Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$42

Unrealized P&L

-$21

Hit rate

66.4%

Resolved

191

Trades

762

lifetime

Volume

$4.11K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$416

12 positions

First seen

2026-09-20

last 10-29 00:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Crypto

53% 51% -$102

Other

44% 77% +$155

Tech

2% 50% -$11

Sports

1% 100% +$5

Politics

0% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 397 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will AI solve the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem in 2026?	No	+149	$140	88¢	$132	-$8	09-28 15:53
Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?	No	+147	$103	86¢	$126	+$24	09-28 15:54
Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?	No	+67	$49	93¢	$62	+$13	09-28 15:45
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+228	$84	15¢	$33	-$51	09-28 15:44
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+24	$10	72¢	$17	+$7	10-22 09:12
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by November 30, 2026?	No	+12	$10	94¢	$12	+$2	10-20 02:59
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+323	$10	3¢	$9	-$1	10-08 03:48
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+15	$5	50¢	$7	+$2	10-01 14:02
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	+5	$5	99¢	$5	+$0	09-20 06:58
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	+363	$11	1¢	$5	-$6	09-28 17:39
Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+33	$5	12¢	$4	-$1	09-20 17:25
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	+84	$5	3¢	$3	-$2	09-28 17:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	6	$373	1,197	1,171	+26	Yes	+$152	10-23 01:41
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	4	$190	328	100	+228	open	—	09-28 15:44
Will AI solve the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem in 2026?	3	$147	199	50	+149	open	—	09-28 15:53
Will AI solve P versus NP in 2026?	2	$146	149	0	+149	open	—	09-28 15:50
Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?	4	$140	222	75	+147	open	—	09-28 15:54
Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026?	3	$140	199	50	+149	open	—	09-28 15:54
Will AI solve the Riemann Hypothesis in 2026?	2	$139	149	0	+149	open	—	09-28 15:57
Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?	3	$78	116	49	+67	open	—	09-28 15:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 04:30 UTC	12	$75	96	24	+71	Down	-$4	09-30 04:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 04:50 UTC	6	$70	75	0	+75	Down	+$5	09-30 04:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 04:35 UTC	6	$70	74	0	+74	Up	+$4	09-30 04:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-01 08:15 UTC	10	$63	37	37	+0	Up	+$3	10-01 08:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-01 06:40 UTC	11	$61	51	34	+17	Down	+$1	10-01 06:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-01 08:10 UTC	12	$60	60	43	+18	Down	-$4	10-01 08:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 04:05 UTC	3	$55	61	0	+61	Down	-$3	09-30 04:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 05:05 UTC	9	$54	54	40	+14	Up	-$16	09-30 05:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-01 06:55 UTC	10	$39	47	18	+29	Down	+$2	10-01 06:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-01 08:05 UTC	8	$39	28	18	+10	Down	+$1	10-01 08:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 04:20 UTC	5	$38	53	10	+43	Down	+$12	09-30 04:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-01 07:55 UTC	7	$38	38	16	+22	Down	+$1	10-01 07:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-01 06:45 UTC	10	$36	36	36	+0	Down	+$0	10-01 06:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 04:25 UTC	7	$35	54	0	+54	Down	-$27	09-30 04:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 04:40 UTC	3	$35	39	0	+39	Down	+$4	09-30 04:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 05:15 UTC	3	$35	39	0	+39	Up	-$35	09-30 05:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-01 06:25 UTC	11	$35	40	26	+14	Up	-$3	10-01 06:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-01 06:50 UTC	7	$33	47	20	+27	Up	-$2	10-01 06:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-01 01:00 UTC	10	$33	37	6	+30	Up	+$1	10-01 01:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-01 07:05 UTC	9	$33	32	30	+2	Up	-$1	10-01 07:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-01 05:40 UTC	9	$33	30	14	+16	Down	+$0	10-01 05:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	14	$32	32	28	+4	Up	-$4	10-01 15:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 00:52:50	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x1d3046…
10-27 03:02:51	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	18	33¢	$6	0x73a80d…
10-25 14:41:47	Will Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x2f3d4b…
10-25 14:41:23	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	SELL	3	59¢	$2	0x74c57a…
10-25 14:10:44	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x8bf572…
10-25 02:22:44	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x3bdc36…
10-25 02:00:32	Pelicans vs. Nuggets	Nuggets	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xf903d9…
10-25 01:30:41	Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)	Pelicans	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xb5e648…
10-24 13:09:32	Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)	Manchester United FC	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x239db2…
10-24 04:15:44	Rockets vs. Spurs	Rockets	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0xae8799…
10-24 02:09:36	Clippers vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xce1746…
10-24 02:08:30	Rockets vs. Spurs	Rockets	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x6f502f…
10-24 01:34:44	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0xc47042…
10-23 01:41:08	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x975acd…
10-22 22:57:21	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x7c2ddb…
10-22 09:35:44	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	92¢	$12	0x6d4cd8…
10-22 09:12:17	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0xd203a3…
10-22 09:12:00	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	6	58¢	$3	0xcc754a…
10-21 17:00:39	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x4a3acc…
10-20 04:24:26	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x77354d…
10-20 02:59:09	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xbafeb2…
10-18 14:13:35	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x2f6786…
10-18 14:11:00	Will Leeds United FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	19	39¢	$7	0x6b2e02…
10-18 13:41:05	Will Leeds United FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xe878ed…
10-17 03:34:36	Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	87¢	$6	0xe42a82…
10-16 14:54:46	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xe33d46…
10-16 07:01:48	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xf5cda4…
10-16 06:26:48	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xdaaad7…
10-16 06:26:03	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x0a1009…
10-16 06:24:01	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	SELL	13	19¢	$2	0x6498d9…
10-16 06:23:43	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	Yes	SELL	10	23¢	$2	0xb5a0c4…
10-14 13:12:42	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x8e8154…
10-13 10:00:29	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	48¢	$8	0x0b0006…
10-13 09:59:05	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x81b625…
10-13 09:47:38	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	88¢	$16	0x18e9e0…
10-13 09:46:29	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	86¢	$12	0x4b6ffb…
10-11 13:34:13	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xb1d917…
10-11 13:33:43	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x1329e3…
10-11 13:33:39	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xd760a1…
10-11 13:33:33	Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x9cfcc5…
10-11 13:33:24	Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x69676b…
10-11 13:33:16	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x839415…
10-11 11:15:21	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x52ba4c…
10-11 11:14:48	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0x403322…
10-10 14:43:25	Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x9a3c0d…
10-08 03:48:13	Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	323	3¢	$10	0x781e51…
10-07 18:05:33	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x087481…
10-07 17:31:49	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xb18a0c…
10-07 11:47:58	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xaf36d3…
10-07 11:47:46	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x28644f…
10-03 11:16:42	will gemini argon debut with a humanitys last exam score of 50 or higher	Yes	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x68fe50…
10-02 16:20:44	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x40eb2e…
10-02 16:18:48	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	37¢	$11	0x3883cd…
10-02 04:49:05	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x901b14…
10-02 04:46:32	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	293	63¢	$184	0x5d8579…
10-01 17:08:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xb9d1ee…
10-01 17:07:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x7be76b…
10-01 17:07:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x353454…
10-01 17:06:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0xb15909…
10-01 17:06:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x3d2b9e…
10-01 17:06:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	SELL	3	50¢	$2	0x9e046e…
10-01 17:05:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xfd0988…
10-01 17:01:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xf0e226…
10-01 16:57:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x66766b…
10-01 16:56:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x86c925…
10-01 16:56:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x9b354a…
10-01 16:55:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x95782b…
10-01 16:54:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xd92dba…
10-01 16:53:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	SELL	7	78¢	$5	0x4d0d7a…
10-01 16:52:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0xcb7f1b…
10-01 16:51:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x566b50…
10-01 16:51:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	SELL	4	18¢	$1	0x7663ae…
10-01 16:51:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x1432f6…
10-01 16:32:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0xa26667…
10-01 16:30:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x3b1973…
10-01 16:30:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x78b137…
10-01 16:28:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0xbaead7…
10-01 16:26:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0x82eaab…
10-01 16:25:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x0fcf8b…
10-01 16:19:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x14bc26…
10-01 16:19:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0x85ed9e…
10-01 16:19:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0xaeaa35…
10-01 15:59:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x226ae8…
10-01 15:53:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x8552d8…
10-01 15:52:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xb3d4af…
10-01 15:52:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	90¢	$4	0x1176d1…
10-01 15:47:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	SELL	8	92¢	$7	0xb0ed2e…
10-01 15:46:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xa81ff2…
10-01 15:46:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x149a11…
10-01 15:46:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xc9d8e0…
10-01 15:45:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x82bf50…
10-01 15:30:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x33342d…
10-01 15:30:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x1316a1…
10-01 15:30:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x00edd4…
10-01 15:30:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x003dc4…
10-01 15:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x9e9c7a…
10-01 15:28:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0x8cc75b…
10-01 15:26:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0x157180…
10-01 15:26:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x3e2be7…
10-01 15:25:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x0fbf0c…