Confused-Manager — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$43

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

51.0%

Resolved

330

Trades

444

lifetime

Volume

$663

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-07

last 06-28 13:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 34 days

Categories

Crypto

85% 43% -$23

Other

11% 16% -$8

Sports

2% 14% -$3

Pop-Culture

1% 0% -$7

Politics

0% 0% -$2

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-28).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	3	$16	13	13	+0	Yes	+$10	06-15 21:25
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 07:15 UTC	3	$11	7	7	+0	Down	+$3	04-18 07:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-08 15:40 UTC	2	$10	9	8	+0	Down	+$7	04-08 15:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-08 16:05 UTC	2	$9	8	8	+0	Down	+$6	04-08 16:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 15:35 UTC	2	$9	6	6	+0	Up	+$3	04-11 15:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 14:15 UTC	3	$8	6	6	+0	Up	+$3	04-11 14:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-08 18:25 UTC	2	$8	6	6	+0	Down	+$4	04-08 18:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 19:30 UTC	3	$7	5	5	+0	Up	+$3	04-10 19:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	3	$6	8	4	+4	Down	+$2	05-13 05:43
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 19:55 UTC	2	$6	5	5	+0	Up	+$4	04-07 20:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 10:35 UTC	2	$6	5	5	+0	Up	+$4	04-09 10:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 15:10 UTC	2	$6	4	4	+0	Up	+$2	04-11 15:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 14:55 UTC	2	$5	3	3	+0	Up	+$1	04-12 15:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 07:55 UTC	2	$5	5	4	+0	Down	+$4	04-09 08:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-08 14:05 UTC	2	$5	5	4	+0	Down	+$4	04-08 14:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 12:35 UTC	2	$5	4	4	+0	Up	+$1	04-12 12:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 15:55 UTC	2	$5	3	3	+0	Up	+$1	04-11 16:00
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 07:55 UTC	4	$5	10	0	+10	Down	-$5	04-18 07:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 15:00 UTC	2	$5	9	0	+9	Up	+$4	04-12 15:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 10:55 UTC	2	$5	5	4	+0	Down	+$3	04-09 10:58
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	3	$5	24	24	+0	No	-$3	06-19 19:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 16:50 UTC	2	$5	3	3	+0	Down	+$1	04-11 16:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 18:00 UTC	4	$5	4	4	+0	Up	+$1	04-20 18:06
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 06:25 UTC	2	$5	4	4	+0	Up	+$1	04-18 06:26
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 08:10 UTC	2	$4	6	5	+0	Down	-$2	04-18 08:12
euroleague kaunas dubai 2026 04 07	2	$4	3	3	+0	BC Dubai	+$2	04-07 18:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 11:35 UTC	2	$4	3	3	+0	Up	+$2	04-09 11:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 08:55 UTC	3	$4	8	2	+6	Up	+$3	06-22 08:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-08 15:50 UTC	2	$4	3	3	+0	Up	+$2	04-08 15:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 17:55 UTC	2	$4	3	3	+0	Up	+$2	04-10 18:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-28 13:14:25	Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x90cb23…
06-28 13:14:22	Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x5531f3…
06-28 08:29:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 08:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x555b78…
06-28 08:21:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 08:25 UTC	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc097f6…
06-28 08:12:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 08:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x7b69b9…
06-28 08:03:44	Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	Yes	SELL	6	40¢	$2	0x326c0b…
06-28 08:03:35	Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	Yes	SELL	6	12¢	$1	0xbe8c36…
06-27 15:12:22	Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x31a0ee…
06-27 15:12:01	f1 austrian grand prix driver podium antonelli 2026 06 28	No	SELL	4	16¢	$1	0x2e6022…
06-27 14:25:05	f1 austrian grand prix driver podium antonelli 2026 06 28	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xd66e9a…
06-27 14:23:17	Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x769253…
06-27 14:23:14	Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xdbdf46…
06-27 14:22:04	Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	Yes	SELL	8	9¢	$1	0xdcdbb0…
06-27 14:21:07	Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x5b5d44…
06-22 10:18:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 10:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x938dbf…
06-22 09:43:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x86c779…
06-22 09:31:35	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 09:35 UTC	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x75ccd1…
06-22 09:25:28	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 09:25 UTC	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x9dc038…
06-22 09:05:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 09:05 UTC	Up	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0x94180d…
06-22 08:56:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x741356…
06-22 08:55:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 08:55 UTC	Down	SELL	2	38¢	$1	0xc80251…
06-22 08:54:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 08:55 UTC	Up	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0x461449…
06-22 08:54:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 08:55 UTC	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x0d83e4…
06-22 08:45:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 08:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x0b30cb…
06-22 08:33:28	Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x9d1540…
06-21 11:09:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 11:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x706128…
06-21 10:56:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 11:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x24c2ee…
06-21 10:45:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xcfb9c6…
06-21 10:45:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	4	36¢	$1	0xb4df0c…
06-21 10:38:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 10:40 UTC	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x189ccd…
06-21 10:27:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 10:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xd013bc…
06-21 06:14:16	Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xde45ee…
06-21 06:14:02	Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x449026…
06-21 06:13:32	Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x93c878…
06-20 18:21:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 18:25 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x844557…
06-20 18:20:22	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	SELL	7	13¢	$1	0x6e720e…
06-20 18:19:43	Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	11	8¢	$1	0xf82b07…
06-20 15:27:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 15:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x7087d0…
06-20 15:27:29	Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x0ec298…
06-20 15:27:13	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x449797…
06-20 15:27:07	Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x498fc0…
06-20 15:27:04	Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x294e3b…
06-20 15:26:52	Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0xe62e98…
06-19 19:48:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 19:50 UTC	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xdd40f2…
06-19 19:46:13	Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	24	4¢	$1	0x6cad81…
06-19 19:33:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 19:35 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x4bfd2a…
06-19 19:30:31	Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0xbadc37…
06-19 19:08:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 19:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x46405b…
06-19 11:05:08	Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xc11c86…
06-19 11:04:58	Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xece172…
06-19 11:04:50	Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x21d34c…
06-16 19:42:22	Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal?	Yes	BUY	19	11¢	$2	0x5fc012…
06-16 19:42:08	Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal?	Yes	BUY	13	16¢	$2	0x0483b4…
06-16 19:41:17	Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xc7565a…
06-16 08:14:01	Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0x6295e2…
06-15 21:25:52	Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xa96923…
06-15 21:25:12	Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x55952e…
06-15 18:33:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-15 18:35 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x926e22…
06-15 18:27:48	Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x980423…
06-15 18:02:46	Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xbce9c0…
06-15 17:14:07	Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	45	4¢	$2	0x56943e…
06-15 17:08:30	Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x39f297…
05-16 20:27:56	Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xf80205…
05-16 20:26:59	Will Poland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xb52bb6…
05-16 20:07:14	Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x1016a0…
05-16 20:03:35	Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x3d2a70…
05-16 20:02:50	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k?	Yes	SELL	5	9¢	$1	0xda18df…
05-16 20:02:13	Will Serbia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0xb97dab…
05-16 19:09:53	Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x888a2c…
05-16 19:07:14	Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xf5cfab…
05-16 19:06:48	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x8a84e5…
05-16 10:00:43	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x2c0362…
05-16 09:59:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0x837658…
05-16 09:51:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xa58123…
05-16 09:47:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x164764…
05-16 09:40:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x9c97d5…
05-16 09:31:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x972d64…
05-16 09:21:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x7356ea…
05-16 09:18:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x293c1e…
05-15 18:32:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x2005b5…
05-15 16:57:03	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1866d9…
05-15 16:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xc18369…
05-15 08:16:03	Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?	Yes	SELL	14	13¢	$2	0x52d402…
05-15 04:16:54	Will Drake feature Metro Boomin on ICEMAN?	Yes	SELL	26	0¢	$0	0x06953b…
05-14 20:27:33	Will Drake feature Metro Boomin on ICEMAN?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x2c8327…
05-14 20:26:58	Will Drake feature Morgan Wallen on ICEMAN?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xcb1d3b…
05-14 20:25:43	Will "Kanye" be said on ICEMAN?	Yes	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0xebe69b…
05-14 20:25:12	Will "LeBron" or "Bronny" be said on ICEMAN?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x2c746c…
05-14 20:23:32	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xfa6868…
05-14 19:50:19	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0xcf79b6…
05-14 19:40:10	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	36¢	$0	0xc7f78e…
05-14 19:40:10	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	36¢	$0	0xaa6946…
05-14 19:40:10	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x88d16a…
05-14 19:40:10	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x2de6a9…
05-14 19:31:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x19a9c2…
05-14 19:28:59	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xf5ff0e…
05-14 19:20:07	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xd795c7…
05-14 19:20:07	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x9faf8d…
05-14 19:20:07	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x2b943b…
05-14 19:10:25	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xee00f2…