10:22	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xe452ad…
06-29 14:09:13	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x6c30cf…
06-29 14:06:22	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0x75a410…
06-29 14:03:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	99¢	$52	0xde1d9a…
06-29 14:03:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	98¢	$52	0x674f1c…
06-29 13:59:20	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0xf8a1a1…
06-29 13:58:07	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0x3040ec…
06-29 13:56:35	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x5f30b7…
06-29 13:55:47	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0x03c175…
06-29 13:55:32	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0x1ddf95…
06-29 13:54:04	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xfe52aa…
06-29 13:51:43	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0xf74f31…
06-29 13:28:26	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	99¢	$42	0x92ad3c…
06-29 13:10:26	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x857101…
06-29 13:09:32	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x358d24…
06-29 13:06:19	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x4ffad6…
06-29 13:02:04	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x45ccf1…
06-29 11:32:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	96¢	$26	0xe6b512…
06-29 11:26:20	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	95¢	$26	0xcf7cbb…
06-29 11:20:04	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	95¢	$26	0x323773…
06-29 11:13:13	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	97¢	$26	0x1ce52b…
06-29 09:50:35	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	97¢	$26	0x9d7d46…
06-29 09:45:59	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	96¢	$26	0x848de2…
06-29 09:33:32	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	97¢	$26	0xb71cca…
06-29 09:27:35	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	97¢	$26	0xcc4b6d…
06-29 08:21:50	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	96¢	$26	0xae3274…
06-29 08:18:50	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	98¢	$52	0x519a6e…
06-29 08:02:17	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0x3720f1…
06-29 08:01:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0xfbd073…
06-29 08:01:01	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0x89fadb…
06-29 07:56:19	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0xd01ef1…
06-29 07:47:23	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0xb0d51c…
06-29 07:47:22	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0xc6603f…
06-29 07:42:52	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0x34bdab…
06-29 07:37:17	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0xed0f63…
06-29 04:39:47	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x439d92…
06-29 04:01:58	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	99¢	$26	0xf08fda…
06-29 03:50:17	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0xcb3760…
06-29 03:46:58	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0x7a00cc…
06-29 03:28:59	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0x027be4…
06-29 02:36:13	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	98¢	$26	0xeb2fbc…
06-29 02:35:02	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	97¢	$26	0xd348b7…
06-29 02:22:17	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	97¢	$26	0x586003…
06-29 02:10:44	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	97¢	$26	0xe78eda…
06-29 02:06:41	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	97¢	$26	0xaf68bc…
06-29 02:00:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	97¢	$26	0x73285e…
06-29 01:43:47	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	98¢	$26	0xc5427f…
06-29 01:43:47	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	98¢	$26	0x6930e5…
06-29 01:38:16	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	97¢	$26	0x86e5ee…
06-29 01:36:16	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0xb5ee0f…
06-29 01:34:19	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0x54e54b…
06-29 01:06:08	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0xf4f347…
06-29 00:07:10	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	98¢	$26	0x6f7696…
06-28 23:56:44	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	97¢	$26	0x19218a…
06-28 22:37:22	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	97¢	$26	0xe31058…
06-28 22:18:07	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	97¢	$26	0x8bc44c…
06-28 18:19:59	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	98¢	$16	0xf92e72…
06-28 18:08:50	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0x46296f…
06-28 17:24:46	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	98¢	$26	0xf46a5f…
06-28 17:22:55	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	97¢	$26	0xbc5ed6…
06-28 17:21:01	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x432383…
06-28 17:15:50	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	97¢	$26	0x4ecfea…
06-28 17:08:02	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	98¢	$52	0xedc825…
06-28 17:05:37	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0x4c2183…
06-28 17:05:19	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0xbce2bc…
06-28 16:55:49	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0x7dff73…