Apprehensive-Instinct — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$651

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

34.0%

Resolved

9,567

Trades

18,405

lifetime

Volume

$7.98K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-05

last 10-27 11:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 137 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 9% -$442

Tech

2% 0% -$157

Politics

1% 11% -$52

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 373 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	—	+113	$1	2¢	$2	+$1	10-27 12:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
gpt 5pt4 released by march 5	5	$157	802	0	+802	Yes	-$157	03-05 15:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	10	$39	45	0	+45	Down	-$39	05-10 04:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	10	$34	39	0	+39	Down	-$34	05-11 00:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	10	$33	38	0	+38	Up	+$5	05-10 22:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	10	$32	37	0	+37	Up	+$5	05-02 21:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	9	$31	35	0	+35	Up	+$3	05-02 21:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	10	$31	34	0	+34	Up	+$3	05-10 20:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	10	$31	34	0	+34	Up	+$3	05-10 22:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	10	$31	35	0	+35	Up	+$4	05-02 17:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	10	$30	34	0	+34	Up	+$4	05-02 18:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	10	$29	33	0	+33	Up	+$4	05-10 19:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	10	$29	32	0	+32	Up	+$4	05-02 13:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	7	$28	32	0	+32	Down	-$28	05-02 21:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	10	$28	30	0	+30	Up	+$3	05-10 14:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	10	$26	29	0	+29	Up	+$3	05-10 09:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	10	$26	30	0	+30	Up	+$4	05-02 13:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	10	$26	29	0	+29	Down	-$26	05-02 22:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	10	$25	28	0	+28	Up	+$3	05-10 08:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	10	$25	29	0	+29	Up	+$4	05-03 20:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	10	$24	28	0	+28	Up	+$4	05-02 12:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	10	$24	28	0	+28	Up	+$4	05-10 05:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	10	$23	27	0	+27	Up	+$3	05-02 11:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	8	$22	24	0	+24	Up	+$2	05-03 22:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	8	$22	25	0	+25	Up	+$3	05-03 21:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	10	$22	24	0	+24	Up	+$3	05-12 04:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	10	$21	24	0	+24	Down	-$21	05-15 06:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	10	$21	25	0	+25	Up	+$4	05-03 17:06
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?	3	$21	134	134	+0	Yes	+$1	06-03 11:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	10	$21	23	0	+23	Up	+$2	05-11 13:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	10	$21	23	0	+23	Down	-$21	05-04 01:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 12:33:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	74	1¢	$1	0x89526a…
10-27 12:33:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	38	1¢	$0	0xeff719…
10-27 12:27:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0xe2f97c…
10-27 12:27:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xd4f482…
10-27 12:27:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	22	1¢	$0	0x71f076…
10-27 12:27:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x3c7e5e…
10-27 12:27:57	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xdbd29d…
10-27 12:27:57	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x25e1c8…
10-27 11:08:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	98	1¢	$1	0xea6462…
10-27 11:08:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xd22323…
10-27 11:08:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x3b0f58…
10-27 10:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xabb8e9…
10-27 10:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x99108d…
10-27 10:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	23	1¢	$0	0x6284c5…
10-27 10:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	16	1¢	$0	0x58c31f…
10-27 10:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x447134…
10-27 10:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x15fd12…
10-27 10:43:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	48	1¢	$0	0xbe3b7b…
10-27 10:43:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x5d1f4f…
10-27 10:33:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	89	1¢	$1	0x908eb5…
10-27 10:33:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x587283…
10-27 10:33:48	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xd4a8bc…
10-27 10:33:48	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x8749c3…
10-27 10:33:48	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x52a796…
10-27 10:23:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	81	1¢	$1	0x69a6d8…
10-27 10:23:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	34	1¢	$0	0x61ce90…
10-27 09:58:38	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xaad2fe…
10-27 09:58:38	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xa63959…
10-27 09:58:38	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xa0e15b…
10-27 09:58:38	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x4a1f9e…
10-27 09:58:38	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x211ade…
10-27 09:58:38	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x1993a1…
10-27 09:58:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0x2f1188…
10-27 09:58:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x0ae478…
10-27 09:58:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x87d0b9…
10-27 09:53:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	115	1¢	$1	0x815f59…
10-27 08:02:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	26	1¢	$0	0xcfb4f1…
10-27 08:02:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	56	1¢	$1	0xb621b4…
10-27 08:02:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x760556…
10-27 08:02:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0x6c979c…
10-27 08:02:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x1492e3…
10-27 07:23:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xe74901…
10-27 07:23:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0xe698ed…
10-27 07:23:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x413326…
10-27 07:23:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x3f745b…
10-27 07:23:57	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xd3463b…
10-27 07:23:57	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x791e7e…
10-27 07:23:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	32	1¢	$0	0x40161c…
10-27 07:23:54	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x7abbf1…
10-27 07:13:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	116	1¢	$1	0xa4b4db…
10-27 06:59:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	45	1¢	$0	0x4eec7a…
10-27 05:59:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x5bd2f0…
10-27 05:59:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x4bdde3…
10-27 05:59:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x423b67…
10-27 05:58:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x0505c4…
10-27 05:58:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x032bbf…
10-27 05:58:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x024954…
10-27 05:58:57	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xd83489…
10-27 05:58:54	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x1a9f7f…
10-27 05:58:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x96cb72…
10-27 05:33:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	116	1¢	$1	0x973b11…
10-27 05:19:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	117	1¢	$1	0xd32151…
10-27 04:13:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xe6d097…
10-27 04:13:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	16	1¢	$0	0xcc6ac9…
10-27 04:13:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xcbf7b1…
10-27 04:13:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x3418c2…
10-27 04:13:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x1166ba…
10-27 04:13:47	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x96b204…
10-27 04:13:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	29	1¢	$0	0x879c05…
10-27 03:38:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	117	1¢	$1	0xdcf0f7…
10-27 03:18:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	117	1¢	$1	0x892d56…
10-27 02:43:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	118	1¢	$1	0x3410da…
10-27 02:38:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	118	1¢	$1	0xfbfc11…
10-27 02:33:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	18	1¢	$0	0x85e3ab…
10-27 02:33:32	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x67306b…
10-27 02:33:32	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	85	1¢	$1	0x60391c…
10-27 02:33:32	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x170fa0…
10-27 01:43:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	119	1¢	$1	0xe924bb…
10-27 01:13:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	119	1¢	$1	0x6d02dd…
10-27 01:08:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x7c8b81…
10-27 01:08:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x12d2ac…
10-27 01:08:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x10d9c3…
10-27 01:08:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0x7fd275…
10-27 00:54:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	120	1¢	$1	0x9ced6d…
10-27 00:13:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xe23c76…
10-27 00:13:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xa08434…
10-27 00:13:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0x6cbdcc…
10-27 00:13:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x56930b…
10-27 00:13:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x71affd…
10-27 00:13:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	25	1¢	$0	0x094238…
10-27 00:08:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0x4b710b…
10-27 00:03:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	57	1¢	$1	0xc633a4…
10-27 00:03:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	64	1¢	$1	0x7db820…
10-26 23:38:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	121	1¢	$1	0x58c7bf…
10-26 23:18:51	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x7a6bbf…
10-26 23:18:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xb9860c…
10-26 23:18:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	121	1¢	$1	0x19c1c1…
10-26 22:59:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	23	1¢	$0	0x6f9350…
10-26 22:59:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xa784a6…
10-26 22:58:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xd4206d…