Humble-Assumption — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$33

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

68.1%

Resolved

Trades

524

lifetime

Volume

$7.02K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-15

last 07-17 13:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

96% 67% +$25

Other

2% 100% +$8

Politics

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 15m 1774977300	2	$120	71	70	+2	open	—	03-31 17:30
btc updown 15m 1775049300	2	$113	75	73	+3	open	—	04-01 13:31
btc updown 15m 1774875600	2	$111	96	95	+2	open	—	03-30 13:01
btc updown 15m 1774994400	2	$110	73	70	+2	open	—	03-31 22:15
btc updown 15m 1774899000	4	$109	96	95	+2	open	—	03-30 19:42
btc updown 15m 1774891800	2	$108	70	69	+1	open	—	03-30 17:45
Will the US strike Iran next?	1	$97	2,413	0	+2,413	open	—	02-28 09:06
sol updown 15m 1776087900	4	$91	59	58	+1	open	—	04-13 13:56
btc updown 15m 1776088800	2	$89	49	49	+1	open	—	04-13 14:15
btc updown 15m 1774799100	2	$84	55	54	+1	open	—	03-29 16:00
btc updown 15m 1774656000	2	$83	54	53	+1	open	—	03-28 00:15
btc updown 15m 1774816200	2	$83	55	54	+1	open	—	03-29 20:42
sol updown 15m 1775252700	2	$82	55	53	+2	open	—	04-03 22:00
btc updown 15m 1774740600	2	$82	54	53	+1	open	—	03-28 23:43
btc updown 15m 1774895400	2	$82	54	53	+1	open	—	03-30 18:45
btc updown 15m 1775253600	2	$82	54	52	+2	open	—	04-03 22:15
btc updown 15m 1776033000	2	$77	51	49	+2	open	—	04-12 22:46
btc updown 5m 1772120100	4	$75	46	46	+0	open	—	02-26 15:39
btc updown 5m 1772124600	4	$74	49	48	+0	open	—	02-26 16:54
btc updown 5m 1772124300	2	$74	38	38	+0	open	—	02-26 16:50
btc updown 5m 1771840800	2	$72	37	37	+0	open	—	02-23 10:05
btc updown 5m 1771840500	2	$71	36	36	+0	open	—	02-23 10:00
btc updown 15m 1774017000	2	$66	50	49	+1	open	—	03-20 14:32
btc updown 5m 1771860300	2	$65	35	34	+0	open	—	02-23 15:29
btc updown 5m 1771799700	2	$64	32	32	+0	open	—	02-22 22:40
btc updown 5m 1771802100	2	$62	35	35	+0	open	—	02-22 23:20
btc updown 5m 1771797900	2	$62	32	32	+0	open	—	02-22 22:10
btc updown 15m 1774784700	1	$60	107	0	+107	open	—	03-29 11:42
btc updown 15m 1774736100	1	$60	104	0	+104	open	—	03-28 22:13
btc updown 15m 1775289600	2	$57	55	53	+2	open	—	04-04 08:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-17 13:42:39	bnb updown 15m 1784295900	Up	BUY	46	55¢	$25	0x66d77d…
07-17 13:16:18	bnb updown 15m 1784294100	Up	BUY	64	62¢	$40	0x861f15…
07-16 23:29:37	hype updown 15m 1784244600	Up	BUY	19	58¢	$11	0xbbc899…
07-16 17:29:23	hype updown 15m 1784223000	Up	BUY	52	58¢	$30	0xb52638…
07-15 13:11:26	eth updown 15m 1784121300	Down	BUY	73	56¢	$41	0xe66710…
07-14 12:53:46	btc updown 15m 1784034000	Down	BUY	42	54¢	$23	0xfb7866…
07-02 10:58:37	sol updown 15m 1782990000	Down	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xcd3313…
07-02 10:43:37	sol updown 15m 1782989100	Down	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x81ec54…
07-02 10:29:23	sol updown 15m 1782988200	Down	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0x7cac66…
07-02 10:28:50	sol updown 15m 1782987300	Down	SELL	47	0¢	$0	0x85b73a…
07-02 10:13:46	sol updown 15m 1782987300	Down	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0x5aab41…
07-02 00:45:13	doge updown 15m 1782953100	Up	BUY	34	62¢	$21	0xe478ed…
07-01 22:15:59	btc updown 15m 1782944100	Down	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x0132b9…
07-01 22:00:05	btc updown 15m 1782943200	Down	BUY	37	57¢	$21	0x208035…
07-01 21:59:50	btc updown 15m 1782942300	Down	SELL	13	24¢	$3	0x2670c1…
07-01 21:44:19	btc updown 15m 1782942300	Down	BUY	40	58¢	$23	0xb13c00…
07-01 20:44:19	hype updown 15m 1782938700	Up	BUY	35	58¢	$20	0x75441d…
07-01 15:29:11	sol updown 15m 1782919800	Down	BUY	37	55¢	$20	0xb5b9cc…
07-01 15:28:49	sol updown 15m 1782918900	Down	SELL	37	0¢	$0	0x02d3a9…
07-01 15:15:32	sol updown 15m 1782918900	Down	BUY	37	53¢	$20	0x4fe40c…
07-01 15:06:01	sol updown 15m 1782918000	Down	SELL	43	30¢	$13	0xde921a…
07-01 14:59:22	sol updown 15m 1782918000	Down	BUY	43	54¢	$23	0x110ece…
07-01 14:16:50	btc updown 15m 1782915300	Down	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x792c22…
07-01 01:15:22	xrp updown 15m 1782868500	Up	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0xc1616d…
06-30 13:02:37	btc updown 15m 1782824400	Up	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0xb0ece0…
06-30 12:28:14	xrp updown 15m 1782822600	Up	BUY	64	55¢	$35	0x9381d9…
06-30 12:24:47	doge updown 15m 1782821700	Up	SELL	47	13¢	$6	0x0c9366…
06-30 12:16:29	doge updown 15m 1782821700	Up	BUY	47	64¢	$30	0x135d26…
06-29 17:54:43	eth updown 15m 1782755100	Down	SELL	61	41¢	$25	0x4a69a3…
06-29 17:46:25	eth updown 15m 1782755100	Down	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0x39d596…
06-29 17:28:16	eth updown 15m 1782754200	Down	BUY	73	55¢	$40	0x99623e…
06-29 12:29:43	hype updown 15m 1782736200	Down	BUY	52	58¢	$30	0xadf937…
06-28 22:59:14	btc updown 15m 1782687600	Up	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0xca5921…
06-28 21:56:41	hype updown 15m 1782684000	Up	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0x7c082b…
06-28 17:43:22	btc updown 15m 1782668700	Up	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x959886…
06-28 16:41:50	btc updown 15m 1782665100	Up	BUY	40	55¢	$22	0x3c0716…
06-27 19:59:11	sol updown 15m 1782590400	Up	BUY	33	54¢	$18	0xbe08a1…
06-26 14:27:10	sol updown 15m 1782484200	Down	BUY	29	52¢	$15	0xf8585b…
06-26 02:16:31	eth updown 15m 1782440100	Up	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x4c0b29…
06-25 13:54:43	btc updown 15m 1782396000	Up	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x4118e2…
06-25 13:50:16	btc updown 15m 1782395100	Up	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x59334e…
05-28 13:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x600b08…
05-27 18:16:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xc3dc78…
05-27 17:58:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xd6d598…
05-27 14:35:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	17	76¢	$13	0xd1b471…
05-27 14:14:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xf6383a…
05-27 13:55:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x9cfb35…
05-20 18:43:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0x2aeef7…
05-20 16:59:07	Solana Up or Down - May 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x6ca0c5…
05-16 21:52:35	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	17	51¢	$9	0xcd10f0…
05-14 13:38:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	22	54¢	$12	0x7ee5e3…
05-14 12:56:30	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	26	54¢	$14	0xeee521…
05-14 12:06:00	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	26	57¢	$15	0xb61861…
05-13 22:27:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	29	52¢	$15	0xed5ad7…
05-13 21:08:40	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x0bb2ec…
05-13 17:54:34	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x32faac…
05-13 15:47:18	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	17	57¢	$10	0x4dea70…
05-13 15:32:05	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	23	66¢	$15	0x99b5aa…
05-13 13:52:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xab91c4…
05-13 12:39:21	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x5b00de…
05-13 11:53:30	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x3a1576…
05-12 19:39:57	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x8ab14f…
05-12 15:27:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x22e30a…
05-12 15:01:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xac9086…
05-12 14:24:15	BNB Up or Down - May 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xf1d63b…
05-11 22:14:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x65cef4…
05-11 17:49:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	15	74¢	$11	0x3c173b…
04-27 15:05:42	BNB Up or Down - April 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	21	56¢	$12	0x2093b9…
04-22 16:54:08	sol updown 15m 1776877200	Up	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x2db9cf…
04-22 16:00:04	btc updown 15m 1776873600	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x4d4e99…
04-22 15:59:34	btc updown 15m 1776872700	Down	SELL	17	27¢	$5	0xbd3311…
04-22 15:40:14	btc updown 15m 1776872700	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xd18384…
04-22 14:54:44	btc updown 15m 1776870000	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x857bec…
04-22 14:16:54	btc updown 15m 1776867300	Down	BUY	28	67¢	$19	0x05f611…
04-22 14:01:04	btc updown 15m 1776866400	Down	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xe05246…
04-22 13:45:08	eth updown 15m 1776865500	Down	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0x371309…
04-22 13:29:32	btc updown 15m 1776864600	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x325176…
04-22 12:13:56	eth updown 15m 1776860100	Down	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xe7b38e…
04-22 09:25:54	sol updown 15m 1776850200	Down	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xd9fc0b…
04-22 09:25:38	sol updown 15m 1776849300	Down	SELL	11	28¢	$3	0x1a02ff…
04-22 09:24:22	sol updown 15m 1776849300	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xbc1682…
04-21 20:00:32	sol updown 15m 1776800700	Up	SELL	18	100¢	$17	0x0de654…
04-21 19:44:14	sol updown 15m 1776800700	Up	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x482ddc…
04-21 10:25:56	sol updown 15m 1776766500	Down	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x8f40fd…
04-20 18:58:10	btc updown 15m 1776711600	Down	BUY	28	56¢	$16	0xa33f2d…
04-20 18:56:26	eth updown 15m 1776710700	Down	SELL	17	1¢	$0	0xc464d5…
04-20 18:42:44	eth updown 15m 1776710700	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x900bff…
04-20 18:16:10	sol updown 15m 1776708900	Down	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xddb040…
04-20 17:52:14	btc updown 15m 1776708000	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xa73401…
04-20 17:42:16	btc updown 15m 1776706200	Down	SELL	18	5¢	$1	0x543fbd…
04-20 17:22:32	btc updown 15m 1776706200	Down	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x6dae4e…
04-20 14:52:46	eth updown 15m 1776697200	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x81a566…
04-20 14:29:06	eth updown 15m 1776694500	Up	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x66222e…
04-20 14:11:26	eth updown 15m 1776694500	Up	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x1d2f1a…
04-20 13:31:38	sol updown 15m 1776690900	Down	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x9e02d0…
04-20 13:14:14	sol updown 15m 1776690900	Down	BUY	22	54¢	$12	0x92b017…
04-19 16:48:50	eth updown 15m 1776617100	Up	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xd8e55e…
04-19 16:25:36	eth updown 15m 1776616200	Up	BUY	26	57¢	$15	0x7ccb72…
04-19 13:25:50	btc updown 15m 1776605400	Down	BUY	24	58¢	$14	0x0cc777…
04-19 12:17:48	sol updown 15m 1776601800	Down	BUY	14	54¢	$8	0x20f448…