Humble-Assumption — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$73

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

60.4%

Resolved

515

Trades

740

lifetime

Volume

$11.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-15

last 10-29 01:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 133 days

Categories

Crypto

93% 55% +$122

Other

5% 56% +$92

Politics

1% 0% -$141

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-31 17:15 UTC	2	$120	71	70	+2	Down	+$21	03-31 17:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-01 13:15 UTC	2	$113	75	73	+3	Up	+$35	04-01 13:31
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-30 13:00 UTC	2	$111	96	95	+2	Up	+$11	03-30 13:01
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-31 22:00 UTC	2	$110	73	70	+2	Down	+$33	03-31 22:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-30 19:30 UTC	4	$109	96	95	+2	Up	-$10	03-30 19:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-30 17:30 UTC	2	$108	70	69	+1	Up	+$29	03-30 17:45
Will the US strike Iran next?	1	$97	2,413	0	+2,413	No	-$97	02-28 09:06
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-13 13:45 UTC	4	$91	59	58	+1	Up	-$8	04-13 13:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-13 14:00 UTC	2	$89	49	49	+1	Down	+$8	04-13 14:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-29 15:45 UTC	2	$84	55	54	+1	Up	+$24	03-29 16:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-28 00:00 UTC	2	$83	54	53	+1	Down	+$24	03-28 00:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-29 20:30 UTC	2	$83	55	54	+1	Down	+$23	03-29 20:42
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-03 21:45 UTC	2	$82	55	53	+2	Down	+$24	04-03 22:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-28 23:30 UTC	2	$82	54	53	+1	Down	+$22	03-28 23:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-30 18:30 UTC	2	$82	54	53	+1	Up	+$23	03-30 18:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-03 22:00 UTC	2	$82	54	52	+2	Down	+$24	04-03 22:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-12 22:30 UTC	2	$77	51	49	+2	Up	+$23	04-12 22:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-26 15:35 UTC	4	$75	46	46	+0	Up	-$3	02-26 15:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-26 16:50 UTC	4	$74	49	48	+0	Down	-$3	02-26 16:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-26 16:45 UTC	2	$74	38	38	+0	Down	+$2	02-26 16:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 10:00 UTC	2	$72	37	37	+0	Up	+$1	02-23 10:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 09:55 UTC	2	$71	36	36	+0	Down	+$1	02-23 10:00
DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-23 13:00 UTC	1	$69	117	0	+117	Down	-$69	07-23 12:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-20 14:30 UTC	2	$66	50	49	+1	Up	+$12	03-20 14:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 15:25 UTC	2	$65	35	34	+0	Down	+$3	02-23 15:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 22:35 UTC	2	$64	32	32	+0	Down	+$0	02-22 22:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 23:15 UTC	2	$62	35	35	+0	Up	+$8	02-22 23:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 22:05 UTC	2	$62	32	32	+0	Down	+$2	02-22 22:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-29 11:45 UTC	1	$60	107	0	+107	Down	+$47	03-29 11:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-28 22:15 UTC	1	$60	104	0	+104	Up	+$44	03-28 22:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 01:45:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	34	41¢	$14	0xdee2d7…
10-28 18:44:23	XRP Up or Down - October 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	15	53¢	$8	0x207d0d…
10-26 23:58:17	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0xf19c8b…
10-26 23:44:54	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0xdccc6c…
10-26 13:29:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x3669ae…
10-25 21:59:23	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x21f0dc…
10-25 16:59:30	XRP Up or Down - October 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x365546…
10-24 23:46:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xad9caa…
10-24 15:15:03	XRP Up or Down - October 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x1919c2…
10-24 14:44:38	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xce9111…
10-21 14:55:33	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x859465…
10-21 14:45:30	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0x580212…
10-21 07:57:33	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x593bcf…
10-21 07:31:53	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	78	26¢	$20	0xf2c010…
10-20 14:06:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x8e0c53…
10-20 13:58:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x866d9a…
10-20 01:13:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x3940b4…
10-20 00:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0xb8df09…
10-18 22:14:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0x3ba0b2…
10-18 19:44:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0x502b64…
10-18 13:44:23	BNB Up or Down - October 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0xbdf3cb…
10-18 13:29:03	XRP Up or Down - October 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0xf11dfe…
10-18 09:42:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x00960a…
10-17 15:59:53	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x2588e2…
10-17 12:14:44	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0xc6ce20…
10-16 11:14:25	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0x3cd8cf…
10-15 23:14:46	XRP Up or Down - October 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x15fb44…
10-15 14:59:14	Solana Up or Down - October 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	45	53¢	$24	0xb82a8c…
10-15 14:45:11	Solana Up or Down - October 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0xedd4b2…
10-15 12:59:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0xe68e0d…
10-13 23:28:45	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 23:30 UTC	Up	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0xabe4cc…
10-13 23:14:13	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 23:15 UTC	Up	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0xfec296…
10-12 21:57:51	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x153ab0…
10-12 05:01:36	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0x7c00ae…
10-12 04:44:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x71a395…
10-11 15:51:42	XRP Up or Down - October 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	47	54¢	$25	0xf606eb…
10-11 15:51:30	XRP Up or Down - October 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	37	9¢	$3	0xde13ed…
10-11 15:43:57	XRP Up or Down - October 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0xdd72b2…
10-11 12:14:49	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-11 12:15 UTC	Down	BUY	49	58¢	$28	0x3de0ef…
10-11 11:57:19	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0xcbe6ce…
10-10 14:29:37	BNB Up or Down - October 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0xc322cb…
10-09 19:59:49	Solana Up or Down - October 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0xd7df7d…
10-09 11:53:40	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-09 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x41ce1a…
10-09 10:59:00	XRP Up or Down - October 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0xb3b9da…
10-09 10:42:16	XRP Up or Down - October 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x510e36…
10-08 15:26:20	XRP Up or Down - October 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x3a9c6c…
10-08 15:16:35	XRP Up or Down - October 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	47	43¢	$20	0x3133ca…
10-07 17:43:34	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0xcfdd1c…
10-07 16:07:58	BNB Up or Down - October 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x2a4c1e…
10-04 21:12:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	53	56¢	$30	0xda3f9a…
10-04 20:56:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0xeef3a5…
10-04 15:15:47	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x720ebf…
10-04 14:59:07	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0xb3a6a1…
10-04 06:55:28	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x7df7da…
10-03 21:29:22	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 21:30 UTC	Up	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0xf3e1e2…
10-03 21:11:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	35	56¢	$20	0x2be245…
10-03 17:13:21	BNB Up or Down - October 3, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0xa8e4d6…
10-03 14:56:26	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 15:00 UTC	Down	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0xba5711…
10-03 12:30:26	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0xef796c…
10-02 18:44:08	BNB Up or Down - October 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	37	55¢	$20	0xec8290…
10-02 15:13:53	Solana Up or Down - October 2, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xd06cc8…
10-02 14:57:05	Solana Up or Down - October 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0xf0b5a4…
10-02 12:58:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	39	52¢	$20	0x91c5c3…
10-01 13:10:36	Solana Up or Down - October 1, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x76add0…
09-30 12:55:56	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 13:00 UTC	Down	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0xd1c24f…
09-29 15:29:44	BNB Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 15:30 UTC	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xea62d1…
09-29 15:13:12	BNB Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 15:15 UTC	Up	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x7c6b7f…
09-29 12:42:12	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 12:45 UTC	Down	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x752634…
09-29 11:58:08	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	55	55¢	$30	0x805234…
09-28 12:08:11	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-28 12:15 UTC	Down	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x01eb78…
09-26 08:43:14	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-26 08:45 UTC	Down	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x133f84…
09-25 09:30:54	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-25 09:30 UTC	Down	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0x764481…
09-24 13:41:51	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-24 13:45 UTC	Down	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x4fb3f3…
09-24 08:55:24	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-24 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x599844…
09-23 22:09:58	Solana Up or Down - September 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	39	52¢	$20	0xb74a67…
09-23 07:49:20	Solana Up or Down - September 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	42	47¢	$20	0xb12984…
09-22 12:58:46	BNB Up or Down - September 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x9a4f6a…
09-22 08:59:25	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-22 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0x6b69d6…
09-21 20:27:15	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0xf1673a…
09-20 16:29:27	Solana Up or Down - September 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0xae2f5c…
09-20 16:15:21	XRP Up or Down - September 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	57	53¢	$30	0xc8a3c8…
09-20 15:15:10	XRP Up or Down - September 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	41	48¢	$20	0x625202…
09-19 21:43:38	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 21:45 UTC	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x353a61…
09-19 15:43:30	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0xd76d9f…
09-19 14:29:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0x145aa4…
09-18 09:13:15	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-18 09:15 UTC	Down	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0xe458b4…
09-17 20:29:27	BNB Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-17 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	37	55¢	$20	0x5f0d3e…
09-16 17:44:28	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-16 17:45 UTC	Up	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0xbccdd7…
09-16 11:44:46	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-16 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x507b15…
09-16 08:06:39	Ethereum Up or Down - September 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x1005fb…
09-16 07:44:45	BNB Up or Down - September 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	35	56¢	$20	0xdaccf9…
09-15 12:56:33	XRP Up or Down - September 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0xbe6c73…
09-14 14:15:21	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-14 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xd73cef…
09-14 13:14:43	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-14 13:15 UTC	Up	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0x93c979…
09-14 12:59:31	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-14 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	37	53¢	$20	0x9bdba3…
09-14 09:53:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-14 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x67dfd9…
09-13 22:31:19	Dogecoin Up or Down - September 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	49	41¢	$20	0xa2ac98…
09-13 22:08:06	Dogecoin Up or Down - September 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	39	52¢	$20	0x1e6d6a…
09-13 14:12:58	Solana Up or Down - September 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	37	53¢	$20	0xd5e962…
09-13 13:27:37	Dogecoin Up or Down - September 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	37	53¢	$20	0xf5544f…