Webbed-Fallacy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$986

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

60.0%

Resolved

3,225

Trades

4,344

lifetime

Volume

$21.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-31

last 10-30 19:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 134 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 56% -$912

Other

2% 26% -$53

Sports

0% 16% -$22

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

79 active days in 12wk • peak 116 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	8	$48	229	197	+32	Up	+$8	10-08 21:23
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-25 13:45 UTC	6	$39	59	39	+20	Up	-$5	09-25 13:55
Will Georgia vs. Romania end in a draw?	17	$39	55	45	+10	Yes	+$4	06-02 18:48
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-19 22:30 UTC	5	$36	44	36	+8	Up	+$12	06-19 22:41
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	4	$33	24	24	+0	Up	+$9	10-30 16:07
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 20:10 UTC	2	$33	24	24	+0	Down	-$7	10-13 20:14
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 17:20 UTC	4	$32	26	19	+7	Up	+$9	10-16 17:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 17:25 UTC	2	$32	24	24	+0	Down	-$8	10-13 17:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 22:45 UTC	2	$31	24	24	+0	Up	-$9	10-13 22:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 20:25 UTC	2	$30	25	25	+0	Up	-$10	10-13 20:28
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02?	10	$30	35	23	+13	No	-$5	06-02 18:47
Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	3	$30	56	0	+56	Up	+$26	10-07 13:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 22:40 UTC	2	$29	25	25	+0	Up	-$11	10-13 22:43
Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	4	$29	57	0	+57	Down	-$29	10-08 16:01
Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	3	$29	87	80	+7	Down	-$8	10-08 22:14
Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	2	$29	94	94	+0	Up	+$11	10-08 16:37
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-20 15:15 UTC	7	$28	24	9	+15	Up	+$3	06-20 15:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-19 22:45 UTC	4	$28	22	19	+3	Down	+$4	06-19 22:58
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-25 13:00 UTC	5	$28	55	0	+55	Down	-$28	09-25 12:59
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-25 14:15 UTC	2	$26	39	39	+0	Down	-$14	09-25 14:27
Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	2	$25	40	40	+0	Down	-$15	09-21 01:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	2	$25	40	40	+0	Up	-$15	10-02 08:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	2	$24	37	37	+0	Down	-$16	10-02 14:37
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 22:00 UTC	4	$24	39	39	+0	Down	-$16	09-19 22:06
Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	2	$24	37	37	+0	Down	-$16	10-02 14:28
XRP Up or Down - September 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	8	$24	39	39	+0	Down	-$16	09-23 12:02
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-20 01:30 UTC	5	$24	40	40	+0	Down	-$16	09-20 01:43
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 22:15 UTC	2	$24	40	40	+0	Down	-$16	09-21 22:27
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-24 18:00 UTC	5	$24	38	38	+0	Up	-$16	09-24 18:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	2	$24	38	38	+0	Down	-$16	10-02 14:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 20:13:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x1dda2f…
10-30 19:29:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x960516…
10-30 19:13:22	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x2a1898…
10-30 18:44:01	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xc23c9b…
10-30 17:43:13	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xef44a6…
10-30 17:43:13	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x230635…
10-30 17:42:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x015532…
10-30 16:57:13	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x4b7f6b…
10-30 16:57:13	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x280ce7…
10-30 16:42:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x16fdb4…
10-30 16:07:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	SELL	24	89¢	$21	0xdbf476…
10-30 16:04:43	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x5ab91e…
10-30 16:02:25	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	SELL	12	29¢	$4	0xeff680…
10-30 16:02:10	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x239b6b…
10-30 16:02:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x858391…
10-30 16:00:45	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xc58ae0…
10-30 15:57:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xb2e5d7…
10-30 15:56:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x23bf3f…
10-30 15:54:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0xa76d07…
10-30 15:53:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xd58d6c…
10-30 15:38:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x6f640c…
10-30 15:29:30	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xe0dfd8…
10-30 15:24:45	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x4a6999…
10-30 15:23:55	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x35a7bb…
10-30 14:58:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x582ce8…
10-30 14:28:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xf5d629…
10-30 11:18:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xfd2817…
10-30 11:08:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x304659…
10-30 10:08:31	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xc3f4b1…
10-30 09:59:37	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	SELL	12	85¢	$10	0x14bc1b…
10-30 09:58:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xfcf509…
10-30 09:18:13	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x40e868…
10-30 08:43:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x47b118…
10-30 08:18:10	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xe557ae…
10-30 07:57:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xb93f79…
10-30 07:27:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x524501…
10-30 07:03:28	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xc173f5…
10-30 06:42:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xdeadd6…
10-30 05:08:10	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x3d7d5f…
10-30 04:57:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x92f330…
10-30 04:53:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xd47ca2…
10-30 04:49:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0x100c69…
10-30 04:48:37	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x1e1147…
10-30 04:43:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xacac6d…
10-30 04:09:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	SELL	10	85¢	$8	0x42fbcd…
10-30 04:08:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xdabdcb…
10-30 03:19:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0x3f4cac…
10-30 03:18:16	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x80c850…
10-30 02:58:34	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	SELL	9	88¢	$8	0x693cd8…
10-30 02:58:22	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x5d2488…
10-30 01:38:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x00d590…
10-30 01:12:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x7c78d5…
10-30 00:48:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x7a2dd1…
10-30 00:42:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x34322c…
10-30 00:42:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x88a227…
10-30 00:33:31	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x0ea7b1…
10-30 00:12:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x7e8597…
10-29 23:27:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x846718…
10-29 23:18:45	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0xdc2d68…
10-29 23:18:34	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x1f78b2…
10-29 22:58:40	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	SELL	8	87¢	$7	0xfc74bc…
10-29 22:58:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xc6677d…
10-29 22:57:37	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x0a665a…
10-29 22:28:40	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x6004c2…
10-29 22:28:13	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xbbb94f…
10-29 22:12:07	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xf8a889…
10-29 21:44:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xa658e5…
10-29 21:43:34	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x52f2c2…
10-29 21:41:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x2aacbf…
10-29 21:35:19	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x335d07…
10-29 21:27:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xd8182f…
10-29 21:26:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x9611ae…
10-29 20:59:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x760168…
10-29 20:57:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xd453d2…
10-29 20:53:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x654243…
10-29 19:12:16	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x48a0fa…
10-29 16:42:13	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x470033…
10-29 16:29:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x7ca9f2…
10-29 16:28:28	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xfbd268…
10-29 16:23:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xcb63df…
10-29 16:14:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x27e5c6…
10-29 14:57:07	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x327a8b…
10-29 14:27:34	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x8f3213…
10-29 14:18:16	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x7af8c3…
10-29 14:13:25	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xf763eb…
10-29 14:12:55	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x934e36…
10-29 14:08:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x3d36ce…
10-29 13:23:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x9da5e4…
10-29 13:18:13	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x91cc87…
10-29 12:57:10	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x923235…
10-29 12:43:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x0b7d2c…
10-29 12:42:22	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x8e8793…
10-29 12:29:25	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	SELL	13	90¢	$12	0x93a1d6…
10-29 12:28:22	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x3fc27b…
10-29 12:28:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xb3c2ae…
10-29 12:23:16	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x4976ec…
10-29 12:23:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x4600e2…
10-29 12:08:32	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xd399d4…
10-29 11:57:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x6f5cb6…
10-29 11:54:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	SELL	9	87¢	$7	0xb9ccaa…