Knowledgeable-Carload — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$9

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

381

lifetime

Volume

$5.41K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-21

last 06-11 05:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

55% 0% $-4

Politics

34% 0% $-5

Tech

6% — —

Sports

5% 0% $-0

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 59 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	2	$319	214	214	+0	open	—	05-14 10:30
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	2	$285	208	208	+0	open	—	05-06 22:19
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	2	$280	210	210	+0	open	—	05-05 13:11
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$189	371	371	+0	open	—	05-07 07:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$160	262	262	+0	open	—	04-29 15:14
Will Pinterest (PINS) beat quarterly earnings?	3	$146	109	109	+0	Yes	$-1	05-03 20:43
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	16	$132	183	183	+0	open	—	04-25 14:55
will ty simpson be drafted in the 1st round of the 2026 pro football draft 713	8	$130	96	96	+0	open	—	04-23 06:25
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	2	$128	77	77	+0	No	$-1	05-07 11:22
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	12	$126	127	127	+0	open	—	04-24 15:51
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	4	$93	72	72	+0	open	—	06-02 23:06
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	8	$92	110	110	+0	open	—	04-23 03:17
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	2	$87	105	105	+0	open	—	05-06 11:39
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?	5	$83	49	64	-14	open	—	05-31 15:18
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	2	$82	108	108	+0	open	—	04-28 18:44
will arvell reese be the second pick in the 2026 nfl draft	6	$80	79	79	+0	open	—	04-22 16:36
Will Figure's F.03 Robots Run Without Failure Through May 21, 10 PM ET?	2	$78	45	45	+0	open	—	05-20 11:24
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire	4	$77	49	49	+0	open	—	05-23 06:39
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	2	$71	117	117	+0	open	—	04-28 21:42
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	2	$71	52	52	+0	open	—	05-21 12:58
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	2	$70	53	53	+0	open	—	06-02 16:36
Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3?	4	$70	42	42	+0	open	—	05-26 22:54
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	6	$68	42	51	-9	open	—	05-26 19:34
Will Bhavitha Mandava be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?	3	$66	43	43	+0	No	$-2	05-04 02:23
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	3	$60	46	46	+0	open	—	05-05 03:01
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	2	$59	52	52	+0	open	—	05-20 13:14
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2026?	2	$59	34	34	+0	open	—	05-30 05:04
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?	2	$59	52	52	+0	open	—	05-14 08:29
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	5	$59	56	56	+0	open	—	06-03 12:07
Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$56	36	36	+0	open	—	05-13 15:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 05:23:13	will nansen launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	34	45¢	$15	0xc1bb9f…
06-11 05:11:18	will nansen launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	34	56¢	$19	0xe96c19…
06-11 04:04:24	will iran close its airspace by june 13 20260609184136051	Yes	SELL	36	31¢	$11	0xf4e9c2…
06-11 04:03:49	will iran close its airspace by june 13 20260609184136051	Yes	BUY	36	32¢	$12	0x8c71ed…
06-11 03:18:45	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	35	23¢	$8	0xcaf89e…
06-11 03:15:54	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	35	25¢	$9	0xf3bd5e…
06-10 17:19:27	will next claude mythos debut on the text arena leaderboard at 1480	No	SELL	31	34¢	$11	0xd59f98…
06-10 17:18:54	will next claude mythos debut on the text arena leaderboard at 1480	No	BUY	31	35¢	$11	0xfcef12…
06-10 09:39:10	will mark juncosa be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212484	No	SELL	35	21¢	$7	0xc47166…
06-10 09:35:33	will mark juncosa be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212484	No	BUY	35	42¢	$15	0x20519d…
06-10 08:47:13	will rabby launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	37	61¢	$22	0x1c1390…
06-10 08:46:07	will rabby launch a token by december 31 2027	No	BUY	37	62¢	$23	0x079724…
06-05 06:15:15	will apple announce an apple smart home display during the wwdc 2026 keynote	Yes	SELL	37	12¢	$4	0x61b84b…
06-05 06:10:30	will apple announce an apple smart home display during the wwdc 2026 keynote	Yes	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xa47906…
06-05 05:39:54	kmx quarterly earnings gaap eps 06 17 2026 0pt94	No	SELL	6	47¢	$3	0x7dca3f…
06-05 05:39:43	kmx quarterly earnings gaap eps 06 17 2026 0pt94	No	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x96d3f0…
06-05 04:33:58	fda approves kiniksa regeneron arcalyst 06 19 2026	Yes	SELL	15	52¢	$8	0x0d520d…
06-05 04:32:01	fda approves kiniksa regeneron arcalyst 06 19 2026	Yes	SELL	25	66¢	$16	0xf47384…
06-05 04:31:46	fda approves kiniksa regeneron arcalyst 06 19 2026	Yes	BUY	40	73¢	$29	0x77f991…
06-05 00:13:06	unfi quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 09 2026 0pt77	No	SELL	21	9¢	$2	0x2fcf02…
06-05 00:13:04	unfi quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 09 2026 0pt77	No	BUY	21	10¢	$2	0x661793…
06-04 16:26:34	will propr launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	21	78¢	$16	0x46d485…
06-04 16:26:16	will propr launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	21	79¢	$17	0x3a7514…
06-04 05:19:00	will titan launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	30	43¢	$13	0xbac75e…
06-04 05:18:57	will titan launch a token by december 31 2027	No	BUY	30	43¢	$13	0x453c17…
06-03 12:07:31	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	Yes	SELL	21	63¢	$13	0x2eddc1…
06-03 12:07:01	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	Yes	BUY	21	67¢	$14	0xfd5e48…
06-02 23:06:23	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	47¢	$19	0xd4ebb2…
06-02 23:05:53	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	48¢	$19	0x9401f9…
06-02 16:36:09	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	No	SELL	53	65¢	$34	0x7b91f6…
06-02 16:35:59	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	No	BUY	53	67¢	$36	0xbc6897…
06-01 22:28:48	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	84¢	$26	0xf72690…
06-01 22:23:15	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	89¢	$28	0x3a22e9…
06-01 13:28:08	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	35	35¢	$12	0xe604c8…
06-01 13:27:24	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	35	38¢	$13	0xf87c93…
06-01 12:17:12	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	No	SELL	21	30¢	$6	0xb4b7f5…
06-01 12:17:01	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	No	BUY	21	30¢	$6	0x8805ca…
06-01 07:49:53	Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?	Yes	SELL	54	38¢	$20	0x60c7dc…
06-01 07:49:15	Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?	Yes	BUY	54	40¢	$21	0x6c0583…
06-01 01:01:38	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	No	SELL	38	66¢	$25	0xf040f0…
06-01 01:01:30	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	No	BUY	38	67¢	$26	0x244e56…
05-31 15:33:27	US x China tariff agreement by December 31?	No	SELL	42	29¢	$12	0x5abae9…
05-31 15:32:52	US x China tariff agreement by December 31?	No	BUY	42	28¢	$12	0xca3517…
05-31 15:18:03	Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	14	65¢	$9	0x44bd39…
05-31 10:59:01	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	SELL	21	40¢	$9	0x566fb6…
05-31 10:43:07	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	SELL	14	43¢	$6	0x985083…
05-31 10:35:01	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	BUY	35	48¢	$17	0x1eeca1…
05-30 05:04:43	Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	34	86¢	$29	0x14af3b…
05-30 05:04:29	Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	34	87¢	$30	0x1ee013…
05-30 03:05:01	Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x310400…
05-30 03:04:54	Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	9¢	$0	0x78bd37…
05-29 06:58:11	Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	9¢	$2	0xe5e36b…
05-29 06:58:06	Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	26¢	$5	0x4c920b…
05-29 02:17:43	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	No	SELL	2	21¢	$1	0xc7aeef…
05-29 02:17:06	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	No	BUY	2	21¢	$1	0xc1ac84…
05-29 00:44:42	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?	Yes	SELL	21	11¢	$2	0x5d56f9…
05-29 00:44:26	Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?	Yes	BUY	21	19¢	$4	0x36116a…
05-28 19:24:10	Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	45	8¢	$3	0x10ae0c…
05-28 19:06:13	Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	45	20¢	$9	0xfa21e0…
05-28 04:44:56	Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	21	73¢	$15	0xf83c30…
05-28 04:44:02	Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	21	74¢	$16	0x2ded05…
05-27 23:25:18	Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	28	25¢	$7	0xa664e1…
05-27 23:14:20	Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	28	38¢	$11	0x6a6fbf…
05-27 21:40:02	Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	28	76¢	$21	0x6385be…
05-27 21:39:58	Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	28	76¢	$21	0x54204b…
05-26 22:54:44	Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	SELL	21	82¢	$17	0x9b7198…
05-26 22:54:43	Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	BUY	21	83¢	$17	0xc7aac4…
05-26 19:36:50	Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?	Yes	SELL	21	66¢	$14	0xe1f0f1…
05-26 19:36:24	Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?	Yes	BUY	21	65¢	$14	0x19f3e1…
05-26 19:34:35	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	SELL	2	76¢	$1	0xa23eac…
05-26 19:25:52	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	21	79¢	$16	0x94bcfe…
05-26 18:01:47	NBA: SGA Award Parlay	Yes	SELL	28	43¢	$12	0xb1c803…
05-26 18:00:51	NBA: SGA Award Parlay	Yes	BUY	28	45¢	$13	0x43a117…
05-25 16:13:51	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	SELL	16	62¢	$10	0x724587…
05-25 16:07:57	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0xb9c7b5…
05-25 16:04:59	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	21	68¢	$14	0xb39460…
05-25 14:43:01	Will Dell Q1 Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue be above $23.5B?	Yes	SELL	21	56¢	$12	0x594a31…
05-25 14:33:06	Will Dell Q1 Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue be above $23.5B?	Yes	BUY	21	54¢	$11	0x81c70b…
05-24 19:21:03	Will Palo Alto Networks Q3 Next-Generation Security ARR be above $8.0B?	Yes	SELL	28	27¢	$8	0x9a5839…
05-24 19:19:42	Will Palo Alto Networks Q3 Next-Generation Security ARR be above $8.0B?	Yes	BUY	28	56¢	$16	0x2b89cf…
05-23 21:10:58	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	SELL	28	80¢	$23	0x0e8820…
05-23 06:39:22	Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire	Supah Hot	SELL	21	81¢	$17	0xb806ca…
05-23 06:39:08	Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire	Supah Hot	BUY	21	81¢	$17	0x3ff4bf…
05-23 04:43:24	Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery	Menery	SELL	21	30¢	$6	0xa43d95…
05-23 04:43:10	Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery	Menery	BUY	21	32¢	$7	0x6ddb3b…
05-22 04:40:00	Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery	Menery	SELL	29	33¢	$9	0xd47936…
05-22 04:38:08	Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery	Menery	BUY	29	44¢	$13	0xec3b79…
05-22 03:09:48	Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire	Supah Hot	SELL	28	72¢	$20	0x3d4272…
05-22 02:59:44	Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire	Supah Hot	BUY	28	79¢	$22	0x944441…
05-22 02:08:08	Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?	No	SELL	27	87¢	$24	0x0ed711…
05-22 02:08:03	Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?	No	BUY	27	88¢	$24	0x23b0c0…
05-21 23:39:35	Will Trump say "Radical Left" during events in Rockland County?	No	SELL	25	24¢	$6	0xf4a91c…
05-21 23:39:25	Will Trump say "Radical Left" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	25	34¢	$8	0x5e2835…
05-21 19:55:53	Will SC Paderborn achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?	Yes	BUY	21	30¢	$6	0xdd2f0d…
05-21 12:58:44	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	SELL	52	67¢	$35	0x0c62e9…
05-21 12:58:29	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes	BUY	52	68¢	$36	0x75ed29…
05-21 10:53:53	Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	46	17¢	$8	0x99a05a…
05-21 10:28:35	Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	17	30¢	$5	0x71c1df…
05-21 10:27:08	Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?	Yes	BUY	62	33¢	$21	0x50b5e0…
05-20 17:13:58	Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 75B in Q1?	No	SELL	21	45¢	$9	0x89136e…