Substantial-Behavior — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$16

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$564

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

$90

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 07-09 01:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

36% 100% +$1

Sports

24% — —

Politics

21% 100% +$16

Crypto

16% — —

Tech

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No		+91	$80	91¢	$83	+$3	06-04 08:17
Will USD/KRW hit 1400 (Low) in 2026?	Yes		+20	$6	36¢	$7	+$1	07-09 01:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the philadelphia eagles win super bowl 2026	1	$100	1,110	0	+1,110	open	—	01-06 01:02
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?	7	$85	500	0	+500	open	—	02-14 14:05
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	2	$80	91	0	+91	open	—	06-04 08:17
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	2	$37	41	0	+41	open	—	01-06 01:05
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$36	36	0	+36	open	—	01-06 01:02
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	1	$33	33	0	+33	open	—	01-06 01:09
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$30	31	0	+31	No	+$1	03-05 17:43
Trump out as President by June 30?	1	$26	26	0	+26	open	—	06-05 09:17
congress passes iran war powers resolution by march 31	1	$24	25	0	+25	open	—	03-05 17:44
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$23	23	0	+23	open	—	04-11 12:26
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$18	25	0	+25	open	—	02-13 23:18
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	1	$17	0	19	-19	open	—	06-05 10:00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	1	$12	28	0	+28	Yes	+$16	02-13 23:20
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	1	$12	20	0	+20	open	—	03-05 17:42
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	1	$9	10	0	+10	open	—	06-05 10:17
maduro mugshot released by monday	1	$9	9	0	+9	open	—	01-06 01:03
Will USD/KRW hit 1400 (Low) in 2026?	1	$6	20	0	+20	open	—	07-09 01:29
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	02-14 23:52
will openai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	2	$2	59	0	+59	open	—	02-13 23:18
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	9	$1	40	0	+40	open	—	01-06 01:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-09 01:29:29	Will USD/KRW hit 1400 (Low) in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x608b5f…
06-05 10:17:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x27bb1b…
06-05 10:00:58	Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	Yes	SELL	19	93¢	$17	0x65af60…
06-05 09:17:30	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xda141d…
06-04 08:17:52	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	48	88¢	$42	0x36e790…
06-04 08:17:39	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	43	87¢	$38	0xcb10b9…
04-11 12:26:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	23	98¢	$23	0x68e0f1…
03-05 17:44:23	congress passes iran war powers resolution by march 31	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0xbf08a8…
03-05 17:43:19	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x169421…
03-05 17:42:29	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x860f9a…
02-14 23:52:01	Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x19c033…
02-14 14:05:41	Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	31	17¢	$5	0x30d8bf…
02-14 12:00:53	Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0xa3500c…
02-14 10:06:47	Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	70	17¢	$12	0x2e20aa…
02-14 07:38:03	Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	24	17¢	$4	0xf48067…
02-13 23:54:29	Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	173	17¢	$29	0x52fabd…
02-13 23:54:01	Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	173	17¢	$29	0xc92f75…
02-13 23:20:37	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	44¢	$12	0xefa973…
02-13 23:18:45	will openai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	14	3¢	$0	0x82f19d…
02-13 23:18:39	Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	22	17¢	$4	0xc0bfb9…
02-13 23:18:19	will openai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	45	3¢	$1	0x1502d2…
02-13 23:18:11	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	25	72¢	$18	0xde14b6…
01-06 01:52:41	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	No	BUY	12	3¢	$0	0x676554…
01-06 01:52:31	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	No	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x447dd4…
01-06 01:47:39	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	No	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0x421ff7…
01-06 01:35:57	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	No	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x84ff88…
01-06 01:30:47	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	No	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0xa08054…
01-06 01:23:03	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	No	BUY	4	3¢	$0	0xae19a6…
01-06 01:21:35	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	No	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0xe595e4…
01-06 01:17:33	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	No	BUY	11	3¢	$0	0x8dcd47…
01-06 01:11:17	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	No	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x8f430d…
01-06 01:09:13	Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x538666…
01-06 01:05:05	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x5d4d6e…
01-06 01:04:51	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	No	BUY	21	89¢	$19	0xb2d439…
01-06 01:03:03	maduro mugshot released by monday	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xf9ddf1…
01-06 01:02:33	will the philadelphia eagles win super bowl 2026	Yes	BUY	1,110	9¢	$100	0x65fe36…
01-06 01:02:15	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	36	99¢	$36	0x25a3d9…