Another-Pass — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$73

Unrealized P&L

-$22

Hit rate

50.0%

Resolved

Trades

390

lifetime

Volume

$77.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$199

Open exposure

$378

1 position

First seen

2026-01-27

last 06-08 05:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

46% — —

Other

40% — —

Tech

6% — —

Sports

5% 50% $-73

Crypto

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No		+635	$400	60¢	$378	$-22	06-05 19:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	55	$26.3K	18,806	15,796	+3,010	open	—	02-19 09:59
will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	4	$6.3K	4,257	4,257	+0	open	—	02-18 20:55
will the dhs shutdown last 21 days or more 531	22	$6.2K	8,669	8,488	+181	open	—	02-23 10:53
cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	9	$5.5K	5,600	5,600	+0	open	—	03-17 16:02
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	19	$4.1K	5,721	5,676	+46	open	—	02-18 17:58
will sinners win best picture at the 98th academy awards	2	$2.3K	1,334	1,334	+0	open	—	02-18 15:27
will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	2	$2.0K	2,929	0	+2,929	open	—	01-27 12:04
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	6	$1.9K	1,361	1,000	+361	open	—	02-23 10:49
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?	5	$1.7K	2,218	2,218	+0	open	—	02-13 15:40
will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by february 28 2026 369	8	$1.4K	500	1,500	-1,000	open	—	02-18 20:53
netanyahu out by march 31 854	1	$1000	1,008	0	+1,008	open	—	03-25 07:41
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	2	$1000	1,013	0	+1,013	open	—	04-15 09:34
will the new england patriots win super bowl 2026	2	$949	2,931	0	+2,931	open	—	01-27 12:04
Netanyahu out by April 30?	1	$872	906	0	+906	open	—	03-29 18:39
donald trump of truth social posts february 13 february 20 120 139	13	$658	790	547	+243	open	—	02-18 16:51
will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	12	$658	676	904	-228	open	—	02-21 20:54
will the dhs shutdown last 14 days or more	26	$606	4,001	4,001	+0	open	—	02-19 07:22
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	1	$600	1,001	0	+1,001	open	—	01-27 11:50
will a 10 us blanket tariff be in effect on march 31	29	$598	1,300	2,520	-1,220	open	—	02-28 14:13
Will Howard Lutnick be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	2	$534	150	450	-300	open	—	02-15 16:28
Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026?	1	$500	544	0	+544	open	—	01-30 13:28
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	1	$500	515	0	+515	open	—	05-07 09:37
no change in bank of japans interest rates after march 2026 meeting	5	$497	610	0	+610	open	—	02-12 02:49
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	2	$492	553	0	+553	open	—	06-03 10:09
will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	24	$455	969	0	+969	open	—	03-08 15:48
will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	13	$422	969	0	+969	open	—	03-08 10:26
will bhumjaithai party bjt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	1	$400	1,047	0	+1,047	open	—	01-27 11:51
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	1	$400	635	0	+635	open	—	06-05 19:29
will gold gc hit low 4300 by end of march	3	$395	245	245	+0	open	—	03-26 13:47
trump declassifies new ufo files by march 31	4	$346	220	326	-106	open	—	02-22 16:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 05:22:15	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	No	BUY	140	74¢	$104	0x4fd004…
06-05 19:29:36	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	635	63¢	$400	0x81306d…
06-03 16:09:49	Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	BUY	19	78¢	$14	0x8fa5b0…
06-03 15:34:27	Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x716ca6…
06-03 14:59:58	Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	BUY	66	78¢	$51	0x177579…
06-03 14:19:07	Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	BUY	40	78¢	$31	0x75576b…
06-03 10:09:45	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	408	89¢	$363	0xc3eec6…
06-03 09:52:53	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	145	89¢	$129	0x6b5d80…
06-03 08:59:08	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	268	75¢	$200	0xde7cbd…
06-03 08:56:09	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	No	BUY	195	77¢	$150	0x0ce724…
06-03 08:55:40	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xc51853…
06-03 08:54:38	Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0x4cb4fb…
06-03 08:53:23	US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	233	86¢	$200	0x844534…
05-18 10:01:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	278	85¢	$236	0x61d583…
05-18 09:54:14	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x165706…
05-18 06:30:48	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	270	93¢	$251	0xe3b871…
05-18 05:56:37	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xec1c27…
05-11 11:18:35	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	44	92¢	$40	0x13e1ac…
05-11 10:46:32	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x7b1256…
05-11 08:57:06	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0x5ca7e5…
05-11 08:54:09	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	107	94¢	$100	0x493630…
05-11 08:46:01	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	No	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x2f9768…
05-07 09:46:26	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x86a940…
05-07 09:42:42	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x541ac3…
05-07 09:42:22	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	55	90¢	$50	0x65484f…
05-07 09:41:11	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x0cdd46…
05-07 09:37:58	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	No	BUY	515	97¢	$500	0xf2887c…
05-07 09:35:10	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0xebb4c3…
04-27 11:47:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	180	90¢	$162	0x1490da…
04-15 09:35:46	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	252	99¢	$250	0xd8a04e…
04-15 09:34:10	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	507	99¢	$500	0x6f6d96…
04-15 09:33:04	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	507	99¢	$500	0xda5de3…
04-15 09:32:26	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	255	98¢	$250	0x25b2d0…
04-15 09:24:32	Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x00fb59…
04-08 15:48:01	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	251	40¢	$100	0xc98645…
03-29 18:39:48	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	906	96¢	$872	0xc03dd1…
03-26 13:47:29	will gold gc hit low 4300 by end of march	No	SELL	215	80¢	$171	0x13efa4…
03-26 07:18:25	will gold gc hit low 4300 by end of march	No	SELL	29	80¢	$23	0x8cf5cb…
03-25 10:43:09	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0x16d01e…
03-25 10:40:33	will scottie scheffler win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x588ac7…
03-25 10:39:07	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	BUY	298	84¢	$250	0x54397f…
03-25 10:34:53	will gold gc hit low 4300 by end of march	No	BUY	245	82¢	$200	0x9e7dc1…
03-25 10:29:35	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	No	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x272dd3…
03-25 10:29:03	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0x8cdd8b…
03-25 10:24:27	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	131	76¢	$100	0x366c22…
03-25 10:24:15	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0xd65a88…
03-25 10:24:01	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x174e56…
03-25 10:23:39	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0xc2c0a4…
03-25 10:23:01	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0x8cd505…
03-25 10:17:53	Will France win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	113	88¢	$100	0x3d4190…
03-25 07:41:41	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	1,008	99¢	$1,000	0x3a8571…
03-17 16:02:25	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	UMBC Retrievers	SELL	2,800	50¢	$1,408	0x05d790…
03-17 15:59:49	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	UMBC Retrievers	BUY	1,600	51¢	$814	0xf2b998…
03-17 15:59:23	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	UMBC Retrievers	BUY	1,200	51¢	$611	0x083fb1…
03-17 15:34:09	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	SELL	2,800	48¢	$1,350	0x222c18…
03-17 15:23:57	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	1,043	48¢	$504	0xaf5388…
03-17 15:23:49	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xf76902…
03-17 15:23:47	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0x1db9b6…
03-17 15:23:45	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	1,647	48¢	$795	0x5fe1f3…
03-17 15:23:45	cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	Howard Bison	BUY	96	48¢	$46	0x095d73…
03-08 15:48:13	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x10c244…
03-08 10:26:43	will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xa564cb…
03-08 10:26:13	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	12	48¢	$6	0x46535a…
03-08 10:26:01	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	39	48¢	$19	0x4b4333…
03-08 10:11:45	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	3	47¢	$2	0xba0a3c…
03-08 10:11:11	will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	60	43¢	$26	0x5d7551…
03-08 09:50:41	will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x085237…
03-08 09:28:51	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	44	47¢	$21	0xa5aa14…
03-08 09:19:09	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	34	47¢	$16	0xcd9e5d…
03-08 09:16:21	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	36	47¢	$17	0x29d14a…
03-08 09:15:11	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x427a4a…
03-08 09:13:49	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	33	47¢	$16	0xe8d325…
03-08 09:09:23	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0xacf8ae…
03-08 09:08:03	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	31	47¢	$15	0x7187cf…
03-08 08:45:25	will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	85	43¢	$37	0x91c967…
03-08 08:38:01	will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0xa87379…
03-08 08:37:49	will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	121	43¢	$52	0x650190…
03-08 08:34:19	will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	15	43¢	$6	0x240024…
03-08 08:33:07	will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	49	43¢	$21	0xb4dc6c…
03-08 08:16:11	will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x875773…
03-08 08:04:15	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	32	47¢	$15	0x6fff60…
03-08 08:04:05	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	45	47¢	$21	0x6b47f5…
03-08 08:02:25	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	15	47¢	$7	0xd7e9ab…
03-08 08:01:53	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	22	47¢	$11	0xf67ad1…
03-08 08:00:19	will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	70	44¢	$31	0x53019e…
03-08 07:48:27	will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	30	43¢	$13	0x985b82…
03-08 07:48:27	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	35	47¢	$16	0x1a800d…
03-08 07:47:51	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	15	47¢	$7	0x7c6773…
03-08 07:26:25	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x73b45f…
03-08 07:14:15	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	41	47¢	$19	0xc61b08…
03-08 07:11:31	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xecfcb1…
03-08 07:07:37	will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	276	44¢	$121	0x07f80e…
03-08 07:03:19	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	200	47¢	$93	0x880a15…
03-08 07:01:21	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	55	47¢	$26	0xe91400…
03-08 07:00:35	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	34	47¢	$16	0xac17b7…
03-08 06:58:01	will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	227	44¢	$100	0xf8a5b0…
03-08 06:57:51	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	214	47¢	$100	0xba628d…
02-28 14:13:21	will a 10 us blanket tariff be in effect on march 31	No	SELL	83	12¢	$10	0x0c4788…
02-28 11:22:13	will scream 7 opening weekend box office be greater than 65m	Yes	BUY	185	81¢	$150	0xeedd16…
02-28 07:43:43	will a 10 us blanket tariff be in effect on march 31	No	SELL	474	12¢	$57	0xa4a60a…