Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$15.3K

Unrealized P&L

+$174

Hit rate

82.5%

Resolved

155

Trades

1,095

lifetime

Volume

$57.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$52

Open exposure

$1.48K

1 position

First seen

2026-02-02

last 11-01 17:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 59 days

Categories

Other

57% 67% +$5,883

Tech

42% 83% +$9,504

Politics

1% 0% -$26

Crypto

0% 0% -$35

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

67 active days in 12wk • peak 161 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes		+2,092	$1,301	70¢	$1.5K	+$174	10-31 14:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	4	$2.9K	2,125	2,125	+0	Yes	+$97	10-16 03:03
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	5	$2.7K	2,050	2,050	+0	No	+$195	10-16 03:40
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	15	$2.6K	1,553	1,553	+0	Yes	+$202	07-31 16:44
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?	11	$1.8K	2,071	2,071	+0	No	-$27	07-30 06:02
Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	1	$1.6K	2,277	0	+2,277	Yes	+$672	10-21 23:04
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	12	$1.5K	2,265	2,265	+0	Yes	-$292	04-24 03:16
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	2	$1.3K	2,092	0	+2,092	open	—	10-31 14:44
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?	11	$1.2K	1,340	665	+675	Yes	+$625	09-21 06:47
Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	5	$1.2K	1,970	919	+1,051	No	-$687	10-27 01:29
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	3	$1.2K	1,537	0	+1,537	Yes	+$372	09-26 16:15
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	2	$1.1K	3,110	0	+3,110	No	+$578	10-28 17:06
Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	4	$1.0K	1,985	378	+1,608	Yes	+$265	10-16 04:47
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in July?	9	$984	1,568	1,568	+0	No	+$79	07-26 18:05
deepseek v4 released by april 24	4	$958	598	598	+0	Yes	+$67	04-24 04:35
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	7	$861	1,137	1,001	+136	Yes	+$343	10-23 05:50
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?	4	$803	568	460	+107	No	+$161	09-25 22:05
another critical cloudflare incident by april 30 2026	11	$796	698	698	+0	Yes	+$78	04-29 08:28
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	6	$790	733	733	+0	open	—	10-01 18:03
Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?	5	$776	625	386	+239	Yes	+$179	08-16 14:08
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	3	$737	960	350	+610	Yes	+$258	08-19 20:02
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	1	$698	2,094	0	+2,094	No	+$1,395	10-22 23:29
Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	20	$687	619	419	+200	Yes	+$54	09-21 21:18
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?	3	$681	663	315	+348	Yes	+$280	09-23 03:52
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	16	$668	583	365	+217	No	+$251	06-28 08:50
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	2	$645	447	447	+0	Yes	+$45	08-22 01:22
Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	6	$639	856	0	+856	Yes	+$197	10-16 07:00
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	2	$639	1,140	0	+1,140	Yes	+$502	10-25 06:14
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	6	$610	944	944	+0	No	+$387	09-26 03:37
Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	1	$594	1,178	0	+1,178	Yes	+$584	09-27 00:55
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?	2	$588	500	500	+0	No	+$338	09-07 12:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 17:06:22	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xfc663b…
11-01 17:00:31	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3b4f79…
10-31 14:44:10	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	273	62¢	$168	0x1bb25b…
10-31 14:37:00	Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	0¢	$0	0x2bd16b…
10-31 14:36:55	Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	150	1¢	$1	0x9c7496…
10-31 14:36:25	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	382	1¢	$2	0x865791…
10-28 17:29:58	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	221	48¢	$106	0x4b263f…
10-28 17:26:55	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,819	62¢	$1,133	0xe0ebd3…
10-28 17:12:22	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	57	10¢	$6	0x7c0acc…
10-28 17:11:43	Will Google be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	48¢	$35	0x26cc70…
10-28 17:09:07	Will any other model be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	72¢	$61	0x239b59…
10-28 17:08:56	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	246	71¢	$175	0x431495…
10-28 17:07:55	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	216	32¢	$69	0x057410…
10-28 17:06:23	Will Google be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	169	11¢	$19	0xdea110…
10-28 17:06:23	Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	1,720	11¢	$185	0xc0842a…
10-28 17:06:23	Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,452	17¢	$241	0xa3e08e…
10-28 17:06:23	Will any other model be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	136	38¢	$51	0xa08d0a…
10-28 17:06:22	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	71	42¢	$30	0xfa74c2…
10-28 17:06:22	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	91	19¢	$17	0xb1523f…
10-28 17:06:22	Will any other model be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	21¢	$10	0x29a496…
10-28 17:06:22	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	22	30¢	$7	0x0e387c…
10-28 16:39:47	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	203	11¢	$22	0xc12aba…
10-27 04:03:50	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x79fba0…
10-27 04:03:47	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xfde971…
10-27 04:03:47	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	193	45¢	$87	0xc1697a…
10-27 04:03:47	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0x827944…
10-27 04:03:47	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0x6989ca…
10-27 01:29:26	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	919	0¢	$4	0x68bfca…
10-25 13:38:20	Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	58¢	$17	0x64814c…
10-25 06:14:21	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	820	61¢	$500	0xeafcdb…
10-25 06:14:21	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	BUY	525	71¢	$374	0x2b44de…
10-24 13:23:29	Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	No	SELL	132	99¢	$131	0x9f8171…
10-23 05:50:00	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	862	51¢	$439	0x81554f…
10-23 01:08:44	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	BUY	679	72¢	$490	0xf2dc8c…
10-22 23:29:20	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	2,094	33¢	$698	0x481d1b…
10-22 15:52:14	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	139	68¢	$95	0x0b7ea9…
10-21 23:04:53	Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	No	BUY	132	76¢	$101	0xda1a33…
10-21 23:04:53	Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,277	70¢	$1,605	0xc42270…
10-21 19:18:57	Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x321cd1…
10-21 19:15:56	Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xce8372…
10-21 19:15:56	Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	150	28¢	$42	0x0ea1b8…
10-21 19:13:05	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	30¢	$8	0x1fd823…
10-21 13:13:12	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	BUY	446	64¢	$287	0x6e5f50…
10-21 11:16:50	Will any other model be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	223	12¢	$27	0xaf74fc…
10-20 03:20:47	Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	205	15¢	$32	0x4c16ff…
10-20 03:20:45	Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	45¢	$33	0xe02d54…
10-20 03:20:45	Another critical Cloudflare incident by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	38¢	$33	0x858495…
10-19 23:01:03	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	461	55¢	$256	0xe90d42…
10-19 22:40:26	Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,390	69¢	$956	0xc5a758…
10-19 07:14:23	Will any other model be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	316	23¢	$73	0xd3139c…
10-16 15:16:10	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	28¢	$11	0x627c90…
10-16 07:00:24	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	204	80¢	$164	0xa02b6e…
10-16 04:59:25	Will any other model be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	175	26¢	$46	0xb41ff0…
10-16 04:55:21	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	407	69¢	$281	0xc975d3…
10-16 04:55:21	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x51dfae…
10-16 04:47:09	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	440	63¢	$276	0x902fdd…
10-16 03:40:27	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	1,025	69¢	$709	0x1c14be…
10-16 03:15:10	Will any other model be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	270	19¢	$51	0x3c4f83…
10-16 03:11:51	Will any other model be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	265	25¢	$65	0xd33143…
10-16 03:11:34	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	378	33¢	$126	0xa966f6…
10-16 03:03:55	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,125	70¢	$1,477	0x49f7ba…
10-16 02:59:04	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	962	26¢	$250	0xda41f1…
10-16 02:59:04	Will any other model be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,249	20¢	$250	0xd1b410…
10-15 18:54:47	Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	178	42¢	$75	0x24fa26…
10-15 18:49:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	1,025	71¢	$728	0x61e393…
10-15 18:35:23	Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	445	1¢	$4	0xa6151f…
10-15 18:31:31	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	320	43¢	$139	0xf9dea0…
10-15 18:31:31	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?	No	BUY	152	71¢	$108	0x48bbab…
10-15 18:31:31	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	BUY	320	20¢	$65	0x2d2c9b…
10-13 20:39:57	Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	234	99¢	$231	0x46d621…
10-13 19:03:46	Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	52	63¢	$33	0xa66883…
10-13 18:54:22	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	24	95¢	$23	0x82e782…
10-13 18:54:04	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	6	74¢	$4	0x2b3e96…
10-13 18:39:54	Will Meta's Watermelon model debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	471	55¢	$257	0xf8d38b…
10-13 18:39:54	Will Meta's Watermelon model debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	731	69¢	$507	0xf7d882…
10-13 18:39:52	Will Meta's Watermelon model debut at a score of at least 1505 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	330	71¢	$233	0x7d07f5…
10-13 18:39:42	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	176	36¢	$64	0xc1d8a4…
10-13 18:39:40	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	24	40¢	$10	0xd930cb…
10-13 18:39:40	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	161	42¢	$68	0x4efae8…
10-13 18:39:40	Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	230	38¢	$88	0x333f06…
10-13 15:53:10	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x407db5…
10-13 15:20:35	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xaa0341…
10-13 15:02:26	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	584	61¢	$358	0xb348e9…
10-11 17:14:36	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0x8fb12e…
10-11 08:36:33	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x9960e9…
10-11 08:36:31	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	166	84¢	$139	0xdca3d0…
10-11 08:24:28	Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	Yes	SELL	45	6¢	$3	0x47f031…
10-11 08:24:18	Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$5	0x2244ed…
10-10 11:51:10	Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x6c3953…
10-10 11:46:06	Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	Yes	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0x2cc1be…
10-10 11:45:54	Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xcac3cf…
10-10 11:45:46	Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xca09f1…
10-08 07:10:11	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf84a00…
10-08 07:09:22	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x104db8…
10-08 06:20:52	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x05e3c5…
10-08 06:20:07	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb0f88a…
10-08 01:57:22	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	245	35¢	$87	0x0e363b…
10-06 08:55:07	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	25¢	$40	0x030ebf…
10-04 19:19:49	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	No	SELL	40	7¢	$3	0x7cfe86…
10-04 15:27:17	Will Google have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	Yes	SELL	60	14¢	$8	0x9828d5…