Confused-Manager — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.1%

Resolved

Trades

374

lifetime

Volume

$558

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-07

last 05-16 20:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

96% 57% +$6

Other

3% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
xrp updown 5m 1776496500	3	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	04-18 07:20
btc updown 5m 1775662800	2	$10	9	8	+0	open	—	04-08 15:45
btc updown 5m 1775664300	2	$9	8	8	+0	open	—	04-08 16:10
btc updown 5m 1775921700	2	$9	6	6	+0	open	—	04-11 15:40
btc updown 5m 1775916900	3	$8	6	6	+0	open	—	04-11 14:19
btc updown 5m 1775672700	2	$8	6	6	+0	open	—	04-08 18:30
btc updown 5m 1775849400	3	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	04-10 19:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	3	$6	8	4	+4	Down	+$2	05-13 05:43
eth updown 5m 1775591700	2	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	04-07 20:00
btc updown 5m 1775730900	2	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	04-09 10:40
btc updown 5m 1775920200	2	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	04-11 15:16
btc updown 5m 1776005700	2	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	04-12 15:01
btc updown 5m 1775657100	2	$5	5	4	+0	open	—	04-08 14:10
btc updown 5m 1775721300	2	$5	5	4	+0	open	—	04-09 08:01
btc updown 5m 1775997300	2	$5	4	4	+0	open	—	04-12 12:36
btc updown 5m 1775922900	2	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	04-11 16:00
btc updown 5m 1776006000	2	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	04-12 15:00
eth updown 5m 1776498900	4	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	04-18 07:56
btc updown 5m 1775732100	2	$5	5	4	+0	open	—	04-09 10:58
btc updown 5m 1775926200	2	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	04-11 16:55
btc updown 5m 1776708000	4	$5	4	4	+0	open	—	04-20 18:06
xrp updown 5m 1776493500	2	$5	4	4	+0	open	—	04-18 06:26
eth updown 5m 1776499800	2	$4	6	5	+0	open	—	04-18 08:12
euroleague kaunas dubai 2026 04 07	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	04-07 18:56
btc updown 5m 1775734500	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	04-09 11:40
btc updown 5m 1775843700	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	04-10 18:00
btc updown 5m 1775663400	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	04-08 15:56
btc updown 5m 1776005400	1	$4	8	0	+8	open	—	04-12 14:48
btc updown 5m 1776006300	2	$4	10	0	+10	open	—	04-12 15:06
eth updown 5m 1776500100	2	$4	7	0	+7	open	—	04-18 08:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-16 20:26:59	Will Poland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xb52bb6…
05-16 20:03:35	Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x3d2a70…
05-16 20:02:13	Will Serbia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0xb97dab…
05-16 19:09:53	Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x888a2c…
05-16 19:07:14	Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xf5cfab…
05-16 10:00:43	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x2c0362…
05-16 09:59:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0x837658…
05-16 09:51:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xa58123…
05-16 09:47:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x164764…
05-16 09:40:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x9c97d5…
05-16 09:31:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x972d64…
05-16 09:21:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x7356ea…
05-16 09:18:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x293c1e…
05-15 18:32:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x2005b5…
05-15 16:57:03	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1866d9…
05-15 16:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xc18369…
05-15 04:16:54	Will Drake feature Metro Boomin on ICEMAN?	Yes	SELL	26	0¢	$0	0x06953b…
05-14 20:27:33	Will Drake feature Metro Boomin on ICEMAN?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x2c8327…
05-14 20:26:58	Will Drake feature Morgan Wallen on ICEMAN?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xcb1d3b…
05-14 20:25:43	Will "Kanye" be said on ICEMAN?	Yes	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0xebe69b…
05-14 20:25:12	Will "LeBron" or "Bronny" be said on ICEMAN?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x2c746c…
05-14 19:50:19	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0xcf79b6…
05-14 19:40:10	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	36¢	$0	0xc7f78e…
05-14 19:40:10	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	36¢	$0	0xaa6946…
05-14 19:40:10	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x88d16a…
05-14 19:40:10	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x2de6a9…
05-14 19:31:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x19a9c2…
05-14 19:28:59	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xf5ff0e…
05-14 19:20:07	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xd795c7…
05-14 19:20:07	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x9faf8d…
05-14 19:20:07	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x2b943b…
05-14 19:10:25	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xee00f2…
05-14 19:05:10	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	0	36¢	$0	0xe1af3f…
05-14 19:05:10	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x6f3ba6…
05-14 19:05:10	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x204a03…
05-14 19:05:08	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x2aba66…
05-14 19:00:10	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x74b03e…
05-14 19:00:05	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	0	36¢	$0	0xf06258…
05-14 18:42:04	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x0645e2…
05-14 18:41:41	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xe8aa7b…
05-14 18:41:02	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc02052…
05-14 18:34:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x573cb9…
05-14 18:16:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x4ddaa2…
05-14 18:06:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0xfaed4f…
05-14 18:00:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xbd0a82…
05-14 17:49:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x28b309…
05-13 19:24:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x45e805…
05-13 19:07:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x978dc9…
05-13 19:07:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x085a6b…
05-13 19:07:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xaf4d45…
05-13 18:29:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xc364f7…
05-13 18:29:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x04c5b1…
05-13 17:40:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x40ab8c…
05-13 17:37:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x99bc0e…
05-13 17:22:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x0b8b7a…
05-13 17:22:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xcfd001…
05-13 16:50:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x40de84…
05-13 16:50:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x85d3b4…
05-13 16:15:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x98b845…
05-13 16:01:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x653b54…
05-13 16:00:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xf56004…
05-13 15:31:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x005bc9…
05-13 07:19:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xb82f3e…
05-13 07:18:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x120ed4…
05-13 07:16:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x3a314d…
05-13 07:00:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xb6c2a7…
05-13 06:57:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x820788…
05-13 06:39:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xa154f4…
05-13 06:14:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	31¢	$1	0xe0c7d4…
05-13 06:05:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x9a5cda…
05-13 05:57:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xf6c4da…
05-13 05:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x8e87d9…
05-13 05:43:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x4c3eb4…
05-13 05:43:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x05c7f2…
05-13 05:35:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe9eb71…
05-13 05:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x009428…
05-13 05:13:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x04bfee…
05-13 04:38:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x0b442f…
05-13 04:36:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x4fa452…
05-13 04:36:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xdcd693…
05-13 04:36:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x07dd01…
05-12 21:01:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x822037…
05-12 20:40:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xe89eea…
05-03 13:10:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$1	0x1939d7…
05-03 13:03:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	SELL	4	14¢	$1	0x723c69…
05-03 12:57:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x213817…
05-03 12:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x24036e…
05-03 12:37:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x431d75…
05-03 11:24:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x595a0d…
05-03 11:20:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xe3502c…
05-03 10:32:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x367b33…
05-03 10:19:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x7e8dff…
05-03 10:10:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x5de551…
05-03 10:04:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x90e923…
05-03 09:52:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x20dafe…
05-03 09:41:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x322ffc…
05-03 09:27:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x8402be…
05-03 09:12:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x193e2c…
05-03 09:04:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x14c904…
05-03 08:51:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x0f3ca9…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	246	$163.8K	10,300	05-16 10:09
(anonymous) 0x20d2…e29d	241	$39.7K	1,928	05-15 18:36
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	231	$147.7K	5,669	05-16 09:59
(anonymous) 0xd901…8e14	225	$62.4K	18,970	05-16 09:59
(anonymous) 0x424e…263b	225	$54.8K	11,238	05-16 09:59
(anonymous) 0xba67…4727	225	$46.2K	8,199	05-16 09:59
(anonymous) 0x8852…c569	221	$34.7K	4,108	05-16 09:59
(anonymous) 0x48ac…4a7e	220	$50.0K	17,053	05-16 09:59