Wary-Restaurant — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$21.9K

Unrealized P&L

-$9.95K

Hit rate

70.8%

Resolved

Trades

940

lifetime

Volume

$692.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$737

Open exposure

$34.0K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-23 20:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Politics

86% 76% +$113

Other

11% 38% -$5,363

Crypto

2% 0% -$16,750

Sports

1% 100% +$100

Tech

0% 100% +$24

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 41 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes		+128,449	$43,989	26¢	$34.0K	-$9,950	10-23 20:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	177	$65.5K	155,462	27,013	+128,449	open	—	10-23 20:54
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	5	$55.7K	38,983	17,688	+21,294	No	+$799	05-28 03:11
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	39	$50.3K	24,434	28,403	-3,969	No	+$1,555	05-26 04:01
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	26	$39.6K	20,193	20,193	+0	Yes	+$788	05-27 00:11
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	22	$35.4K	17,831	17,831	+0	No	-$45	05-28 02:59
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	19	$25.4K	16,188	16,188	+0	No	-$1,641	06-01 12:08
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	45	$23.3K	18,946	18,946	+0	No	-$1,636	05-29 18:02
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	46	$22.6K	13,440	12,940	+500	No	+$1,789	04-29 04:35
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	5	$22.3K	20,535	2,000	+18,535	No	+$246	05-27 04:35
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	5	$19.8K	12,127	12,127	+0	No	+$244	01-30 00:08
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	159	$19.4K	29,420	21,054	+8,367	Yes	-$14,082	04-27 18:15
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	2	$17.4K	18,639	0	+18,639	No	+$1,239	05-29 22:54
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	6	$16.9K	8,745	8,745	+0	No	+$481	05-25 01:28
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	4	$16.7K	22,545	0	+22,545	No	-$16,750	06-01 12:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	7	$16.1K	8,308	8,308	+0	No	+$217	05-22 22:06
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	11	$15.5K	20,817	0	+20,817	Yes	+$5,303	07-29 16:19
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	9	$13.9K	8,675	8,675	+0	No	+$1,564	05-25 08:31
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	8	$12.9K	12,712	12,712	+0	Yes	+$2,361	01-20 16:39
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	7	$11.7K	12,951	0	+12,951	No	+$1,224	05-28 17:49
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	9	$11.4K	6,053	6,053	+0	No	-$2	05-28 17:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	8	$11.2K	8,350	8,350	+0	No	-$368	05-29 05:46
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	2	$11.1K	5,870	5,870	+0	Yes	+$376	05-23 18:29
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	6	$10.7K	5,654	5,654	+0	Yes	+$555	05-23 04:03
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	8	$10.4K	13,785	13,785	+0	Yes	-$7,608	01-30 16:55
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	21	$10.1K	5,530	5,530	+0	No	+$530	05-24 05:00
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	10	$9.7K	6,629	6,629	+0	No	+$408	05-24 15:25
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	54	$9.6K	16,210	16,210	+0	No	-$2,505	09-13 13:42
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	8	$9.1K	9,423	0	+9,423	No	+$350	05-21 18:34
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	11	$8.3K	7,513	7,513	+0	No	+$2,260	04-25 19:56
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	21	$8.0K	13,667	13,667	+0	Yes	+$1,705	05-26 01:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 20:54:14	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	5,620	25¢	$1,405	0x573378…
10-23 20:52:21	Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,595	6¢	$100	0xb19348…
10-22 16:12:48	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	2,083	24¢	$500	0xb39c47…
10-20 01:45:41	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x61626e…
10-20 01:45:23	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	3,333	28¢	$933	0xf42621…
10-20 01:44:44	Republicans flip Democrats for Senate by November 2?	Yes	BUY	618	6¢	$37	0x908b6d…
10-19 16:29:23	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	175	28¢	$49	0x459b26…
10-19 16:28:47	Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,038	32¢	$333	0x40d435…
10-19 16:28:24	Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?	Yes	BUY	355	31¢	$110	0xfd537c…
10-19 16:27:50	Republicans flip Democrats for Senate by November 2?	Yes	BUY	293	5¢	$15	0x35f7b2…
10-19 05:41:38	Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x002b8c…
10-19 03:50:26	Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x219fd6…
10-18 13:06:47	Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?	Yes	BUY	40	30¢	$12	0xac341a…
10-18 10:09:18	Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xc0b115…
10-18 07:17:24	Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xa2f235…
10-17 15:51:06	Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?	Yes	BUY	22	30¢	$7	0x643cc9…
10-16 21:50:08	Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x0314a9…
10-16 14:37:51	Senate control favorite on November 2?	Republican Party	BUY	8,156	1¢	$114	0xfefa7e…
10-16 01:21:06	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	665	79¢	$525	0x4adc7b…
10-16 01:09:27	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	SELL	50	40¢	$20	0xb6a613…
10-16 01:09:04	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	SELL	1,274	40¢	$510	0xd72b7d…
10-15 18:37:25	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	1,324	82¢	$1,090	0x3c16ca…
10-11 19:16:48	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	6,822	29¢	$1,978	0x848cc0…
09-29 23:17:53	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	4,714	29¢	$1,367	0x6cc9b9…
09-29 23:15:29	Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?	Yes	BUY	395	51¢	$200	0x101605…
09-29 18:36:44	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,028	40¢	$1,611	0x199f47…
09-27 17:12:17	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,363	29¢	$395	0x24c0ef…
09-27 17:12:17	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	217	29¢	$63	0x09fcad…
09-27 16:10:14	Republicans flip Democrats for Senate by November 2?	Yes	BUY	385	13¢	$50	0x221931…
09-25 17:41:59	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,190	38¢	$832	0xb211e3…
09-25 15:01:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	34¢	$85	0xc9c9aa…
09-25 14:06:02	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0xc6ebd5…
09-25 13:55:35	Republicans flip Democrats for Senate by November 2?	Yes	BUY	718	11¢	$79	0x589ec8…
09-24 15:14:18	Republicans flip Democrats for Senate by November 2?	Yes	BUY	270	11¢	$30	0x4d52cf…
09-22 18:26:57	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	1,862	28¢	$521	0xe13ef7…
09-22 04:25:40	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	505	30¢	$152	0x2a172e…
09-22 04:25:40	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	258	30¢	$77	0x042f06…
09-22 03:48:43	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0xed13ad…
09-22 03:24:35	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	8	30¢	$2	0xb632d4…
09-22 02:14:24	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xdba92e…
09-22 02:13:23	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	95	30¢	$28	0x078529…
09-22 01:29:12	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	16	30¢	$5	0xa58cee…
09-22 01:14:21	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0xefb10e…
09-22 01:14:21	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	51	30¢	$15	0xdd2caa…
09-22 01:14:21	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x9ff5cf…
09-22 01:14:21	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x96ad90…
09-22 01:14:21	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x61ad2e…
09-22 01:14:21	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x566035…
09-22 01:14:21	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x4a1ac8…
09-22 01:14:21	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x2d9b06…
09-22 01:14:21	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x09d720…
09-22 01:14:21	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	75	30¢	$22	0x00c781…
09-22 01:01:01	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	469	30¢	$141	0x34aa08…
09-22 00:41:54	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	98	30¢	$29	0x0b7d1c…
09-21 21:39:06	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x1f643c…
09-21 21:27:52	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x4c5613…
09-21 19:39:22	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0xccb60b…
09-21 19:26:58	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	293	30¢	$88	0xe06a24…
09-21 19:26:58	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	906	30¢	$272	0x6db42f…
09-21 18:24:51	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	58	30¢	$17	0xb2baac…
09-21 18:19:12	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	11	30¢	$3	0xa7ea7b…
09-21 17:10:39	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x5213db…
09-21 17:10:07	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xca64be…
09-21 17:09:16	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x2cca17…
09-21 17:09:15	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xd07964…
09-21 17:07:57	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0xbd42f4…
09-21 17:07:57	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	65	30¢	$20	0xb17427…
09-21 17:07:57	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	25	30¢	$8	0x4ce9fd…
09-21 17:07:57	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	107	30¢	$32	0x000aa7…
09-19 23:26:52	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	3,225	31¢	$1,000	0x441a33…
09-18 23:13:13	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	9,779	31¢	$3,031	0xdb15c4…
09-18 22:03:43	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x94c0ed…
09-18 19:13:45	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x718217…
09-18 18:19:07	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	758	30¢	$227	0xac07e7…
09-18 16:06:57	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x3be547…
09-18 12:15:30	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x8ab760…
09-18 12:15:15	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x95f612…
09-18 12:15:13	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x995019…
09-18 12:15:12	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xd7e850…
09-18 12:14:55	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x76ebea…
09-18 12:14:54	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x7b275d…
09-18 12:14:52	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xb8a3cf…
09-18 12:14:39	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x9069c7…
09-18 12:14:39	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x72abb1…
09-18 12:14:37	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x097343…
09-18 12:14:27	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x5fc4de…
09-18 12:14:25	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x3eea29…
09-18 12:14:24	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xb70f63…
09-18 12:14:15	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xc23dd5…
09-18 12:14:13	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x56f1ab…
09-18 12:14:12	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x87bd4e…
09-18 12:13:58	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x6d9238…
09-18 12:13:57	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x3c1cf8…
09-18 12:13:55	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x19e524…
09-18 12:13:42	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x15f8ab…
09-18 12:13:40	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	80	30¢	$24	0x24715a…
09-18 12:13:39	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	80	30¢	$24	0xc4d9d4…
09-18 12:13:37	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	80	30¢	$24	0x64a820…
09-18 12:13:36	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	80	30¢	$24	0x31784c…
09-18 12:13:34	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	80	30¢	$24	0x3350aa…