Bad-Occurrence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$114

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

58.0%

Resolved

913

Trades

5,323

lifetime

Volume

$12.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-10

last 10-26 08:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 28 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 51% +$117

Tech

1% 0% -$1

Other

0% 25% $0

Sports

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
5kt meteor strike in 2026?	No		+1	$0	88¢	$1	+$0	10-26 08:30
5kt meteor strike in 2026?	Yes		+1	$1	12¢	$0	-$1	10-26 08:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	26	$139	212	86	+126	Down	+$8	04-27 02:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	46	$77	158	0	+158	Up	+$2	04-27 15:44
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	36	$65	92	92	+0	Yes	-$1	03-30 03:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 11:25 UTC	11	$55	56	54	+2	Down	+$9	04-23 11:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	34	$54	110	0	+110	Down	+$1	04-27 15:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 04:35 UTC	14	$49	54	51	+2	Down	+$8	04-23 04:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 07:50 UTC	12	$45	55	53	+2	Down	+$2	04-22 07:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	27	$44	88	0	+88	Down	-$1	04-28 07:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	26	$43	64	33	+31	Down	-$10	04-27 05:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 07:00 UTC	16	$42	38	37	+1	Down	+$8	04-22 07:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 07:45 UTC	12	$41	47	45	+2	Down	+$7	04-22 07:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	18	$41	73	0	+73	Down	-$4	04-28 00:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	17	$40	47	31	+16	Down	+$6	05-01 03:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 08:00 UTC	10	$40	38	37	+1	Down	+$3	04-23 08:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 05:05 UTC	12	$39	40	39	+1	Down	$0	04-23 05:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 08:15 UTC	8	$39	41	39	+2	Down	+$3	04-23 08:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 10:00 UTC	10	$39	48	47	+2	Down	+$3	04-23 10:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-21 12:45 UTC	12	$38	28	27	+1	Down	+$1	04-21 12:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-21 14:10 UTC	14	$38	38	36	+1	Down	+$6	04-21 14:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-21 22:00 UTC	16	$38	38	37	+2	Down	+$11	04-21 22:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 04:50 UTC	13	$38	42	41	+2	Up	+$6	04-23 04:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	12	$38	40	40	+1	Up	+$5	04-27 02:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	22	$37	76	0	+76	Down	+$1	04-29 15:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 17:45 UTC	13	$37	28	27	+1	Up	+$3	04-23 17:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	14	$37	36	26	+10	Up	+$1	05-01 05:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 22:10 UTC	10	$37	28	27	+1	Down	+$1	04-23 22:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-21 23:05 UTC	10	$36	22	22	+0	Up	+$2	04-21 23:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 10:20 UTC	6	$36	32	31	+1	Up	+$7	04-23 10:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 06:45 UTC	8	$36	45	44	+1	Down	+$2	04-23 06:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	19	$35	36	36	+0	Up	+$8	05-01 02:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 08:30:20	5kt meteor strike in 2026?	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x077c7a…
10-26 08:30:11	5kt meteor strike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	7¢	$0	0x3aaff4…
06-09 07:59:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 07:55 UTC	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xce85de…
06-02 05:53:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xa97d14…
05-25 06:38:53	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xca8a3b…
05-25 06:37:10	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xac7c95…
05-25 06:32:12	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x9f5994…
05-25 06:21:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	20¢	$1	0x3e2001…
05-25 06:21:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0x2cc598…
05-25 06:04:51	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x6302ce…
05-25 05:51:52	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x839a7d…
05-16 07:02:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x5fc5d4…
05-14 07:53:55	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xb1468e…
05-14 07:53:15	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xc9a442…
05-14 07:52:36	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xeb59e8…
05-14 07:51:21	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x2fb750…
05-14 07:50:41	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xe83b35…
05-14 07:49:08	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xadd7f5…
05-01 05:37:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x7709fb…
05-01 05:37:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0x679651…
05-01 05:36:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x71149c…
05-01 05:36:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x8b277c…
05-01 05:35:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x870189…
05-01 05:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	54¢	$6	0x9774f6…
05-01 05:30:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xa3c8b1…
05-01 05:27:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x071d5a…
05-01 05:26:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x634ec1…
05-01 05:25:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	SELL	5	50¢	$3	0x31c486…
05-01 05:25:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	0	43¢	$0	0x776c5a…
05-01 05:25:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x0e28a0…
05-01 05:22:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0xc4d2f9…
05-01 05:20:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x037457…
05-01 05:20:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xdd7b9f…
05-01 05:20:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0xd9a12f…
05-01 05:20:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x96c9ab…
05-01 05:15:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x891b4f…
05-01 05:12:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xdeb1e6…
05-01 05:12:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	4	42¢	$2	0x44f202…
05-01 05:12:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	1	42¢	$0	0xc97bff…
05-01 05:12:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x853888…
05-01 05:11:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0x74a5ae…
05-01 05:11:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	5	50¢	$3	0xcd59dc…
05-01 05:11:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0xb4288e…
05-01 05:11:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x1f3fd7…
05-01 05:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x258eda…
05-01 05:10:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x1a6b7b…
05-01 05:08:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	93¢	$2	0x6e0eb0…
05-01 05:08:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	93¢	$2	0x27cae5…
05-01 05:05:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xadedfc…
05-01 05:05:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe69453…
05-01 05:04:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	SELL	3	88¢	$3	0xd50d33…
05-01 05:04:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x689bfd…
05-01 05:04:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x410f74…
05-01 05:03:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x2d806a…
05-01 05:02:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0x41d145…
05-01 05:02:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0xda199e…
05-01 05:02:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x35e42f…
05-01 05:02:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x1c0b88…
05-01 05:01:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	SELL	5	49¢	$3	0xd3d74e…
05-01 05:01:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x95d7bb…
05-01 05:01:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x34d43c…
05-01 05:01:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0x56ed9d…
05-01 05:00:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x8b7d56…
05-01 05:00:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x71f72f…
05-01 05:00:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0x2b361d…
05-01 04:58:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xf0e91e…
05-01 04:57:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0xd86948…
05-01 04:57:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0xd5c2fd…
05-01 04:57:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	SELL	3	60¢	$2	0x4f061b…
05-01 04:57:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x733790…
05-01 04:55:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x7a6530…
05-01 04:55:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	32¢	$1	0x57cf1f…
05-01 04:53:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xc44d52…
05-01 04:53:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x181576…
05-01 04:52:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	68¢	$4	0x4163a1…
05-01 04:51:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0x1f1e01…
05-01 04:50:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xf8a0a8…
05-01 04:45:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xdc6772…
05-01 04:45:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x6d2e56…
05-01 04:45:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x71decb…
05-01 04:40:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x2ca4e5…
05-01 04:40:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x61c60e…
05-01 04:40:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0x1a9634…
05-01 04:39:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$4	0x1edcf9…
05-01 04:37:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x0eec0c…
05-01 04:37:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0xb5537e…
05-01 04:36:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x606423…
05-01 04:36:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0x524429…
05-01 04:35:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x1f36cf…
05-01 04:33:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x0532a2…
05-01 04:30:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x40e058…
05-01 04:28:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xd69e2b…
05-01 04:28:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x833cc0…
05-01 04:28:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x76cc3f…
05-01 04:27:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0xb423c7…
05-01 04:27:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	SELL	3	48¢	$2	0x8ac0ce…
05-01 04:25:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x241062…
05-01 04:25:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x45713b…
05-01 04:25:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xc27281…
05-01 04:25:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xba582a…