Pessimistic-Contention — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$42

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

44.7%

Resolved

134

Trades

2,512

lifetime

Volume

$7.62K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-22

last 05-18 18:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 45% $-42

Other

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 544 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	40	$279	275	275	+0	open	—	05-14 20:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	21	$166	163	163	+0	open	—	05-14 19:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	11	$131	105	120	-15	Up	+$18	05-06 14:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	25	$125	145	145	+0	Down	$-3	05-07 19:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	11	$105	100	100	+0	open	—	05-14 19:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	37	$101	201	0	+201	Up	+$1	05-07 20:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	15	$98	100	100	+0	open	—	05-14 18:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	16	$92	85	85	+0	Down	$-2	05-07 17:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	18	$87	85	85	+0	Up	$-7	05-06 17:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	28	$85	162	0	+162	Up	+$3	05-06 08:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	18	$84	86	86	+0	Up	+$1	05-07 15:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	26	$70	130	0	+130	Up	$-2	05-06 10:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	22	$69	116	0	+116	Up	$-9	05-07 19:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	17	$66	75	35	+40	Up	+$3	05-07 17:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	19	$66	114	0	+114	Up	+$3	05-05 18:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	10	$65	125	0	+125	open	—	05-14 20:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	27	$65	132	0	+132	open	—	05-14 20:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	13	$64	130	0	+130	Up	+$16	05-05 16:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	26	$61	120	0	+120	Down	$-1	05-07 20:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	16	$59	110	0	+110	open	—	05-18 16:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	24	$56	125	0	+125	Up	+$4	05-11 18:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	22	$56	127	0	+127	Down	+$3	05-07 19:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	21	$56	95	0	+95	Down	$-8	05-06 13:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	23	$55	102	0	+102	Up	$-4	05-06 17:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	13	$52	50	50	+0	Up	$-5	05-11 18:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	24	$51	110	0	+110	Down	+$4	05-05 18:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	24	$49	115	0	+115	Up	+$11	05-06 11:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	12	$49	70	0	+70	Down	+$1	05-07 14:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	15	$49	87	0	+87	open	—	05-18 17:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	27	$48	120	0	+120	Down	$-3	05-09 16:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-18 18:52:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x9d8a47…
05-18 18:52:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x5f20f6…
05-18 18:50:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xa06722…
05-18 18:50:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xc56bf8…
05-18 18:50:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x1d3dac…
05-18 18:50:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xbb4263…
05-18 18:50:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x2a4a7b…
05-18 18:46:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x6c92a8…
05-18 18:46:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xb7795f…
05-18 18:45:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x67935a…
05-18 18:45:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x48b810…
05-18 18:43:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x962225…
05-18 18:43:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0x3fdda4…
05-18 18:43:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0xa9eca9…
05-18 18:43:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x9f225c…
05-18 18:43:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x9ce305…
05-18 18:43:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x28945e…
05-18 18:42:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xe309cd…
05-18 18:41:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xa0853d…
05-18 18:41:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x4ce824…
05-18 18:41:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x00ce3a…
05-18 18:38:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xcd8424…
05-18 18:38:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xa1b015…
05-18 18:38:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x0270a0…
05-18 18:38:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xac094d…
05-18 18:38:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x5cfdf1…
05-18 18:34:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xa6a8e6…
05-18 18:34:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x7b2b99…
05-18 18:34:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x2872d5…
05-18 18:34:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	6¢	$0	0x1d16de…
05-18 18:34:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x53be44…
05-18 18:31:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x50de53…
05-18 18:28:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xd812e4…
05-18 18:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x26706d…
05-18 18:27:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xd5342d…
05-18 18:26:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x67c04d…
05-18 18:26:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0xeba70a…
05-18 18:26:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xae8548…
05-18 18:21:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xad570d…
05-18 18:21:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x154833…
05-18 18:21:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x12a8af…
05-18 18:21:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x2711b3…
05-18 18:21:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x6ed34c…
05-18 18:21:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x84d81c…
05-18 18:21:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	75¢	$2	0x452586…
05-18 18:15:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x23cfb1…
05-18 18:15:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xf04448…
05-18 18:15:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x33ed9a…
05-18 18:12:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x2ef1c4…
05-18 18:12:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x550c26…
05-18 18:11:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x7a71b9…
05-18 18:10:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x07f4d8…
05-18 18:09:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xf931ef…
05-18 18:09:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x966174…
05-18 18:08:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x84dee0…
05-18 18:08:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	7	6¢	$0	0xdaab0e…
05-18 18:08:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xf8a955…
05-18 18:08:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xa4e690…
05-18 18:07:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x60c150…
05-18 18:07:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$1	0xee4d68…
05-18 18:06:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xdb7534…
05-18 18:06:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x47a373…
05-18 18:02:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xf3945d…
05-18 18:02:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x40193a…
05-18 18:01:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	10¢	$0	0x513e39…
05-18 18:01:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x478acb…
05-18 18:01:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0xe2896e…
05-18 18:00:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xbc48e3…
05-18 18:00:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x17f146…
05-18 18:00:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x44f779…
05-18 18:00:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x55eace…
05-18 17:39:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x62acf5…
05-18 17:39:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xfd9f2a…
05-18 17:39:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x3ed3a8…
05-18 17:38:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x8d8740…
05-18 17:38:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x6cb453…
05-18 17:38:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x9c835b…
05-18 17:38:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x027be0…
05-18 17:38:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xf22ab2…
05-18 17:38:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x8554ea…
05-18 17:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x3aade8…
05-18 17:38:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x049b3e…
05-18 17:38:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x5eb072…
05-18 17:37:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xe0d27d…
05-18 17:37:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xdd1161…
05-18 17:37:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xf0972c…
05-18 17:36:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xc7a994…
05-18 17:33:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xe39210…
05-18 17:33:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0xcceb98…
05-18 17:33:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x82a513…
05-18 17:33:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x3fc752…
05-18 17:33:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x1e31cc…
05-18 17:33:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xab4a4d…
05-18 17:32:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x038f95…
05-18 17:32:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x8bf06a…
05-18 17:32:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xa8bfd0…
05-18 17:32:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	0	63¢	$0	0xd8e960…
05-18 17:32:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x8086f7…
05-18 17:31:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x0c93c1…
05-18 17:31:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0xb993d3…