Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$18

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

62.4%

Resolved

124

Trades

133

lifetime

Volume

$133

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$12

8 positions

First seen

2026-09-07

last 11-06 03:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 48 days

Categories

Other

82% 66% +$24

Politics

16% 58% -$2

Tech

2% 0% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $195 Week of November 2 2026?	No	+2	$1	99¢	$2	+$1	11-02 15:17
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+2	$1	100¢	$2	+$1	11-05 19:26
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 6, 2026?	No	+2	$1	90¢	$2	+$1	11-04 08:01
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $495 Week of November 2 2026?	No	+1	$1	96¢	$1	+$0	11-03 15:23
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 6, 2026?	No	+1	$1	98¢	$1	+$0	11-03 07:18
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Yes	+1	$1	84¢	$1	+$0	11-04 22:59
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 6?	Down	+2	$1	35¢	$1	$0	11-06 03:56
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	+2	$1	28¢	$1	$0	10-28 20:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 03:56:58	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 6?	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x70344e…
11-05 19:26:29	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x8bea11…
11-05 10:38:27	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 5?	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x14a09f…
11-04 22:59:45	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x2de815…
11-04 08:01:54	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xc8f6f9…
11-04 00:01:25	Will BGC Group (BGC) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xe63b8e…
11-03 15:23:54	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $495 Week of November 2 2026?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x5b2d40…
11-03 07:18:16	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xca6354…
11-02 23:17:58	Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x1003e5…
11-02 15:17:12	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $195 Week of November 2 2026?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x099192…
11-02 07:12:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x309f46…
11-01 23:11:37	Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x3ab211…
10-30 01:51:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xdfbc47…
10-29 13:56:53	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x719750…
10-29 04:44:47	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x8b8452…
10-28 20:43:55	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xc3a737…
10-28 11:58:40	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $64 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x1b69a6…
10-28 03:57:41	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x4bfbc4…
10-27 19:47:21	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x478c92…
10-27 11:43:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x11162b…
10-27 03:33:20	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x096b32…
10-25 06:18:24	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xb2422c…
10-24 16:10:42	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x39eb71…
10-23 22:53:00	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x9594e1…
10-23 12:55:36	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 23?	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xf40c7d…
10-23 04:48:17	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x558042…
10-22 20:33:35	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xc08526…
10-22 12:21:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x6e7490…
10-21 22:13:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xcc0cb8…
10-21 14:08:08	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x1fe758…
10-21 06:07:41	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 24?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x11c943…
10-20 22:05:02	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 21?	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x2c3570…
10-20 13:07:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xcf92d2…
10-20 05:06:33	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 20?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x96f03c…
10-19 21:02:52	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $517.50 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xfc88a1…
10-19 12:59:11	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x4ca2aa…
10-19 04:59:03	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $55 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x1c3e37…
10-18 20:58:24	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x2d29b2…
10-18 05:33:18	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xe1c613…
10-17 19:39:15	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 18?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xc76183…
10-17 08:40:15	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x5682f5…
10-16 12:57:40	will wti dip to 95 by october 12 2026 from october 15	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xa61e34…
10-16 04:04:25	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 22 2026	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xdafd0a…
10-15 19:00:01	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15?	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x5a47db…
10-15 09:46:38	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xdbcbb2…
10-15 01:42:28	spy up or down on october 15 2026	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x3b6871…
10-14 17:41:42	will amzn reach 260 by october 12 2026	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x243e05…
10-14 09:41:11	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $770 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x4b4aa7…
10-14 01:37:40	will meta reach 770 by october 12 2026 from october 13	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x5db658…
10-13 15:26:28	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x72e976…
10-13 07:08:32	spy up or down on october 13 2026	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x8dd62f…
10-12 23:05:50	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $525 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x877a17…
10-12 15:05:11	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 16?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xe2e1ff…
10-12 07:05:04	Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xd0c7f9…
10-11 23:04:57	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xd9c658…
10-11 14:39:28	Will Unity Bancorp (UNTY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xb22ce4…
10-11 06:39:08	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x5a40e4…
10-10 21:16:58	Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $2.8B?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x08a001…
10-10 11:50:36	Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xec63c3…
10-09 15:27:42	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xcac483…
10-09 05:41:21	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x10ce56…
10-08 21:40:50	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xbc2a2d…
10-08 13:40:38	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 8?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xb0f49b…
10-08 13:38:51	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 8?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xf46572…
10-08 04:30:59	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.10 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x93a176…
10-07 18:01:16	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x950aaa…
10-07 09:48:53	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x943649…
10-07 01:48:23	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x6b8c86…
10-06 17:48:02	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x4aa4ed…
10-06 08:55:33	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 6?	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xf1fef9…
10-06 00:48:28	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $193 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xcdb02c…
10-05 15:29:53	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xde3c28…
10-05 00:45:50	will nvda reach 240 by october 5 2026	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xd8ee4f…
10-02 09:18:35	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on October 2?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x437712…
10-02 07:33:18	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 2?	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x9719ed…
10-02 05:44:05	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x062eaa…
10-01 12:21:11	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 1?	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x0e58ef…
10-01 04:06:30	trump names ai czar by october 4 2026 20260928	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x86c015…
09-30 18:58:38	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x40b6a3…
09-30 06:26:39	spx up or down on september 30 2026	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x8ee80d…
09-29 22:26:15	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 Week of September 28 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x496f83…
09-29 14:16:21	will mu dip to 1050 by september 28 2026 from september 28	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xe85422…
09-29 06:02:53	will googl reach 345 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xb546c0…
09-28 22:01:35	will xagusd reach 64 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x37edf5…
09-28 13:54:57	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in September?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x627042…
09-28 05:43:14	will rklb reach 74 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xb208fb…
09-27 21:42:38	will xagusd dip to 62 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x54e8be…
09-27 11:49:39	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x04e023…
09-27 03:14:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x1bcef5…
09-26 19:06:20	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt20 in september	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xee068a…
09-26 07:13:36	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xe488da…
09-25 18:23:21	trump renames ai by september 30	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xf01899…
09-25 10:14:21	spy up or down on september 25 2026	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xce8604…
09-25 02:12:33	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $122.50 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x8e5ca8…
09-24 18:08:50	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xc8408c…
09-24 10:08:35	Will Trump say "Mineral" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x8910b4…
09-24 02:08:02	will trump say ballroom during xi jinpings state arrival	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xaaf68a…
09-23 16:45:27	Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 28, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x674710…
09-23 07:59:58	will ewy reach 194 by september 21 2026	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x954038…
09-22 23:46:38	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $220 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x52de62…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 8?	2	$2	4	+4	No	$0	10-08 13:40
Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	+$1	10-12 07:05
trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	+$1	09-19 06:29
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $122.50 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$1	3	+3	No	+$2	09-25 02:12
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $135 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$1	4	+4	No	-$1	09-21 14:27
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of October 12 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	10-13 15:26
will meta reach 770 by october 12 2026 from october 13	1	$1	1	+1	No	-$1	10-14 01:37
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026?	1	$1	4	+4	No	-$1	10-29 04:44
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	10-17 08:40
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	1	$1	2	+2	Up	+$1	10-28 03:57
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?	1	$1	4	+4	Yes	-$1	09-20 03:53
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 23?	1	$1	4	+4	Down	-$1	10-23 12:55
Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	11-02 23:17
will trump say ballroom during xi jinpings state arrival	1	$1	3	+3	No	-$1	09-24 02:08
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	1	$1	1	+1	No	+$0	09-26 07:13
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of October 19 2026?	1	$1	3	+3	No	-$1	10-20 13:07
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?	1	$1	5	+5	Yes	-$1	10-25 06:18
Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	11-01 23:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	+$1	10-27 11:43
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $220 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$1	5	+5	No	-$1	09-22 23:46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of September 14 2026?	1	$1	4	+4	No	-$1	09-15 08:08
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 6?	1	$1	2	+2	open	—	11-06 03:56
will warsh say inflation 20 times during september press conference 20260909	1	$1	4	+4	No	+$3	09-16 02:30
Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $2.8B?	1	$1	4	+4	No	-$1	10-10 21:16
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	-$1	09-10 04:59
Will Trump say "Mineral" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	1	$1	1	+1	No	+$0	09-24 10:08
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 28, 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	-$1	10-22 20:33
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	-$1	10-10 11:50
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 2?	1	$1	2	+2	Up	+$1	10-02 07:33
Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	-$1	10-09 05:41