Thin-Safety — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$28

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

88.3%

Resolved

Trades

433

lifetime

Volume

$1.03K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-09

last 06-10 13:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

82% 75% $-2

Other

9% — —

Sports

7% 100% +$30

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Politics

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 146 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Justin Bieber release an album in 2026?	No		-10	$-5	69¢	$-7	$-2	06-10 13:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	5	$58	75	75	+0	Sean Strickland	+$30	05-10 04:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	3	$45	41	5	+35	Down	+$0	05-11 10:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	6	$42	25	25	+0	open	—	05-22 17:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	6	$37	23	23	+0	open	—	05-22 16:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	6	$36	20	20	+0	open	—	05-22 15:56
Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	5	$28	19	19	+0	open	—	05-22 15:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	12	$27	16	16	+0	open	—	05-18 15:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	10	$25	22	22	+0	open	—	05-18 15:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	6	$25	14	14	+0	open	—	06-01 19:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	11	$24	17	16	+0	open	—	05-19 02:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	2	$21	17	17	+0	open	—	05-22 17:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	3	$21	11	15	-5	open	—	05-22 17:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	5	$21	13	13	+0	Up	+$1	05-14 04:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	2	$20	13	13	+0	open	—	05-22 17:20
Will "Six Seven" be said on ICEMAN?	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	05-13 12:33
will the invite score at least 85 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	1	$20	23	0	+23	open	—	06-09 18:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	12	$18	18	9	+8	Down	$-4	05-11 10:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	7	$16	10	10	+0	Up	+$0	05-14 04:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	8	$15	10	10	+0	open	—	05-22 14:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	7	$14	212	7	+205	open	—	05-22 15:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	7	$14	10	10	+0	open	—	05-18 15:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	6	$13	9	9	+0	open	—	05-22 16:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	6	$13	10	10	+0	open	—	05-24 08:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	10	$13	12	8	+4	open	—	05-22 14:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	6	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	05-22 15:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	10	$12	9	7	+2	open	—	05-22 15:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	1	$12	0	12	-12	open	—	05-22 17:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	9	$10	8	8	+0	open	—	05-22 14:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	4	$10	7	5	+2	open	—	05-22 15:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	4	$10	8	4	+5	open	—	05-18 16:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 21:17:25	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Ilia Topuria	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0xfcd252…
06-11 21:15:13	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Alex Pereira	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x91af43…
06-10 13:10:37	Will Justin Bieber release an album in 2026?	No	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0x4ea7bc…
06-09 18:25:33	will the invite score at least 85 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x9e3bdf…
06-02 17:33:33	Will Trump say "Six Seven" in June?	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0xb9560e…
06-02 17:26:21	Will Trump say "Six Seven" in June?	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xa18975…
06-02 17:20:43	Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x56b071…
06-01 21:51:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	SELL	2	38¢	$1	0x682499…
06-01 21:50:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0x99fd32…
06-01 21:50:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x473df2…
06-01 21:50:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x49e5b4…
06-01 21:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	2	25¢	$0	0xbecfd2…
06-01 21:46:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xb041e2…
06-01 21:46:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0x2f1bc3…
06-01 21:45:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xb34acb…
06-01 21:43:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	3	89¢	$2	0x4b6de7…
06-01 21:41:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xdc7dd3…
06-01 19:53:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0x76a7d2…
06-01 19:52:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xb85c9a…
06-01 19:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0x5743e0…
06-01 19:49:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x1be543…
06-01 19:49:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x1fea95…
06-01 19:47:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x2c79be…
05-31 21:56:40	UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	Max Holloway	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0xe2f04a…
05-31 21:50:01	Will "Pressure" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x63e8ac…
05-31 17:14:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xd36a13…
05-31 17:14:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x849280…
05-31 17:14:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x348593…
05-31 17:09:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xec6d07…
05-30 16:51:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x01c1d3…
05-30 16:49:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xc6cae4…
05-30 16:48:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xc19c50…
05-30 16:48:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x633268…
05-30 16:44:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdf0ed8…
05-30 16:44:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x37dfb6…
05-30 16:44:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x685dc8…
05-30 16:44:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x0e69d5…
05-30 16:44:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x22ac90…
05-27 22:40:23	Will "Pressure" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x459bcc…
05-27 22:40:09	Will "Backrooms" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0xa5a2ab…
05-27 22:27:03	Will "Backrooms" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xe5aa5f…
05-27 22:26:49	Will "Backrooms" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	6	13¢	$1	0x4ab7a3…
05-27 22:26:38	Will "Backrooms" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	34	1¢	$0	0xe85e70…
05-27 21:55:14	Will "Backrooms" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xbd08cd…
05-27 21:54:18	Will "Backrooms" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x60b25d…
05-27 09:21:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0x53b484…
05-27 09:20:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xb861a2…
05-27 09:17:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0x844798…
05-27 09:17:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x55c77f…
05-27 09:16:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x9b6ca3…
05-27 09:15:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0xaf08bd…
05-27 09:15:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x57c87e…
05-27 09:06:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x815dd9…
05-27 09:05:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xdf3ebd…
05-27 09:05:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xa0f661…
05-27 09:04:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x83fbbc…
05-27 09:02:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xd06849…
05-27 09:02:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x0155b3…
05-24 09:02:39	UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Song Yadong	BUY	9	81¢	$8	0x9188d7…
05-24 08:55:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xbc809f…
05-24 08:53:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x507735…
05-24 08:53:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xe59895…
05-24 08:52:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x56d15d…
05-24 08:52:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xaefdea…
05-24 08:52:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x10e319…
05-24 08:41:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	SELL	3	62¢	$2	0xb25c49…
05-24 08:41:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x459f30…
05-24 08:40:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xc2000b…
05-24 08:38:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0xf7c996…
05-24 08:37:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x8f47d8…
05-24 08:37:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xbeee51…
05-24 08:34:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa4735a…
05-24 08:33:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x3a24ea…
05-22 17:53:13	Will "I Love Boosters" score at least 91 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	3	92¢	$2	0xa1f579…
05-22 17:40:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	SELL	12	83¢	$10	0x0d44e1…
05-22 17:39:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x10374b…
05-22 17:39:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0xf47b55…
05-22 17:38:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x46a305…
05-22 17:38:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	SELL	7	56¢	$4	0x7ad657…
05-22 17:37:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xe82956…
05-22 17:36:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	SELL	12	86¢	$10	0x15baa5…
05-22 17:35:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x1394a1…
05-22 17:34:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x0a057f…
05-22 17:33:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xdadf58…
05-22 17:32:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0x607fd6…
05-22 17:25:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x64c102…
05-22 17:21:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	SELL	17	67¢	$11	0x955fc1…
05-22 17:21:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xc200c2…
05-22 17:20:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	SELL	13	77¢	$10	0xa9ee00…
05-22 17:20:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x12845a…
05-22 17:19:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0xe808b4…
05-22 17:18:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x7a8708…
05-22 17:17:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x27d5f8…
05-22 17:14:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xb89aa9…
05-22 17:14:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x479879…
05-22 17:07:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x968f98…
05-22 17:06:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x9e937e…
05-22 16:07:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0x23653e…
05-22 16:07:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xf3d00a…
05-22 16:07:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	SELL	3	82¢	$2	0x1ae14a…