Improbable-Comedy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$24

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

71.1%

Resolved

Trades

416

lifetime

Volume

$2.37K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-01

last 06-22 21:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 45% $-24

Politics

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 76 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (14) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	8	$198	129	129	+0	Up	+$58	05-11 13:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	9	$113	82	82	+0	Down	+$29	05-11 10:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	12	$106	237	0	+237	Down	$-106	05-11 13:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	5	$99	63	63	+0	Up	+$25	05-11 11:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10AM ET	4	$58	44	44	+0	Up	+$28	05-10 15:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11AM ET	6	$55	43	43	+0	Up	+$11	05-10 15:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	5	$51	42	42	+0	Down	+$11	05-10 12:00
bitcoin above 78k on february 1	2	$47	43	43	+0	open	—	02-01 15:31
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$41	76	76	+0	open	—	02-10 16:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10PM ET	2	$35	25	25	+0	open	—	04-30 03:19
bitcoin up or down february 11 3am et	8	$30	21	21	+0	open	—	02-11 08:55
bitcoin up or down february 1 8pm et	3	$29	20	20	+0	open	—	02-02 02:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	2	$29	19	19	+0	Up	+$9	05-10 11:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5PM ET	2	$29	19	19	+1	open	—	04-24 22:06
bitcoin up or down april 24 2026 2pm et	2	$29	19	19	+1	open	—	04-24 20:52
bitcoin up or down february 11 5pm et	2	$28	18	18	+0	open	—	02-11 23:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	2	$27	18	18	+0	Up	+$7	05-11 11:15
bitcoin up or down march 3 2pm et	4	$26	21	21	+0	open	—	03-03 20:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12PM ET	2	$25	20	20	+0	open	—	04-29 17:05
bitcoin up or down february 12 3pm et	6	$21	15	15	+0	open	—	02-12 20:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	2	$20	38	0	+38	Up	$-20	05-11 09:31
bitcoin up or down march 3 3pm et	4	$20	16	16	+0	open	—	03-03 21:01
bitcoin up or down february 19 7am et	4	$20	15	15	+0	open	—	02-19 13:00
bitcoin up or down february 23 5am et	4	$19	13	13	+0	open	—	02-23 10:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6PM ET	2	$18	14	13	+1	open	—	04-24 23:03
bitcoin up or down february 12 10pm et	6	$17	13	13	+0	open	—	02-13 03:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	3	$17	37	0	+37	Up	+$20	05-11 10:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	2	$16	11	11	+0	Down	+$6	05-11 03:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	3	$16	32	0	+32	Down	$-16	05-11 13:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7AM ET	3	$16	30	30	+0	Down	$-4	05-10 11:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 21:40:29	btc updown 15m 1782164700	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xa72c3a…
05-11 13:30:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xa7b267…
05-11 13:30:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xa675a7…
05-11 13:30:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x8eda6a…
05-11 13:30:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xeaaf71…
05-11 13:30:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0xb8defa…
05-11 13:30:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xae8d6e…
05-11 13:30:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x545fb4…
05-11 13:30:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xedba34…
05-11 13:30:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x42a4d6…
05-11 13:30:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x0fe91c…
05-11 13:30:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xe803d8…
05-11 13:30:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0xcf81f4…
05-11 13:15:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x542750…
05-11 13:15:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xd38b40…
05-11 13:11:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x09c43e…
05-11 13:09:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	SELL	129	99¢	$128	0xe8091e…
05-11 12:59:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	18	54¢	$10	0xfdf7c0…
05-11 12:59:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x799e31…
05-11 12:59:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xe73c94…
05-11 12:59:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xc1d40a…
05-11 12:59:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xc13b62…
05-11 12:59:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x4d2089…
05-11 12:59:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xccddc6…
05-11 12:52:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x3d8d86…
05-11 12:45:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0xc7ad1b…
05-11 12:45:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x19434d…
05-11 12:30:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0xdc29e1…
05-11 12:30:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0xc34c07…
05-11 12:15:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x4af36b…
05-11 12:15:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xe870e8…
05-11 12:12:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xe48ed6…
05-11 12:00:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x3be0be…
05-11 12:00:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xde466f…
05-11 11:57:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x2b668e…
05-11 11:43:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	SELL	63	98¢	$62	0xb70d1e…
05-11 11:33:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	12	61¢	$7	0x251905…
05-11 11:33:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xb28cc2…
05-11 11:33:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x37dee7…
05-11 11:33:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x326113…
05-11 11:15:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	SELL	18	99¢	$17	0xdb1053…
05-11 11:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x54f027…
05-11 10:59:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	SELL	62	99¢	$61	0x9c25f0…
05-11 10:43:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xb617e2…
05-11 10:41:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0xbaad58…
05-11 10:41:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x56dfd2…
05-11 10:41:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x871d79…
05-11 10:40:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xcd3f7a…
05-11 10:40:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x06964e…
05-11 10:40:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x94db53…
05-11 10:40:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x766cdb…
05-11 10:12:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xd4d4fb…
05-11 10:12:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x0dc682…
05-11 10:11:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x36797b…
05-11 09:31:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xa7c00a…
05-11 09:31:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x2f77d8…
05-11 06:52:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xac2743…
05-11 06:52:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x36684a…
05-11 05:01:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xd96521…
05-11 04:52:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x51211b…
05-11 04:46:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x2bbb94…
05-11 04:31:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x005f7b…
05-11 03:55:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x30b38f…
05-11 03:48:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xc568c6…
05-11 03:21:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xbfa6c6…
05-11 03:00:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x509c99…
05-11 02:45:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x11c7d4…
05-11 02:41:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	SELL	31	31¢	$10	0xe4adcb…
05-11 02:41:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x801802…
05-11 02:25:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10PM ET	Up	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0xe38e66…
05-11 02:22:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9PM ET	Up	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xd7bac5…
05-11 02:00:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xb0dc18…
05-11 01:55:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	37¢	$2	0x8a40ec…
05-11 01:34:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x65469d…
05-11 01:00:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x7e3ede…
05-11 00:51:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7PM ET	Up	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x3ebe00…
05-11 00:01:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x20ea99…
05-10 23:35:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3PM ET	Up	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xf0738c…
05-10 23:35:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5PM ET	Down	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x2f75c3…
05-10 23:00:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x31d288…
05-10 22:00:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xc17c48…
05-10 21:00:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x9c279e…
05-10 20:00:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x038a8e…
05-10 19:00:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x0afb72…
05-10 18:00:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x90c7cd…
05-10 17:11:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1PM ET	Up	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x0df226…
05-10 17:00:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x7e09e7…
05-10 17:00:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x298109…
05-10 16:00:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xdd873b…
05-10 16:00:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x4ed6e5…
05-10 15:53:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11AM ET	Up	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0x87d76c…
05-10 15:11:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xfeaab7…
05-10 15:05:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xd43249…
05-10 15:02:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10AM ET	Up	SELL	44	99¢	$43	0x851b3b…
05-10 15:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11AM ET	Up	SELL	21	55¢	$12	0x14a498…
05-10 15:00:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xcb33fb…
05-10 15:00:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x6fb685…
05-10 14:30:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x944ac5…
05-10 14:21:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xf92ee7…
05-10 14:21:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x053fce…