Weighty-Cushion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$181

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

65.5%

Resolved

Trades

440

lifetime

Volume

$2.88K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-07

last 06-11 00:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

62% 0% $-8

Other

34% 100% +$191

Sports

2% 0% $-2

Tech

2% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30?	Yes		-234	$-3	4¢	$-9	$-6	06-03 12:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	3	$155	762	762	+0	open	—	01-18 09:47
will trump say mentally ill this week february 1	4	$87	433	0	+433	open	—	01-31 00:47
will russia capture rodynske by january 31	2	$81	424	0	+424	open	—	01-14 14:51
iran strike on israel by january 31	1	$80	402	0	+402	open	—	01-15 23:19
israel strikes iran by january 23 2026	2	$80	573	0	+573	open	—	01-15 23:23
will the us conduct a cyberattack on iran by jan 31	9	$80	573	0	+573	open	—	01-16 10:07
will the us not strike iran by january 31 2026 314	2	$80	572	0	+572	open	—	01-17 08:31
maduro trial scheduled by january 31	7	$75	1,611	1,611	+0	open	—	01-07 06:12
will trump admin release any more epstein related files by january 24 671	7	$75	417	0	+417	open	—	01-19 12:47
will the supreme court rule on trumps tarriffs by january 31	6	$74	435	0	+435	open	—	01-20 20:35
2026 wm phoenix open winner scottie scheffler win	2	$73	1,457	0	+1,457	open	—	02-05 20:05
trump declassifies new ufo files by march 31	4	$69	346	0	+346	open	—	03-03 11:17
atp djokovi sinner 2026 01 30	1	$69	687	0	+687	open	—	01-28 20:01
us strikes iran by january 11 2026 946	1	$67	667	0	+667	open	—	01-08 23:24
maduro mugshot released by january 16	1	$62	619	0	+619	open	—	01-07 09:12
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	8	$61	469	0	+469	open	—	02-05 08:50
will mrbeasts million dollar puzzle be solved by february 15	7	$60	354	0	+354	open	—	02-12 06:18
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?	12	$60	308	0	+308	open	—	04-02 22:59
will russia enter verkhnia tersa by february 28	6	$60	398	0	+398	open	—	02-09 14:26
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	2	$59	328	0	+328	open	—	02-02 20:40
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	4	$52	280	0	+280	open	—	03-06 22:36
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30?	5	$52	242	0	+242	open	—	04-01 05:52
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	4	$48	241	0	+241	open	—	04-01 08:39
will the us next strike iran on february 3 2026 et	71	$48	1,604	0	+1,604	open	—	01-31 16:25
will andy burnham labour win the gorton and denton by election	3	$47	527	0	+527	open	—	01-28 20:44
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	3	$47	263	0	+263	open	—	02-02 05:09
will the us next strike iran on january 20 2026 et 992	88	$46	1,519	0	+1,519	open	—	01-14 06:52
will any eu country strike iran by march 31	2	$44	232	0	+232	open	—	03-05 00:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	3	$43	213	0	+213	open	—	04-15 12:18
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	2	$42	221	0	+221	open	—	02-28 20:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 00:04:06	president trump to attend usa opening match 20260607163739001	Yes	BUY	27	9¢	$2	0x6d154f…
06-11 00:00:58	will stripes valuation hit high 190b by june 30	Yes	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0xa970d3…
06-10 00:11:18	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by june 22 183	Yes	BUY	27	9¢	$2	0xf1e80f…
06-10 00:10:13	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by june 22 183	Yes	BUY	45	9¢	$4	0x723b81…
06-10 00:05:42	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by june 22 183	Yes	BUY	30	9¢	$3	0x4b4155…
06-10 00:05:42	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by june 22 183	Yes	BUY	30	9¢	$3	0x0790f4…
06-03 20:29:36	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	106	16¢	$17	0x8b5a60…
06-03 18:19:13	Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?	Yes	BUY	89	16¢	$14	0x3093ff…
06-03 18:01:46	Starmer out by June 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	258	2¢	$4	0x890663…
06-03 12:01:45	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30?	Yes	SELL	234	1¢	$3	0x9505c9…
06-02 15:31:21	Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x43aecc…
06-01 16:01:29	Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	6¢	$3	0x89ea6c…
06-01 13:52:17	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	BUY	62	21¢	$13	0xe45264…
06-01 12:27:58	Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	6¢	$2	0x4c98f0…
06-01 07:37:35	Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0xa04c2e…
06-01 07:35:23	Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	13¢	$1	0xcca02f…
05-30 22:30:03	Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	10¢	$6	0x26e904…
05-30 15:30:08	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0x85cd22…
05-30 13:29:46	Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	10¢	$0	0xd359f8…
05-29 11:24:25	Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0x7ec8b0…
05-29 04:05:10	UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)	Justin Gaethje	BUY	112	16¢	$18	0x86faff…
05-29 04:01:29	UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)	Justin Gaethje	BUY	36	16¢	$6	0xedf001…
05-29 03:50:30	UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)	Justin Gaethje	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0x32362f…
05-29 01:04:04	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	17¢	$19	0x4a56d6…
05-28 22:45:02	UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)	Justin Gaethje	BUY	99	16¢	$16	0x38caad…
05-28 21:47:01	Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x286e93…
05-28 21:20:15	Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0x2ac78a…
05-28 18:17:17	Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	Yes	BUY	41	18¢	$7	0x8b00e8…
05-28 18:08:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	26	10¢	$3	0x06380d…
05-28 16:55:02	Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	Yes	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0x5b92c1…
05-28 16:15:17	Starmer out by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	104	5¢	$5	0x051d46…
05-28 15:08:34	Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	Yes	BUY	61	18¢	$11	0x5b56ff…
05-28 15:07:16	Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	Yes	BUY	19	18¢	$3	0x48ebf9…
05-28 15:03:46	Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xe7c298…
05-28 15:01:50	Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	Yes	BUY	31	20¢	$6	0xb68a25…
05-28 14:37:46	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	BUY	78	8¢	$6	0x7699ad…
05-28 14:36:12	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	104	16¢	$17	0x4e2811…
05-28 14:06:44	Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x58fa3e…
05-28 12:23:42	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?	Yes	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x12aa23…
05-09 06:04:52	NBA Playoffs: Knicks vs. 76ers Total Games O/U 5.5	Over 5.5	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x2ead63…
05-06 07:08:46	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	Yes	BUY	111	7¢	$8	0x3fe1a7…
05-03 06:41:48	Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	Yes	BUY	77	21¢	$16	0xa9cf20…
04-22 13:07:14	Will Kelp DAO socialize the losses?	Yes	BUY	32	14¢	$4	0x0bcd99…
04-22 12:53:38	Will Kelp DAO socialize the losses?	Yes	BUY	77	14¢	$11	0xfe85e1…
04-15 12:18:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	Yes	BUY	93	20¢	$19	0xccf539…
04-15 12:09:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	Yes	BUY	22	20¢	$4	0x4ca141…
04-15 12:04:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	Yes	BUY	98	20¢	$20	0x823a2e…
04-15 07:44:52	Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?	Yes	BUY	62	11¢	$7	0xc21489…
04-15 07:44:52	Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?	Yes	BUY	16	11¢	$2	0x032468…
04-15 06:22:54	Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?	Yes	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0x51ad6d…
04-11 18:06:35	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	19¢	$11	0xdcdd38…
04-06 20:15:39	Evo Morales arrested by May 31?	Yes	BUY	4	18¢	$1	0x6c4166…
04-05 15:28:11	Will Trump say "Trump University" in April?	Yes	BUY	47	10¢	$5	0x82c7d4…
04-04 16:20:05	Will MrBeast's next video get 110 million or more views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	96	18¢	$17	0xf698ea…
04-04 16:19:59	Will MrBeast's next video get 110 million or more views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	65	19¢	$12	0xaf9168…
04-04 15:09:03	will none of the eaglets hatch before april 17 823 292	Yes	BUY	12	6¢	$1	0x4c188d…
04-04 07:14:39	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0xa90568…
04-04 06:00:49	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xdbb6ea…
04-03 22:07:11	will swim bts be the billboard hot 100 1 song for the week of april 11	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x3687cd…
04-03 21:59:43	will swim bts be the billboard hot 100 1 song for the week of april 11	Yes	BUY	9	13¢	$1	0xbe0ccb…
04-03 21:55:09	will swim bts be the billboard hot 100 1 song for the week of april 11	Yes	BUY	8	16¢	$1	0xa0c84e…
04-03 04:26:25	will forsen beat xqcs minecraft speedrun record by april 30	Yes	BUY	112	21¢	$24	0x73032d…
04-03 02:27:53	will forsen beat xqcs minecraft speedrun record by april 30	Yes	BUY	76	22¢	$17	0xae61e7…
04-02 22:59:29	Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	46	19¢	$9	0xf2746d…
04-02 22:05:19	Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	4	19¢	$1	0x785eee…
04-02 17:26:25	Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	88	19¢	$17	0x6c7d65…
04-02 13:20:37	Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x05f8e7…
04-02 12:43:47	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	35	9¢	$3	0x3d2cfe…
04-02 12:15:45	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x81516e…
04-02 12:15:41	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	119	9¢	$11	0xd2e40d…
04-02 11:34:15	Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	21	19¢	$4	0xf5d770…
04-02 08:36:15	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	14	6¢	$1	0xbd0297…
04-02 07:35:19	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0xd7d89a…
04-02 05:02:31	Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	116	20¢	$23	0x2974fb…
04-02 03:28:23	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	101	6¢	$6	0x13e915…
04-02 02:48:43	Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x29345c…
04-02 01:29:27	Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xd1a788…
04-02 01:29:11	Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x21245d…
04-02 01:28:57	Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x7ab166…
04-02 01:28:51	Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x49e8a4…
04-02 00:11:33	Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0xc0799d…
04-01 21:00:27	JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xfdc5e7…
04-01 12:28:21	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	Yes	BUY	30	14¢	$4	0xa2ea8e…
04-01 12:04:15	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	Yes	BUY	116	14¢	$16	0x39180d…
04-01 12:03:11	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x8db97a…
04-01 12:02:41	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	Yes	BUY	40	15¢	$6	0xf8aa11…
04-01 08:39:37	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	119	20¢	$24	0xdf1dac…
04-01 07:29:51	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	20¢	$2	0xb8cb71…
04-01 07:29:51	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	20¢	$2	0x975f06…
04-01 06:52:49	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xbe80bd…
04-01 06:48:09	Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	21	22¢	$5	0x17d24a…
04-01 06:40:21	Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	11	22¢	$2	0xcc4ac4…
04-01 05:59:47	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	Yes	BUY	12	10¢	$1	0x18e994…
04-01 05:52:35	Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	137	21¢	$29	0x9212b2…
04-01 04:57:27	Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x957763…
04-01 02:06:05	Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0xcd5214…
03-31 22:49:35	Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	13	22¢	$3	0x801835…
03-31 13:32:05	Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	32	22¢	$7	0x1f602c…
03-31 07:39:27	Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	15	22¢	$3	0x8cb858…
03-31 07:03:57	Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	30	22¢	$7	0xe15427…