Small-Congregation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$796

Unrealized P&L

+$180

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

505

lifetime

Volume

$414.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$820

Open exposure

$226

1 position

First seen

2026-03-02

last 05-30 19:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

66% — —

Politics

33% 0% $-357

Sports

0% 0% $-439

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 83 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes		-1,158	$-405	20¢	$-226	+$180	05-30 19:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	45	$61.2K	50,874	36,546	+14,329	open	—	03-26 23:05
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	36	$58.8K	44,395	44,395	+0	open	—	03-24 20:06
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	33	$40.3K	38,550	38,550	+0	open	—	03-24 11:05
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	24	$18.4K	29,665	6,353	+23,312	open	—	04-15 23:35
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	16	$15.5K	14,867	8,619	+6,248	open	—	03-26 23:04
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	12	$15.0K	8,908	8,908	+0	open	—	03-07 00:52
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	5	$12.9K	8,958	8,958	+0	open	—	04-07 22:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	8	$12.3K	7,930	7,930	+0	open	—	04-23 09:00
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	5	$12.1K	9,110	9,110	+0	open	—	04-07 22:58
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	9	$10.0K	9,011	9,011	+0	open	—	04-08 08:11
will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 124 949 438 563 647 712 323	3	$9.7K	6,852	6,852	+0	open	—	03-06 17:50
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	10	$9.2K	6,973	6,973	+0	open	—	04-15 14:02
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	5	$8.3K	5,008	5,008	+0	open	—	04-12 19:39
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	5	$7.3K	16,852	16,852	+0	open	—	03-20 19:44
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$7.2K	6,776	6,776	+0	open	—	03-02 21:49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	9	$5.8K	5,195	5,095	+100	open	—	04-07 22:47
will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	7	$5.2K	13,210	500	+12,710	open	—	03-25 13:25
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	7	$5.1K	3,830	3,830	+0	open	—	04-15 14:02
will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	6	$5.0K	9,405	0	+9,405	open	—	03-26 22:11
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$4.7K	5,551	5,551	+0	open	—	03-10 20:55
will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	8	$4.3K	13,252	0	+13,252	open	—	03-24 22:01
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	24	$4.3K	4,873	4,873	+0	open	—	04-14 15:44
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	5	$4.1K	4,209	4,209	+0	open	—	04-02 01:24
will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	6	$4.0K	2,615	2,615	+0	open	—	04-15 14:02
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	6	$3.8K	14,336	13,865	+471	open	—	04-07 22:48
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	37	$3.8K	8,420	8,420	+0	open	—	04-09 10:32
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$3.6K	7,144	7,144	+0	open	—	03-13 13:40
will crude oil cl hit high 80 by end of march 113 384 528 915 639 242 637	2	$3.5K	4,732	0	+4,732	open	—	03-04 16:08
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	7	$3.5K	3,875	1,856	+2,019	open	—	04-14 15:44
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	3	$3.5K	7,729	7,729	+0	open	—	04-08 14:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-30 19:44:23	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,158	35¢	$405	0x52fc61…
05-30 17:24:28	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	2,046	50¢	$1,023	0xc201ef…
05-30 16:02:57	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	3,654	55¢	$2,000	0x279696…
05-30 15:43:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,455	97¢	$1,414	0x2765e9…
04-23 09:00:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	5,072	96¢	$4,878	0xda9e41…
04-15 23:35:08	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3,327	30¢	$1,000	0xce7629…
04-15 23:21:12	ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 bay1	Yes	SELL	1,522	100¢	$1,521	0x10b692…
04-15 17:32:56	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5,110	20¢	$1,000	0x24c804…
04-15 14:20:18	ucl ars spo1 2026 04 15 btts	Yes	BUY	1,020	49¢	$500	0x2dbd20…
04-15 14:20:08	ucl ars spo1 2026 04 15 ars	Yes	BUY	1,562	64¢	$1,000	0xaac29b…
04-15 14:20:02	ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 bay1	Yes	BUY	1,538	65¢	$1,000	0xc49547…
04-15 14:02:22	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	No	SELL	1,339	83¢	$1,111	0xbab4b3…
04-15 14:02:14	will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	No	SELL	1,188	85¢	$1,010	0x89b631…
04-15 14:02:08	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	SELL	2,008	88¢	$1,759	0x54bef9…
04-15 14:01:26	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3,598	35¢	$1,243	0x4b510f…
04-15 14:01:00	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	31	30¢	$9	0x78d465…
04-14 21:48:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,455	55¢	$800	0x133f47…
04-14 21:26:50	will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	No	SELL	826	82¢	$678	0x0aee7c…
04-14 21:26:36	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	No	SELL	856	82¢	$702	0x021a02…
04-14 21:26:06	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	783	64¢	$500	0x8be769…
04-14 21:25:22	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3,152	63¢	$2,000	0xdc35f9…
04-14 20:32:30	ucl liv1 psg1 2026 04 14 psg1	Yes	SELL	955	23¢	$220	0x05493d…
04-14 19:13:42	ucl atm1 fcb1 2026 04 14 spread away 1pt5	FC Barcelona	BUY	322	52¢	$167	0x2bfbc0…
04-14 19:08:56	ucl liv1 psg1 2026 04 14 psg1	Yes	BUY	256	39¢	$100	0x90cc72…
04-14 19:07:34	ucl liv1 psg1 2026 04 14 psg1	Yes	BUY	716	42¢	$300	0xf41c56…
04-14 15:50:11	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,428	70¢	$1,000	0x39109c…
04-14 15:45:19	will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	No	SELL	601	77¢	$464	0x2ffde3…
04-14 15:45:03	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	SELL	441	80¢	$353	0xb6ddb4…
04-14 15:44:51	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	SELL	994	66¢	$656	0x7703d5…
04-14 15:44:23	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	Yes	SELL	917	26¢	$238	0xf6cd31…
04-14 15:42:35	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	SELL	303	80¢	$243	0x9d89ff…
04-14 15:42:15	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	No	SELL	1,033	80¢	$821	0x3ae0a0…
04-13 16:54:35	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	BUY	857	58¢	$500	0x3e7ad1…
04-13 16:52:53	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	BUY	864	58¢	$500	0x869b06…
04-13 16:47:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	1,190	85¢	$1,006	0xd0604b…
04-13 16:45:39	will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	No	BUY	792	63¢	$500	0xeaf486…
04-13 12:48:03	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	No	BUY	2,004	50¢	$1,000	0x71668e…
04-12 19:39:25	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	582	90¢	$524	0x89c1b6…
04-12 16:42:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,392	9¢	$499	0xa7038d…
04-12 16:42:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,128	27¢	$845	0xab96d2…
04-12 14:27:53	atp alcaraz sinner 2026 04 12	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	2,083	24¢	$500	0x76cbb7…
04-12 14:24:33	atp alcaraz sinner 2026 04 12	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	1,786	28¢	$500	0x8d7f42…
04-12 14:23:43	atp alcaraz sinner 2026 04 12	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	1,555	32¢	$500	0x4deaf7…
04-12 14:06:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	BUY	1,408	71¢	$1,000	0xde80c3…
04-12 13:32:15	atp alcaraz sinner 2026 04 12 match total 22pt5	Over	BUY	855	58¢	$500	0xc80c5b…
04-12 13:28:07	atp alcaraz sinner 2026 04 12	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	1,064	47¢	$500	0x330d6e…
04-12 13:26:53	atp alcaraz sinner 2026 04 12	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	980	51¢	$500	0x6bbb52…
04-12 13:10:39	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	SELL	862	57¢	$491	0x1b3b06…
04-12 13:08:27	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1,834	45¢	$816	0x30e761…
04-12 12:56:07	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,516	56¢	$850	0xceff36…
04-12 00:13:37	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	253	80¢	$203	0x59bd47…
04-11 22:48:53	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	309	84¢	$260	0x048c35…
04-11 15:05:17	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	No	SELL	603	74¢	$446	0x2fe7ff…
04-11 15:04:53	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1,023	75¢	$768	0x3d7e61…
04-10 13:14:49	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,392	13¢	$700	0x395467…
04-10 13:08:01	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,784	59¢	$1,052	0x15ef5d…
04-10 12:59:37	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,649	61¢	$1,000	0x26451a…
04-10 12:59:09	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,128	32¢	$1,000	0xbbdc4a…
04-10 12:47:01	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	216	59¢	$128	0x91136e…
04-10 12:09:57	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x64498f…
04-10 12:00:41	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,296	86¢	$1,117	0x964945…
04-10 11:44:27	JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1,235	92¢	$1,138	0x63f011…
04-10 11:27:23	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	184	76¢	$140	0x097ac7…
04-10 11:25:25	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xbff520…
04-10 11:25:23	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x432b45…
04-10 11:25:21	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xf1350c…
04-10 11:25:21	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xd6c50f…
04-10 11:25:19	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x6bf99f…
04-10 11:25:19	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x5a01a8…
04-10 11:25:17	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x23495d…
04-10 11:25:17	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x177c2b…
04-10 11:25:15	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x496a70…
04-10 11:25:13	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xca9d36…
04-10 11:25:13	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x22fc9f…
04-10 11:25:11	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x7e9a0e…
04-10 11:25:11	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x0005b8…
04-10 11:25:09	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xcb0eb6…
04-10 11:25:07	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xe7ab89…
04-10 11:25:05	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xaf2492…
04-10 11:25:05	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x7f59e1…
04-10 11:25:05	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x12477a…
04-10 11:25:03	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x6171a5…
04-10 11:25:01	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xc26a98…
04-10 11:25:01	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x0004e9…
04-10 11:24:59	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xcfcee5…
04-10 11:24:57	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xcfa0d9…
04-10 11:24:57	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x186e29…
04-10 11:24:55	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xe6465a…
04-10 11:24:55	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x4c33e6…
04-10 11:24:53	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xfb0b9f…
04-10 11:24:53	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x81d5b9…
04-10 11:24:51	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xb0e474…
04-10 11:24:49	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xd79b28…
04-10 11:24:49	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x17a0bc…
04-10 11:24:11	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	382	76¢	$290	0xfc4c66…
04-10 11:22:21	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	No	SELL	28	76¢	$22	0x157aa3…
04-09 12:34:19	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	221	62¢	$136	0x8a6c16…
04-09 12:33:43	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,570	62¢	$976	0xa0935b…
04-09 12:33:15	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2,914	66¢	$1,923	0x7906a9…
04-09 11:57:23	will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	No	BUY	735	68¢	$500	0xf9a749…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	70	$646.8K	45,081	06-08 22:47
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	64	$985.0K	18,218	06-09 16:39
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	58	$19.8M	30,265	06-09 20:19
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	58	$391.1K	29,570	05-01 05:50
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	56	$144.3K	981	06-08 20:20
Fragrant-Dandelion 0x1408…b4f8	56	$66.5K	14,417	05-06 08:25
Improbable-Entry 0x7e80…631b	55	$71.9K	1,505	06-09 20:25
Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a	54	$687.3K	7,078	05-30 15:09