Severe-Radiosonde — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$616

Unrealized P&L

-$41

Hit rate

60.1%

Resolved

922

Trades

1,282

lifetime

Volume

$8.83K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 19:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 120 days

Categories

Other

90% 25% -$520

Crypto

6% 30% -$117

Sports

5% 19% +$20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes		+248	$50	4¢	$9	-$41	09-15 09:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Caribbean Premier League: Jamaica Kingsmen vs Guyana Amazon Warriors	2	$165	105	105	+0	Guyana Amazon Warriors	+$41	08-14 03:24
Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$152	146	146	+0	Yes	+$140	07-19 22:36
criccpl tri bar 2026 08 28	4	$146	91	91	+0	Trinbago Knight Riders	+$37	08-29 04:49
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-13?	3	$103	96	96	+0	Yes	+$33	09-13 17:11
Caribbean Premier League: Trinbago Knight Riders vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons	1	$100	169	0	+169	Antigua And Barbuda Falcons	-$100	09-02 15:47
fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 team to advance	4	$90	60	60	+0	Egypt	+$20	07-03 20:54
criccpl stl ant 2026 08 14	3	$87	56	56	+0	St. Lucia Kings	+$25	08-15 05:07
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-30?	2	$81	56	56	+0	Yes	+$21	08-30 14:01
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	6	$80	115	68	+48	No	+$6	06-27 04:43
criccpl tri stl 2026 08 26	2	$70	124	0	+124	St. Lucia Kings	-$70	08-27 01:01
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 00:45 UTC	3	$68	92	57	+36	Down	-$32	09-15 00:52
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	2	$63	43	43	+0	Yes	+$23	06-30 19:06
epl mac ars 2026 04 19 exact score 2 1	3	$61	56	55	+2	Yes	+$50	04-19 17:28
criccpl jam tri 2026 08 15	1	$60	92	0	+92	Jamaica Kingsmen	-$60	08-15 21:45
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$57	52	52	+0	No	+$47	07-19 22:36
fifwc jor arg 2026 06 27 total 2pt5	2	$57	38	38	+0	Over	+$7	06-28 03:13
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	2	$56	36	36	+0	Yes	+$16	06-29 19:08
criccpl tri guy 2026 08 31	4	$56	222	0	+222	Guyana Amazon Warriors	-$56	09-01 02:01
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-09?	3	$55	146	0	+146	Yes	+$91	09-09 19:42
criccpl ant st 2026 08 20	2	$55	126	0	+126	Antigua And Barbuda Falcons	+$71	08-21 00:44
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Norway?	2	$55	71	71	+0	No	+$51	07-05 21:54
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-17?	2	$54	47	47	+0	Yes	+$14	10-17 13:07
criccpl jam bar 2026 08 11	2	$54	38	38	+0	Barbados Tridents	+$14	08-12 02:11
criccpl st tri 2026 08 08	2	$53	35	35	+0	Trinbago Knight Riders	+$13	08-09 00:21
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	2	$52	50	50	+0	Yes	+$12	06-23 00:49
epl sun mac 2026 01 01 mac	4	$52	47	47	+0	No	-$8	01-01 21:51
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	2	$52	34	34	+0	Yes	+$12	06-28 20:53
fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 team to advance	2	$50	32	32	+0	Mexico	+$10	07-01 02:37
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	3	$50	248	0	+248	open	—	09-15 09:14
criccpl ant guy 2026 08 23	1	$50	84	0	+84	Guyana Amazon Warriors	+$34	08-23 19:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 19:40:17	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	89	6¢	$5	0x6fcdfe…
10-26 19:17:57	Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0x780fc1…
10-26 19:16:50	Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	80	2¢	$2	0xef1847…
10-26 19:14:35	Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xc9d49d…
10-26 19:13:50	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0xb2d36f…
10-25 19:24:32	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xab29d7…
10-25 19:24:17	FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x6d9e88…
10-25 19:24:02	FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xccbfad…
10-25 19:23:27	Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 2 Real Madrid CF?	Yes	BUY	86	6¢	$5	0x854954…
10-25 19:21:03	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x2e8e4e…
10-25 16:34:14	Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	19	37¢	$7	0xacc5ec…
10-25 16:33:03	Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x15f081…
10-25 16:32:51	Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x1cbe0c…
10-25 14:29:47	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	53	4¢	$2	0xaf1d2a…
10-25 14:29:29	Will Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0x6abd5d…
10-25 14:17:48	Exact Score: Liverpool FC 1 - 1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC?	Yes	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0x423e27…
10-25 14:16:23	Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0xa65f14…
10-25 14:06:30	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x218180…
10-25 14:05:15	Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x1b8398…
10-25 14:02:47	Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x5f221c…
10-25 14:02:30	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	56	27¢	$15	0x4ef26d…
10-25 13:58:05	Exact Score: Manchester United FC 2 - 2 AFC Bournemouth?	Yes	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x3351de…
10-25 13:57:50	Exact Score: Manchester United FC 1 - 1 AFC Bournemouth?	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x20b386…
10-25 13:57:42	Exact Score: Manchester United FC 0 - 0 AFC Bournemouth?	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xa068e3…
10-24 17:24:32	Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xaac6a7…
10-24 17:24:06	Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Chelsea FC O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xa38367…
10-24 15:58:06	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	29	52¢	$15	0xb936db…
10-24 15:55:44	Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)	Chelsea FC	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x1e781a…
10-24 15:55:30	Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	49	41¢	$20	0x81c3e5…
10-24 13:17:57	Will Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x19f4a5…
10-24 13:17:35	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x5facec…
10-24 01:06:14	Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	17	24¢	$4	0xb7bfda…
10-24 01:05:41	Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 2 Manchester City FC?	Yes	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0xa4aeee…
10-24 01:05:32	Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 0 - 2 Manchester City FC?	Yes	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x6c6ee2…
10-24 01:04:59	Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x9e8e6d…
10-21 20:48:03	Aston Villa FC vs. Viking FK: O/U 3.5	Over	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x0a7a3e…
10-21 20:15:38	Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	SELL	19	90¢	$17	0x65b065…
10-21 17:05:57	Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	FC Bayern München	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x4743d2…
10-21 17:05:29	Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x13f7cf…
10-21 17:04:42	FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xb45fec…
10-21 16:52:53	Aston Villa FC vs. Viking FK: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x97b74c…
10-21 16:52:44	Aston Villa FC vs. Viking FK: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xa6cdf9…
10-21 16:52:21	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	45	44¢	$20	0x42ff7e…
10-21 16:51:56	Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x4caf58…
10-21 16:50:50	Will Como 1907 vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x2e3eae…
10-21 16:50:42	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x2be059…
10-20 20:56:03	Manchester City FC vs. AEK: Manchester City FC O/U 3.5	Over	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x1638d8…
10-20 18:33:24	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	BUY	17	41¢	$7	0xb33523…
10-20 18:33:05	Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)	Paris Saint-Germain FC	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x1b5310…
10-20 18:32:11	Manchester City FC vs. AEK: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x76a9ba…
10-20 18:32:02	Manchester City FC vs. AEK: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x90f10e…
10-20 18:31:38	Manchester City FC vs. AEK: Manchester City FC O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x765550…
10-20 18:30:48	Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xa6fbcf…
10-18 16:58:02	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	28	40¢	$11	0xf7e0a5…
10-18 16:57:39	Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xf5e1a3…
10-18 12:35:50	Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)	Manchester United FC	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xe9c927…
10-18 12:35:24	Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	43	24¢	$10	0x2711a8…
10-18 12:35:03	AFC Bournemouth vs. Sunderland AFC: Neither team to score first?	Yes	BUY	28	11¢	$3	0xd3c93d…
10-18 12:33:09	Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 1 - 1 Sunderland AFC?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x5b2d17…
10-18 12:30:33	AFC Bournemouth vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xc7cdf0…
10-18 12:29:05	Leeds United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x76df40…
10-18 12:28:15	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x923193…
10-18 12:27:57	Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x231ef2…
10-18 12:13:00	Exact Score: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3 - 1 Crystal Palace FC?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x203dfe…
10-17 16:12:12	Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0xefcd0c…
10-17 16:12:00	Aston Villa FC to score first vs. Newcastle United FC?	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x5c8077…
10-17 16:11:47	Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Aston Villa FC O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xd1b181…
10-17 16:10:53	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x8f48bf…
10-17 16:10:41	Manchester City FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: Manchester City FC O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x7fefc2…
10-17 16:10:24	Manchester City FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 3.5	Over	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xbcad34…
10-17 16:10:11	Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Aston Villa FC O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x72c0df…
10-17 16:09:48	Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x12c9ec…
10-17 16:09:42	Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x62064a…
10-17 16:09:29	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xc06ea9…
10-17 14:58:42	Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	51	4¢	$2	0x652712…
10-17 14:57:38	Manchester City FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x640bf8…
10-17 14:57:29	Manchester City FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xef1f5a…
10-17 13:46:44	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x7e4984…
10-17 13:46:32	Brentford FC vs. Liverpool FC: Neither team to score first?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x2571ea…
10-17 13:46:17	Brentford FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x52d95f…
10-17 13:44:45	Manchester City FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x67fb4a…
10-17 13:44:11	Manchester City FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xef89e0…
10-17 13:43:17	Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)	Manchester City FC	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xad8d8d…
10-17 13:43:09	Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)	Manchester City FC	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x4a5f82…
10-17 13:42:45	Manchester City FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x04f90e…
10-17 13:42:33	Manchester City FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x9c36d1…
10-17 13:42:03	Manchester City FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: Manchester City FC O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x0878f0…
10-17 13:41:56	Manchester City FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: Manchester City FC O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xdaa3b5…
10-17 13:41:12	Exact Score: Manchester City FC 4 - 1 Ipswich Town FC?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x97adff…
10-17 13:37:29	Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x295c5b…
10-17 13:30:14	Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC: Chelsea FC O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xb58946…
10-17 13:30:05	Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)	Chelsea FC	SELL	22	92¢	$20	0x5b5cf8…
10-17 13:07:32	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	SELL	47	73¢	$34	0xb495c2…
10-17 13:06:24	Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0x8a65e0…
10-17 13:04:30	Will Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x641a0e…
10-17 12:50:59	Chelsea FC to score first vs. Everton FC?	Yes	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x811703…
10-17 04:11:18	Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x31cee3…
10-17 04:11:03	Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC: Chelsea FC O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x91eccd…
10-17 04:10:36	Chelsea FC to score first vs. Everton FC?	Yes	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x30bef5…
10-17 04:10:21	Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)	Chelsea FC	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xc724a0…