Unconscious-Icebreaker — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$36

Unrealized P&L

-$22

Hit rate

49.9%

Resolved

133

Trades

240

lifetime

Volume

$2.75K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$18

1 position

First seen

2026-01-30

last 10-09 13:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 46 days

Categories

Other

46% 50% +$84

Politics

42% 44% +$76

Crypto

12% 25% -$124

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will russia capture kupiansk vuzlovyi by december 31 547	Yes		+167	$40	11¢	$18	-$22	10-02 20:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	21	$709	7,952	940	+7,011	Yes	-$53	03-03 00:42
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	3	$121	320	320	+0	Yes	+$8	02-27 15:51
will russia enter oleksiievo druzhkivka by september 30 20260706175201730	1	$100	116	0	+116	Yes	+$16	07-29 10:14
will russia enter matiasheve by october 31 20260724170338274	1	$100	104	0	+104	Yes	+$4	08-06 17:07
will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	3	$100	147	0	+147	Yes	+$47	07-05 14:57
will russia enter orikhiv by september 30	1	$95	99	0	+99	Yes	+$4	08-04 20:13
Will Russia capture Toretske by October 31, 2026?	2	$82	42	42	+0	Yes	+$2	09-01 07:45
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	1	$81	131	0	+131	Yes	+$50	05-22 10:11
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	2	$76	58	58	+0	open	—	07-05 14:57
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30?	2	$74	49	49	+0	No	+$4	08-31 18:54
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?	1	$66	82	0	+82	Yes	+$16	05-15 08:03
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	6	$63	334	334	+0	Yes	-$17	02-28 21:40
will russia capture all of huliaipole by march 31	2	$54	68	68	+0	No	-$1	02-27 10:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 09:35 UTC	1	$52	54	0	+54	Down	+$2	03-10 09:39
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	1	$50	200	0	+200	Yes	+$150	02-27 18:52
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?	2	$49	85	85	+0	Yes	+$10	02-27 15:51
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30?	3	$42	36	22	+14	No	+$7	09-01 18:51
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?	2	$40	167	0	+167	open	—	10-02 20:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 11:50 UTC	2	$40	56	0	+56	Down	-$40	03-10 11:54
will russia capture lyman by september 30 2026	2	$34	50	50	+0	No	-$6	07-05 14:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 09:40 UTC	1	$30	31	0	+31	Down	+$1	03-10 09:44
will israel or the us target an iranian oil or gas facility 786	1	$30	75	0	+75	No	-$30	02-28 13:26
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	1	$30	81	0	+81	No	-$30	03-05 22:23
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	1	$30	43	0	+43	Yes	+$13	03-03 22:44
Will Russia enter Hannivka by September 30, 2026?	1	$30	35	0	+35	Yes	+$5	09-01 07:45
will russia capture all of huliaipole by february 28	3	$22	66	66	+0	No	+$4	02-28 16:45
Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026?	1	$20	41	0	+41	open	—	09-02 07:13
will russia capture sofiivka by december 31	1	$20	29	0	+29	Yes	+$9	08-09 20:46
Will Russia capture Toretske by September 30, 2026?	2	$19	16	16	+0	Yes	-$1	08-31 18:53
will russia enter kindrashivka by february 28	2	$18	85	85	+0	No	-$12	02-26 22:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-09 13:28:51	Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by December 31?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x53c8c0…
10-09 07:41:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x271e45…
10-05 18:39:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 18:35 UTC	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x0ed510…
10-05 18:39:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 18:35 UTC	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xd9033f…
10-05 18:38:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 18:35 UTC	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x306e8a…
10-05 18:24:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xd16277…
10-03 16:54:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 16:50 UTC	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x6cce29…
10-03 16:54:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 16:50 UTC	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x181db8…
10-03 16:54:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 16:50 UTC	Up	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0xe5e311…
10-03 16:54:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 16:50 UTC	Up	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x7110c8…
10-03 16:53:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 16:50 UTC	Up	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xc74b12…
10-02 20:33:36	Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31?	No	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x6a7d16…
10-02 20:21:05	Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?	Yes	BUY	143	21¢	$30	0x749ca7…
09-07 19:30:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xc7640a…
09-07 19:30:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xdd9302…
09-07 19:29:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x22a1c4…
09-04 12:47:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xe41458…
09-04 12:44:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x2b848d…
09-04 12:43:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x191e32…
09-04 12:43:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x51aac4…
09-04 12:42:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x0e6d09…
09-04 12:41:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x213723…
09-04 12:41:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x50f36a…
09-04 12:41:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xbe0dbe…
09-02 08:43:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x8e68c8…
09-02 08:41:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x1b5f6c…
09-02 07:23:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x9a6099…
09-02 07:23:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x8be3ee…
09-02 07:21:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xb8cb08…
09-02 07:20:48	Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x1a1af8…
09-02 07:13:57	Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0xdfe87b…
09-01 19:51:36	Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30?	Yes	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0xf52ee0…
09-01 18:51:52	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30?	No	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xdc9bca…
09-01 18:45:43	Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?	Yes	BUY	15	40¢	$6	0xe7508c…
09-01 17:01:00	Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?	No	SELL	8	81¢	$7	0x8e3796…
09-01 07:45:40	Will Russia enter Hannivka by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0x4a1351…
09-01 07:45:09	Will Russia capture Toretske by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	99¢	$42	0xe5b2bf…
08-31 19:11:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 19:10 UTC	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x968a4e…
08-31 19:04:09	Will Russia capture Toretske by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	94¢	$40	0x1746dc…
08-31 18:54:52	Will Russia enter Hannivka by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xfbb22d…
08-31 18:54:18	Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30?	No	SELL	49	79¢	$39	0x2a899f…
08-31 18:53:40	Will Russia capture Toretske by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	16	58¢	$9	0xacb6f9…
08-23 09:37:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x2a957c…
08-18 18:39:01	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	SELL	31	1¢	$0	0x2f2586…
08-18 18:38:58	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1 893	No	SELL	35	0¢	$0	0xd484e1…
08-18 17:52:18	will russia capture shevchenko by october 31 20260805162837389	Yes	BUY	22	54¢	$12	0xdb84e8…
08-18 17:52:01	will russia capture shevchenko by august 31 20260805162837388	Yes	BUY	58	9¢	$5	0xb6d6dc…
08-18 17:51:45	will russia capture dovha balka by september 30	No	SELL	22	79¢	$17	0x934a68…
08-10 17:11:01	will russia enter dobropillia by october 31	Yes	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x68e9ff…
08-10 17:03:46	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by september 30	Yes	BUY	11	35¢	$4	0x1d7279…
08-10 16:54:24	will russia enter stinky by september 30	No	SELL	33	6¢	$2	0xe1b9ef…
08-09 21:06:48	will russia capture dovha balka by september 30	No	BUY	22	68¢	$15	0x41e753…
08-09 21:04:19	will ukraine re enter kamianske by september 30	No	BUY	24	62¢	$15	0x5a3c5f…
08-09 21:03:43	will russia capture toretske by september 30 2026	No	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xb586df…
08-09 21:00:16	will russia capture kindrativka by september 30	No	BUY	49	71¢	$35	0x7c52b5…
08-09 20:58:22	will russia enter stavky by september 30	No	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x597172…
08-09 20:55:07	will russia enter stinky by september 30	No	BUY	33	45¢	$15	0x703a5e…
08-09 20:46:45	will russia capture sofiivka by december 31	Yes	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0xf5f75f…
08-07 19:59:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 19:55 UTC	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xc03cf2…
08-07 18:19:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x8859f2…
08-07 18:18:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x4f8efb…
08-07 18:17:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x3ed862…
08-07 18:14:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xe24bf7…
08-07 18:13:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xacbdba…
08-07 18:12:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 18:10 UTC	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x2e893e…
08-06 17:08:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 17:05 UTC	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x549f1c…
08-06 17:07:24	will russia enter matiasheve by october 31 20260724170338274	Yes	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x1ba831…
08-05 11:49:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xe8b73d…
08-05 11:49:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 11:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x84cf46…
08-05 11:23:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 11:20 UTC	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xaa30a4…
08-05 11:18:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 11:15 UTC	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x351fc0…
08-04 20:18:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x7bb6f7…
08-04 20:13:44	will russia enter orikhiv by september 30	Yes	BUY	99	96¢	$95	0x356f0a…
08-04 08:48:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 08:45 UTC	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xa198a1…
08-04 08:46:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 08:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x8d1e35…
08-03 15:53:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 15:50 UTC	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xadfe32…
08-03 15:53:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 15:50 UTC	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xbc9444…
08-03 15:53:24	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xa42927…
08-03 15:52:51	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1 893	No	BUY	35	43¢	$15	0x82bd50…
08-03 15:43:48	will russia capture kupiansk vuzlovyi by december 31 547	Yes	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x13de15…
08-02 18:36:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 18:35 UTC	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x404aed…
08-02 18:35:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 18:35 UTC	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xae7b02…
08-02 18:35:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 18:35 UTC	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xa5fd15…
08-02 16:26:23	will russia enter myrne by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xac2549…
08-02 05:48:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x92cad8…
08-02 05:48:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 05:45 UTC	Down	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0xb1376f…
08-02 05:48:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 05:45 UTC	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xe4424c…
08-02 05:32:02	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	No	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0xb9aa2f…
07-30 18:54:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 18:50 UTC	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xa35a9a…
07-30 18:53:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 18:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x361451…
07-30 18:53:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 18:50 UTC	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x5ad8d0…
07-30 18:49:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x1f5afc…
07-30 16:14:59	will russia capture all of huliaipole by september 30	No	SELL	28	1¢	$0	0xd65b6f…
07-30 14:44:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x66263a…
07-30 14:44:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x9b3111…
07-29 22:17:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 22:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xea8b54…
07-29 19:44:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 19:40 UTC	Up	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x3fee93…
07-29 19:43:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 19:40 UTC	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xc425fb…
07-29 19:30:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 19:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xf907ba…
07-29 19:29:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 19:25 UTC	Up	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xab334d…