Gorgeous-Pail — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$362

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

42.8%

Resolved

2,486

Trades

7,527

lifetime

Volume

$36.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-28 06:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 143 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 67% -$330

Other

5% 65% -$33

Tech

1% 0% -$4

Politics

0% 100% +$2

Sports

0% 33% +$3

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 63 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin up or down january 16 1pm et	113	$1.4K	1,364	1,332	+31	Down	-$82	01-16 19:01
bitcoin up or down january 16 12pm et	98	$1.3K	1,222	1,220	+2	Up	-$12	01-16 18:01
bitcoin up or down january 15 7pm et	106	$1.0K	780	779	+1	Up	-$20	01-16 01:46
bitcoin up or down january 15 11am et	184	$961	1,278	1,113	+165	Up	-$44	01-15 17:00
xrp up or down january 15 11am et	210	$936	964	883	+81	Down	+$22	01-15 16:59
ethereum up or down january 16 12pm et	87	$910	986	880	+106	Up	+$1	01-16 18:01
bitcoin up or down january 16 11am et	77	$769	1,003	893	+111	Up	-$59	01-16 17:07
xrp up or down january 16 12pm et	78	$753	614	585	+28	Up	-$25	01-16 18:01
solana up or down january 15 11am et	145	$709	730	676	+54	Up	-$38	01-15 16:59
ethereum up or down january 15 7pm et	93	$622	540	420	+120	Down	-$40	01-16 00:59
solana up or down january 16 12pm et	46	$591	508	508	+0	Up	-$21	01-16 18:01
ethereum up or down january 15 11am et	144	$588	866	609	+257	Up	+$46	01-15 17:00
ethereum up or down january 16 11am et	61	$546	612	536	+76	Up	-$20	01-16 17:08
xrp up or down january 16 1pm et	99	$545	615	541	+74	Down	-$24	01-16 19:01
solana up or down january 15 7pm et	85	$519	437	359	+78	Up	-$5	01-16 01:46
xrp up or down january 15 3pm et	114	$513	537	415	+121	Down	-$19	01-15 20:59
bitcoin up or down january 15 9pm et	48	$510	375	335	+40	Down	-$17	01-16 02:57
solana up or down january 15 8pm et	112	$503	481	448	+33	Down	-$4	01-16 02:08
solana up or down january 16 1pm et	45	$503	385	367	+17	Up	+$11	01-16 19:01
bitcoin up or down january 15 10am et	61	$496	486	337	+148	Up	+$22	01-15 16:10
solana up or down january 15 3pm et	111	$492	548	446	+102	Down	-$12	01-15 20:59
xrp up or down january 16 11am et	53	$484	357	402	-44	Up	+$11	01-16 17:07
ethereum up or down january 15 1pm et	79	$450	441	360	+81	Down	+$4	01-15 18:59
bitcoin up or down january 15 8pm et	67	$431	765	284	+480	Up	+$17	01-16 02:08
solana up or down january 15 6pm et	104	$431	441	364	+77	Up	-$24	01-16 00:00
xrp up or down january 15 8pm et	89	$425	323	329	-6	Down	+$4	01-16 02:08
ethereum up or down january 16 1pm et	51	$409	399	359	+39	Down	-$42	01-16 19:01
ethereum up or down january 15 8pm et	79	$356	351	319	+33	Down	-$24	01-16 02:09
solana up or down january 15 9pm et	74	$335	258	232	+26	Down	-$5	01-16 02:56
xrp up or down january 15 9pm et	63	$313	192	190	+2	Down	+$11	01-16 02:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 07:16:22	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	37¢	$5	0x2639be…
10-28 07:11:16	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0xa4d7f5…
10-28 07:01:49	Will RZP-Zehut be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0xa7c95f…
10-28 06:57:23	Will RZP-Zehut be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0xe261c3…
10-28 06:06:56	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0xe4452b…
10-28 05:36:37	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x17685d…
10-28 05:26:56	Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?	Yes	BUY	13	50¢	$6	0x0d4f32…
10-28 05:24:10	Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x38e1c3…
10-27 16:42:36	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,500,000 and 3,750,000?	Yes	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x9e9a0a…
10-27 16:42:11	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,500,000 and 3,750,000?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x868b1f…
10-27 15:15:42	Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?	No	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0xb5dcb4…
10-27 15:15:41	Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xbaf69f…
10-27 13:39:09	Will Amcha Yisrael win less than 2.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x14ed7b…
10-27 13:38:45	Will Amcha Yisrael win less than 2.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0xfd90ac…
10-27 13:12:38	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x2f5f5a…
10-27 13:12:08	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0xd710da…
10-27 12:06:59	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x735513…
10-27 12:06:57	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x4a54d2…
10-27 10:06:08	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0xb464a9…
10-27 10:05:35	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xcec59a…
10-26 01:43:50	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 7?	No	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x5d3ecd…
10-26 01:43:36	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 7?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x991fa6…
10-25 22:59:54	Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x0fcb5a…
10-25 22:59:51	Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x35a951…
10-25 19:11:33	Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	40¢	$2	0x8035b0…
10-25 19:11:03	Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	46¢	$6	0x8aea49…
10-25 19:10:27	Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xf85c1a…
10-25 17:46:12	Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 7?	No	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x34b90b…
10-25 17:45:50	Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 7?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x778ef0…
10-25 17:15:15	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x43f957…
10-25 16:18:15	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xc40c4d…
10-25 14:59:08	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	9	30¢	$3	0xcc52e7…
10-25 14:58:35	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	9	37¢	$3	0xd0c913…
10-25 13:21:47	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x0bdcd6…
10-25 13:21:27	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x1806d3…
10-25 07:03:27	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in October 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%?	No	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0xd7c817…
10-25 07:03:08	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in October 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xe632c8…
10-25 06:50:18	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	No	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0x1fbc2a…
10-25 06:50:02	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x1be7f2…
10-25 04:55:32	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0xbdf630…
10-25 04:55:08	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x0f0a22…
10-25 03:45:00	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?	No	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0xcd49cc…
10-25 02:23:47	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xb2aba8…
10-24 22:54:36	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	No	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0x1bbbee…
10-24 22:54:14	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0xa62275…
10-24 22:54:14	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	No	BUY	0	58¢	$0	0x06ca96…
10-24 21:53:20	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?	No	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0xa16165…
10-24 21:52:09	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?	No	BUY	14	54¢	$7	0xbd866f…
10-24 21:52:09	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?	No	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x7869a4…
10-24 18:37:12	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x01874c…
10-24 18:36:42	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x806b2d…
10-24 15:37:45	Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	25¢	$1	0x01db0d…
10-24 15:37:42	Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x580f74…
10-24 15:05:17	Will "Below: Limited Series" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	Yes	SELL	11	20¢	$2	0x033d74…
10-24 15:05:11	Will "Below: Limited Series" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	Yes	SELL	11	21¢	$2	0xb0164d…
10-24 15:04:24	Will "Below: Limited Series" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	Yes	SELL	17	28¢	$5	0x9617d8…
10-24 14:56:00	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	22	38¢	$8	0x043a2d…
10-24 14:55:59	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x0d3190…
10-24 14:55:56	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 7?	Yes	SELL	19	49¢	$9	0x3e8364…
10-24 14:54:54	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 7?	Yes	SELL	1	60¢	$1	0xd8a506…
10-24 14:30:38	Will "Below: Limited Series" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xcdbdc4…
10-24 14:30:38	Will "Below: Limited Series" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x828998…
10-24 14:07:17	Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x88302e…
10-24 13:49:47	Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	No	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x76dcfd…
10-24 13:49:05	Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	No	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x827830…
10-24 13:48:53	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0xb2b704…
10-24 13:26:09	Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	No	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x73078b…
10-24 13:19:53	Will "Below: Limited Series" be the top global Netflix show this week?	Yes	SELL	7	59¢	$4	0x498b6d…
10-24 13:19:17	Will "Below: Limited Series" be the top global Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x65dec6…
10-24 13:17:03	Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x079d6c…
10-24 12:41:00	Will "Animals" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0x2edf0e…
10-24 12:40:57	Will "Animals" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x60955b…
10-24 12:18:18	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 7?	Yes	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x4e4c35…
10-24 12:02:50	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0xe1a0d5…
10-24 12:02:48	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x425199…
10-24 12:02:20	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x9175b8…
10-24 11:44:26	Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Yes	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0xe4d7a8…
10-24 11:44:24	Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x7dc122…
10-24 11:33:41	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.0 on October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	12	19¢	$2	0x72a222…
10-24 11:17:14	Will "Animals" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	No	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x5de278…
10-24 10:48:48	Will "Animals" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0x663441…
10-24 10:48:42	Will "Animals" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x294da6…
10-24 10:48:42	Will "Animals" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x1a3568…
10-24 10:19:12	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.0 on October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	20¢	$2	0x591f47…
10-24 10:19:06	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.75 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	54¢	$6	0xa3b5a6…
10-24 09:12:36	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	No	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0xf32015…
10-24 09:05:33	Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $125M and $150M by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x2f7239…
10-24 09:00:20	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xc767a0…
10-24 08:57:00	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	18	28¢	$5	0xe34d83…
10-24 08:54:53	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0x8589a8…
10-24 08:54:51	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x89fe68…
10-24 08:51:53	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.75 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	56¢	$4	0x1050a0…
10-24 08:51:48	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.75 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x8246d4…
10-24 08:42:36	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	No	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0x059da3…
10-24 08:42:33	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xd7083d…
10-24 07:51:11	Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $125M and $150M by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xdbb269…
10-24 07:25:21	Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate final round by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	0	26¢	$0	0xa57787…
10-24 07:18:27	Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate final round by 0%-3%?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0xc846a8…
10-24 07:18:26	Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate final round by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xb102e4…
10-24 06:54:03	Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xa72e57…