Agonizing-Notoriety — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

64.1%

Resolved

120

Trades

285

lifetime

Volume

$1.16K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-20

last 06-28 15:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

80% 70% $-10

Other

15% 0% $-4

Politics

4% 50% +$25

Tech

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 150 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No		+8	$5	72¢	$5	+$0	06-28 15:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	7	$78	70	59	+10	Down	$-2	05-11 07:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	6	$66	76	76	+0	Up	+$26	05-11 07:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	5	$56	77	77	+0	Down	$-54	05-11 05:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	4	$55	57	0	+57	Down	+$2	05-11 05:39
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	5	$53	31	31	+0	open	—	05-13 09:47
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	3	$42	39	10	+28	open	—	05-27 16:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	8	$40	47	0	+47	Down	+$7	05-10 20:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	5	$34	53	19	+34	Up	+$8	05-11 05:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	3	$34	40	21	+19	Down	$-6	05-10 21:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	2	$30	39	0	+39	Down	+$9	05-10 20:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	2	$30	34	0	+34	Up	+$4	05-10 19:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	4	$30	28	19	+8	Down	$-0	05-11 10:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	5	$28	25	25	+0	open	—	05-11 14:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	3	$26	42	0	+42	Up	+$16	05-10 21:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$22	14	14	+0	open	—	05-13 09:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	4	$20	395	0	+395	Down	$-20	05-11 13:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	1	$20	27	0	+27	Up	+$7	05-10 20:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	6	$19	19	9	+10	Up	+$4	05-11 10:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	3	$17	18	0	+18	Up	+$1	05-10 20:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	2	$15	29	0	+29	Down	+$14	05-10 21:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	2	$15	29	0	+29	Up	$-15	05-11 05:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	3	$15	21	0	+21	Up	+$6	05-11 10:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	3	$15	19	0	+19	Up	+$4	05-11 10:28
will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	3	$13	18	11	+7	open	—	06-28 15:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$13	7	7	+0	open	—	05-04 17:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	2	$12	16	16	+0	Up	+$2	05-10 11:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	2	$11	15	0	+15	Down	+$4	05-10 18:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	3	$11	15	0	+15	Down	$-11	05-11 13:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	2	$11	14	0	+14	Up	+$3	05-10 19:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	9	$11	13	0	+13	Down	+$2	05-11 14:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-28 15:40:49	btc updown 5m 1782661200	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x461b82…
06-28 15:35:26	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xe7c430…
06-28 15:35:05	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	No	SELL	11	33¢	$3	0xbe6226…
06-28 15:29:05	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	No	BUY	11	48¢	$5	0x87bc38…
06-28 15:24:35	will russia capture lyman by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x7fea96…
06-28 15:22:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xe8d98a…
06-01 21:00:41	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x016c30…
05-27 16:21:48	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xea8c2f…
05-23 18:06:20	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x280cba…
05-20 14:20:58	Trump kiss by May 31?	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x7e655e…
05-14 13:12:32	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x9508fc…
05-13 09:55:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	85¢	$9	0x6eb5fc…
05-13 09:47:55	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	34	80¢	$27	0x12c494…
05-13 09:47:30	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	31	88¢	$27	0x62978d…
05-13 09:25:41	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x8abcf8…
05-13 09:20:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x6c339a…
05-13 09:20:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x88d3dd…
05-13 09:20:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x0b2b04…
05-13 09:17:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0x82e7ca…
05-13 09:16:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x9c4dad…
05-13 09:15:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xfbae01…
05-13 09:13:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xf65771…
05-13 09:11:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xbdc1f7…
05-13 09:11:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	SELL	3	43¢	$1	0xed7c75…
05-13 09:11:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x8821d0…
05-13 09:10:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	84¢	$3	0x4750fe…
05-13 09:07:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x03a30a…
05-13 09:06:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0xfe1aec…
05-13 09:05:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x7c6cf5…
05-12 16:38:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xc28768…
05-12 16:26:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xd263a5…
05-12 16:20:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x9e42c1…
05-12 16:12:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x4622cb…
05-12 16:07:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x984123…
05-12 16:07:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x72435f…
05-12 16:03:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x855bd7…
05-12 16:03:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd55a86…
05-12 16:02:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xb1dd4f…
05-12 15:56:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x5eb3fe…
05-12 15:53:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf2ad05…
05-12 15:52:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xbbad70…
05-12 15:47:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x6ce925…
05-12 15:42:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x72f9d9…
05-12 15:37:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x1a012b…
05-12 15:31:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x63db44…
05-12 15:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x9d58f2…
05-12 15:22:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x588f72…
05-12 15:18:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xcecf31…
05-12 15:11:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x8414a4…
05-12 15:09:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd82557…
05-12 14:36:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x63d1ed…
05-12 14:36:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	SELL	3	50¢	$1	0xb34845…
05-12 14:35:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xddf6e3…
05-12 14:31:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xad12e4…
05-12 14:27:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x273b4c…
05-12 14:26:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x63443a…
05-12 14:26:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x45de65…
05-12 07:46:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x9d95d1…
05-12 07:43:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x4adb25…
05-11 21:13:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x5fa6e8…
05-11 21:07:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf0b40e…
05-11 21:03:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x239d21…
05-11 20:57:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xd7df5a…
05-11 20:48:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x15d02b…
05-11 20:43:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3df597…
05-11 20:37:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x586b5a…
05-11 20:33:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xd7a599…
05-11 20:28:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x16a134…
05-11 20:23:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x3e3751…
05-11 20:18:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x5c5fb7…
05-11 20:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xea3070…
05-11 20:07:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xce25b1…
05-11 18:31:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xf2168c…
05-11 17:57:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xf0a29a…
05-11 17:56:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x5dc6e3…
05-11 17:54:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	4¢	$0	0xeea475…
05-11 17:50:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xc97700…
05-11 17:47:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x420df6…
05-11 17:46:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x8aa2c0…
05-11 17:38:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xd2ba72…
05-11 17:35:34	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x6d9725…
05-11 17:34:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x6bc574…
05-11 17:31:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x6ea9f6…
05-11 17:20:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x8dff4f…
05-11 17:17:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x776576…
05-11 17:16:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x020869…
05-11 17:10:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xded782…
05-11 17:08:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9d161d…
05-11 17:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xa5fab7…
05-11 16:58:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x9d370e…
05-11 14:44:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x0b00ce…
05-11 14:30:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xb14a16…
05-11 14:26:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xe0f2ad…
05-11 14:20:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x07fa67…
05-11 14:13:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xd1139d…
05-11 14:13:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xebaadf…
05-11 14:13:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x81ca6b…
05-11 14:13:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x0ec4fb…
05-11 14:13:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb141f2…
05-11 14:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7089f7…