Average-Parenting — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$357

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

62.9%

Resolved

2,335

Trades

6,302

lifetime

Volume

$18.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$140

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-10

last 10-28 02:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 68 days

Categories

Crypto

89% 63% -$272

Other

6% 68% -$35

Politics

4% 45% -$48

Sports

0% 83% +$6

Tech

0% 0% -$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes		+140	$70	55¢	$76	+$6	07-28 11:07
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No		+140	$69	46¢	$64	-$5	07-28 10:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	15	$207	180	180	+0	No	-$2	08-18 07:37
Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	8	$172	280	111	+169	open	—	07-29 14:21
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	9	$152	315	51	+264	No	-$2	08-16 16:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 17:20 UTC	3	$140	129	66	+63	Down	+$24	06-20 17:24
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	2	$139	280	0	+280	open	—	07-28 11:07
Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by less than 4%?	2	$115	180	180	+0	No	-$14	07-27 13:31
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	7	$102	204	0	+204	No	$0	08-18 03:25
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?	5	$82	60	60	+0	No	-$4	08-03 09:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 17:15 UTC	2	$74	208	208	+0	Down	+$24	06-20 17:17
Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?	2	$74	140	140	+0	No	-$29	07-30 06:36
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $518,000 and $524,000 on September 30?	2	$66	51	51	+0	No	-$6	08-13 08:49
Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%?	2	$64	51	51	+0	No	-$8	08-01 18:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 17:30 UTC	1	$60	86	0	+86	Up	-$60	06-20 17:31
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	3	$52	102	0	+102	Yes	-$1	08-01 12:37
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?	2	$52	102	0	+102	Yes	-$1	08-01 02:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 13:35 UTC	1	$50	52	0	+52	Up	+$2	08-05 13:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 20:05 UTC	1	$49	50	0	+50	Down	+$1	08-15 20:07
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	2	$43	51	51	+0	No	-$15	08-03 09:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	2	$40	51	0	+51	Down	-$15	05-25 13:18
Will Chad Tracy be the next Red Sox manager?	2	$39	35	35	+0	Yes	+$0	07-28 06:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 16:45 UTC	14	$39	34	27	+7	Down	+$15	06-04 16:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-07 16:30 UTC	16	$38	75	0	+75	Up	-$13	06-07 16:30
Will Belit Onay win the next Hannover mayoral election?	4	$36	35	35	+0	Yes	$0	07-27 18:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 22:20 UTC	12	$36	29	27	+2	Down	+$16	06-04 22:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-07 16:15 UTC	15	$33	65	0	+65	Up	-$3	06-07 16:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 20:10 UTC	1	$32	33	0	+33	Down	+$1	08-15 20:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-07 16:20 UTC	16	$32	65	0	+65	Up	-$7	06-07 16:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 17:10 UTC	3	$31	89	17	+71	Up	-$9	06-20 17:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-08 07:35 UTC	16	$31	70	0	+70	Up	-$1	06-08 07:38
Will Rob Reiner – “The Bear” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series?	2	$30	51	51	+0	Yes	-$9	08-13 08:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 02:25:02	Nets vs. Celtics	Celtics	SELL	38	26¢	$10	0xffddce…
10-28 02:23:18	Nets vs. Celtics	Celtics	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x4375da…
10-24 04:05:56	Pelicans vs. Jazz	Pelicans	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x8691ee…
10-21 17:16:48	Will Yura Borisov win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	111	1¢	$1	0x3996a0…
10-17 16:12:39	Will Anthony Ippolito win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	111	0¢	$1	0x8a2bc0…
10-17 01:48:27	Raptors vs. Pistons	Raptors	SELL	6	14¢	$1	0x587836…
10-17 01:48:12	Raptors vs. Pistons	Raptors	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0xd00312…
10-17 01:48:12	Raptors vs. Pistons	Raptors	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0xb89c9f…
10-17 01:48:12	Raptors vs. Pistons	Raptors	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0x9452a1…
10-17 01:48:12	Raptors vs. Pistons	Raptors	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0x59138e…
10-17 01:48:11	Raptors vs. Pistons	Raptors	SELL	50	14¢	$7	0xcb9e91…
10-17 01:45:24	Raptors vs. Pistons	Raptors	BUY	76	7¢	$5	0x58aacc…
08-18 07:37:19	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0xc942ff…
08-18 03:25:36	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	70¢	$6	0x07aeb3…
08-17 23:19:01	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	69¢	$10	0x9a9536…
08-17 23:19:01	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x7de199…
08-17 23:19:01	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0x23cd91…
08-17 23:00:06	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	84	31¢	$26	0x23c491…
08-17 22:52:06	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	18	31¢	$6	0x175671…
08-17 21:23:37	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	69¢	$13	0x95f306…
08-17 15:36:16	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0x244e38…
08-17 15:36:06	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0x61213d…
08-17 10:58:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 10:55 UTC	Up	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x4533ca…
08-17 10:56:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 10:55 UTC	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x77c1ea…
08-16 20:52:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 20:50 UTC	Down	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x2b8c80…
08-16 20:48:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 20:45 UTC	Down	SELL	14	96¢	$13	0x949c66…
08-16 20:47:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 20:45 UTC	Down	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x1cffe8…
08-16 16:48:31	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	10¢	$8	0x4ac4f7…
08-16 11:48:33	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	10¢	$2	0xedbc1d…
08-16 04:16:37	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	102	90¢	$92	0x3aa624…
08-15 20:13:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 20:10 UTC	Down	BUY	33	98¢	$32	0x097210…
08-15 20:07:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 20:05 UTC	Down	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x1db92f…
08-15 02:08:27	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x65884c…
08-14 22:55:22	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x85711c…
08-14 22:30:07	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	9¢	$3	0x53ec3a…
08-13 08:49:30	Will Rob Reiner – “The Bear” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series?	Yes	SELL	51	21¢	$11	0x33aa36…
08-13 08:49:07	Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $518,000 and $524,000 on September 30?	No	SELL	51	59¢	$30	0x113def…
08-13 03:18:49	Will Rob Reiner – “The Bear” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series?	Yes	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0x7c2a80…
08-12 04:31:27	Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $518,000 and $524,000 on September 30?	No	BUY	51	71¢	$36	0x6a88f6…
08-08 20:39:34	Will Robert Pattinson win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	76	9¢	$7	0x4fc674…
08-08 20:38:40	Will Robert Pattinson win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x18438f…
08-08 20:38:28	Will Robert Pattinson win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x4ccb2e…
08-08 20:30:54	Will Robert Pattinson win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xa1ea37…
08-08 09:12:18	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	17	73¢	$12	0xdf077c…
08-08 09:09:21	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	17	73¢	$12	0x4fa9bb…
08-08 09:08:24	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	26¢	$13	0xa21451…
08-08 09:07:25	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	15¢	$2	0x46ed19…
08-08 01:12:24	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	19¢	$7	0xb9ebd2…
08-07 22:35:58	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	26¢	$2	0xd67c98…
08-07 22:35:58	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	26¢	$12	0xa5bf97…
08-07 22:35:55	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	37	73¢	$27	0x10db8e…
08-07 22:20:58	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	73¢	$3	0x0f8829…
08-07 21:39:40	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x38dc9d…
08-07 21:31:37	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0xd38436…
08-07 17:19:10	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	51	75¢	$38	0x65ac71…
08-07 08:35:37	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	51	76¢	$39	0xfe028a…
08-07 05:33:37	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	51	12¢	$6	0xf7e8eb…
08-07 02:39:16	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	51	19¢	$10	0xd41984…
08-07 00:01:05	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	51	77¢	$39	0x58b872…
08-06 22:05:47	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	22¢	$11	0xf62e7c…
08-05 13:38:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 13:35 UTC	Up	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0xe288e0…
08-04 03:52:20	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	51	11¢	$6	0xc2bb40…
08-03 21:05:02	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	51	26¢	$13	0x45c8ef…
08-03 09:56:44	Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?	Yes	SELL	16	64¢	$10	0x0d11ac…
08-03 09:55:59	Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?	Yes	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0x53a7d3…
08-03 09:55:15	Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?	Yes	SELL	24	65¢	$16	0x35a1eb…
08-03 09:53:26	Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	51	27¢	$14	0x76293e…
08-03 09:13:42	Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?	Yes	BUY	30	72¢	$22	0x5081ba…
08-03 09:13:35	Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?	Yes	BUY	30	72¢	$22	0x1ed897…
08-03 09:05:45	Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	51	57¢	$29	0x4e9593…
08-02 06:35:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x9dd9ab…
08-01 18:52:00	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x2156f1…
08-01 18:50:08	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%?	No	SELL	51	55¢	$28	0xd3bf3c…
08-01 17:10:27	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%?	No	BUY	51	71¢	$36	0x1dd606…
08-01 12:37:29	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	51	38¢	$19	0xeb0063…
08-01 08:24:30	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x8d8dde…
08-01 06:07:51	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xf69695…
08-01 02:09:41	Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?	No	BUY	51	37¢	$19	0xcfbc1d…
08-01 00:08:57	Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?	Yes	BUY	51	64¢	$33	0x21925f…
07-31 20:13:42	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	11	63¢	$7	0x2d62a8…
07-31 20:13:41	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x802ad1…
07-31 20:03:23	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x1210ed…
07-31 19:06:57	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x6bcbd4…
07-31 19:06:30	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x54992c…
07-30 13:47:30	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x411ed1…
07-30 13:46:39	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xcf8b40…
07-30 13:46:02	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x0c938a…
07-30 13:45:00	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x14f6f2…
07-30 13:44:14	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xffba10…
07-30 13:43:06	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xf90ae7…
07-30 13:42:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xea7499…
07-30 06:36:53	Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?	Yes	SELL	140	16¢	$22	0xe25653…
07-29 23:28:08	Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?	Yes	BUY	140	37¢	$52	0x38527a…
07-29 18:48:59	Will Jaafar Jackson win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	11	0¢	$0	0x8a7e37…
07-29 18:48:51	Will Jaafar Jackson win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xa5792d…
07-29 18:48:39	Will Sam Rockwell win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	111	0¢	$0	0xb1aa37…
07-29 18:48:29	Will Brad Pitt win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	45	0¢	$0	0x60214a…
07-29 18:48:05	Will Brad Pitt win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	66	0¢	$0	0xe8eac9…
07-29 18:47:53	Will Javier Bardem win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	45	0¢	$0	0x9b278e…
07-29 18:47:45	Will Javier Bardem win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	66	0¢	$0	0x0a9572…