Immaterial-Prohibition — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

88.1%

Resolved

114

Trades

1,343

lifetime

Volume

$10.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-24

last 06-06 22:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 89% $-3

Other

2% — —

Politics

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 166 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes		-26	$-4	0¢	$-0	+$4	06-06 22:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 15m 1774655100	2	$124	65	64	+0	open	—	03-28 00:00
bitcoin above 66k on march 27	2	$123	63	63	+0	open	—	03-27 16:46
btc updown 15m 1774645200	2	$121	61	61	+0	open	—	03-27 21:15
btc updown 15m 1774638900	2	$101	51	51	+0	open	—	03-27 19:30
ethereum up or down march 27 2026 2pm et	2	$100	51	50	+0	open	—	03-27 19:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6PM ET	2	$100	50	50	+0	Up	+$0	05-07 23:03
btc updown 15m 1774656900	2	$81	42	42	+0	open	—	03-28 00:30
btc updown 5m 1774652700	2	$80	41	41	+0	open	—	03-27 23:10
btc updown 15m 1774648800	2	$80	40	40	+0	open	—	03-27 22:15
trump declassifies new ufo files by april 30	2	$77	84	0	+84	open	—	04-04 15:06
btc updown 15m 1775339100	1	$70	71	0	+71	open	—	04-04 21:59
btc updown 5m 1775339400	1	$60	70	0	+70	open	—	04-04 21:54
btc updown 5m 1775336700	1	$56	58	0	+58	open	—	04-04 21:09
trump declassifies new ufo files by march 31	2	$55	59	0	+59	open	—	03-26 13:49
bitcoin up or down march 31 2026 12pm et	1	$50	50	0	+50	open	—	03-31 16:51
btc updown 5m 1775337300	1	$50	51	0	+51	open	—	04-04 21:19
btc updown 5m 1775339100	1	$50	51	0	+51	open	—	04-04 21:49
btc updown 5m 1776030000	1	$50	51	0	+51	open	—	04-12 21:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	1	$50	50	0	+50	Up	+$0	05-11 11:24
btc updown 4h 1774972800	2	$42	42	0	+42	open	—	03-31 19:24
bitcoin up or down march 29 2026 7am et	2	$41	21	21	+0	open	—	03-29 13:45
btc updown 15m 1776040200	1	$41	43	0	+43	open	—	04-13 00:41
bitcoin up or down march 28 2026 11am et	2	$41	21	21	+0	open	—	03-28 16:00
bitcoin up or down march 28 2026 7am et	2	$41	21	21	+0	open	—	03-28 12:03
bitcoin above 66k on march 28	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	03-28 16:00
btc updown 15m 1774647000	2	$40	21	21	+0	open	—	03-27 21:45
bitcoin up or down march 28 2026 9am et	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	03-28 14:12
btc updown 4h 1774684800	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	03-28 12:01
btc updown 4h 1774699200	2	$40	21	21	+0	open	—	03-28 15:05
btc updown 4h 1774728000	1	$40	41	0	+41	open	—	03-28 23:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-06 22:11:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	26	14¢	$4	0xa08c0e…
05-24 02:36:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24?	No	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xb7bb8e…
05-22 22:23:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	28	89¢	$25	0xf21c60…
05-22 22:22:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0xd6cf0b…
05-22 02:53:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x8ae211…
05-13 21:09:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe7b125…
05-11 23:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x324055…
05-11 23:09:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xb2547e…
05-11 11:24:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x0e4a4c…
05-10 17:54:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x7a641d…
05-10 16:55:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xeec24d…
05-10 15:55:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x92900b…
05-10 14:55:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x8d9882…
05-10 14:10:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0xd79c4f…
05-10 13:28:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd5d878…
05-09 21:41:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xa01281…
05-09 21:25:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x3abd92…
05-08 15:26:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x00dea8…
05-08 00:42:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x8b0853…
05-07 23:52:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0xcd3240…
05-07 23:12:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x36a218…
05-07 23:03:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6PM ET	Up	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xbd9780…
05-07 22:57:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x5f64ff…
05-07 22:56:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xbd4d73…
05-07 22:46:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8?	Yes	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0x77f330…
05-07 22:19:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe6d57b…
05-07 22:04:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x580775…
05-07 21:59:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x71f07f…
05-07 21:54:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x0130a6…
05-07 21:49:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xc6047c…
05-07 21:44:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x9d8b57…
05-07 21:39:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xffe644…
05-07 21:34:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xd80cf6…
05-07 20:14:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe37bcd…
05-07 19:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x14a2b8…
05-06 15:49:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xeb0f42…
05-06 15:49:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xba874f…
05-06 15:44:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xdaf565…
05-06 15:34:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x2bfd23…
05-06 15:34:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x208017…
05-06 13:54:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xf52e64…
05-06 13:54:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x042c82…
05-06 06:20:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x82eb94…
05-06 06:19:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x3d0428…
05-06 05:49:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x0f8f86…
05-06 05:44:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x49aad4…
05-06 05:39:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6d8f7a…
05-06 05:34:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xbe632d…
05-06 05:24:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xb2e96d…
05-06 02:49:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x8972dd…
05-06 02:19:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x098b78…
05-05 23:19:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe282da…
05-05 22:29:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2a9262…
05-05 21:59:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xa251fa…
05-05 21:54:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd12cc1…
05-05 21:04:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x25ac28…
05-05 20:49:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x727b75…
05-05 20:34:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x71590c…
05-05 20:19:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x9a0d69…
05-05 20:14:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xa1a29f…
05-05 19:09:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xf93b8e…
05-05 18:09:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf0354a…
05-05 17:29:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x471965…
05-05 16:29:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xc79c56…
05-05 15:54:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xee2911…
05-05 15:24:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xdac4ae…
05-05 14:09:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x09799a…
05-05 13:55:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xbc217e…
05-05 12:09:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xe27be6…
05-05 11:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x815a0c…
05-05 11:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x4bb9b1…
05-05 10:59:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xcea502…
05-05 10:54:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6920f0…
05-05 10:39:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x458fe8…
05-05 09:59:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x84125f…
05-05 09:59:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x3bff7e…
05-05 08:49:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x1e0aa5…
05-05 08:39:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xbe6037…
05-05 08:34:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x6d7303…
05-05 08:34:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb5b6e8…
05-05 08:09:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x9d1be9…
05-05 07:54:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x415543…
05-05 07:44:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x12f18b…
05-05 07:24:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x40e594…
05-05 06:45:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	SELL	5	10¢	$1	0x5a379e…
05-05 06:44:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x4c714a…
05-05 06:19:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xce1925…
05-05 05:49:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x35ac02…
05-05 05:04:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x7ce05b…
05-05 04:49:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x4ed50b…
05-05 04:39:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x5261a0…
05-05 04:19:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe03bc4…
05-05 03:40:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3cfa3b…
05-05 03:14:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7699d3…
05-05 03:04:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x583581…
05-05 02:09:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xed8195…
05-05 01:54:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	12	70¢	$8	0x50cbbb…
05-05 01:45:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	12	6¢	$1	0xfd6cb4…
05-05 01:44:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	12	89¢	$11	0x2c60bf…
05-05 01:24:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x315ecb…