Competent-Reasoning — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$78

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

51.9%

Resolved

111

Trades

462

lifetime

Volume

$2.71K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-15

last 05-16 14:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 55% +$104

Sports

1% 0% $-2

Politics

1% 0% $-24

Other

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 78 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	1	$40	80	0	+80	open	—	05-15 20:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	1	$37	73	0	+73	open	—	05-15 22:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	1	$33	66	0	+66	open	—	05-16 12:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	1	$30	67	0	+67	open	—	05-16 11:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	2	$29	20	20	+0	Up	+$9	05-13 09:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	1	$28	57	0	+57	open	—	05-16 14:00
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	1	$27	55	0	+55	open	—	05-16 12:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	2	$26	20	20	+0	Up	+$6	05-13 08:21
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	1	$25	51	0	+51	open	—	05-16 11:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	1	$24	48	0	+48	open	—	05-15 20:00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	2	$24	24,000	0	+24,000	Yes	$-24	05-09 19:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	1	$23	46	0	+46	open	—	05-16 02:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	1	$23	44	0	+44	open	—	05-16 03:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	1	$22	49	0	+49	open	—	05-16 13:30
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	1	$22	44	0	+44	open	—	05-16 13:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	1	$21	41	0	+41	open	—	05-15 12:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	1	$20	39	0	+39	open	—	05-15 17:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	1	$20	40	0	+40	open	—	05-14 13:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	1	$20	40	0	+40	open	—	05-14 14:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	1	$20	40	0	+40	open	—	05-15 20:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	1	$20	40	0	+40	open	—	05-15 22:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	1	$19	39	0	+39	open	—	05-15 23:45
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	1	$18	37	0	+37	open	—	05-16 13:45
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	1	$18	35	0	+35	open	—	05-15 22:15
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	1	$18	36	0	+36	open	—	05-16 14:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	1	$18	36	0	+36	open	—	05-16 02:30
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	1	$18	36	0	+36	open	—	05-16 02:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	1	$18	35	0	+35	open	—	05-15 21:30
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	1	$18	35	0	+35	open	—	05-16 01:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	1	$18	36	0	+36	open	—	05-16 05:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-16 14:30:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	36	50¢	$18	0x5456a9…
05-16 14:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	22	50¢	$11	0x46bc99…
05-16 14:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	57	50¢	$28	0x4595ee…
05-16 13:45:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	37	49¢	$18	0xa30f2c…
05-16 13:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	49	44¢	$22	0xc9f43f…
05-16 13:30:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	44	50¢	$22	0x83abec…
05-16 13:00:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	33	50¢	$17	0x3b8d9b…
05-16 12:45:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	55	50¢	$27	0xa60887…
05-16 12:45:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	66	50¢	$33	0xa4435c…
05-16 12:30:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	33	50¢	$17	0x7e89bd…
05-16 12:15:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	34	50¢	$17	0x3a39e9…
05-16 11:00:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	67	45¢	$30	0x588e0d…
05-16 11:00:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	51	50¢	$25	0x41d296…
05-16 10:45:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	36	49¢	$18	0x911d7e…
05-16 10:45:13	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	30	49¢	$15	0x3f897e…
05-16 08:15:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	23	49¢	$11	0x4ef6a7…
05-16 07:45:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	24	49¢	$12	0x7813bf…
05-16 07:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	24	47¢	$11	0xf44289…
05-16 06:00:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	30	46¢	$14	0x343a9e…
05-16 05:45:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	29	49¢	$14	0x2aee21…
05-16 05:00:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	36	49¢	$18	0xa1016d…
05-16 04:15:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0xf08deb…
05-16 04:00:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x96a6be…
05-16 03:15:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x461503…
05-16 03:00:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	44	51¢	$23	0xf52cbc…
05-16 02:45:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	29	51¢	$15	0x8a8802…
05-16 02:30:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	36	49¢	$18	0xf69ac8…
05-16 02:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	36	49¢	$18	0xf26170…
05-16 02:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	46	51¢	$23	0xbccbe1…
05-16 01:15:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	35	50¢	$18	0x734434…
05-16 01:15:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	28	50¢	$14	0x677950…
05-16 00:45:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	28	51¢	$14	0xabe793…
05-16 00:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	34	51¢	$17	0xd3dcb9…
05-15 23:45:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	39	50¢	$19	0x3004ec…
05-15 23:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x72dc51…
05-15 23:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x5630a0…
05-15 23:15:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	28	50¢	$14	0x68828b…
05-15 23:00:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x0a5a01…
05-15 22:45:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	73	51¢	$37	0x1db519…
05-15 22:30:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	30	51¢	$15	0xe03281…
05-15 22:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	25	51¢	$13	0xb242a3…
05-15 22:15:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	35	51¢	$18	0x35d218…
05-15 22:15:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	40	49¢	$20	0xf6ea92…
05-15 21:45:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xaa6661…
05-15 21:30:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	35	51¢	$18	0x52da8d…
05-15 21:00:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	30	48¢	$14	0x7e55d3…
05-15 20:30:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	23	49¢	$11	0xb3feda…
05-15 20:30:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	80	50¢	$40	0x2294bd…
05-15 20:15:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x91b411…
05-15 20:00:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	48	50¢	$24	0x9d9b04…
05-15 19:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	25	50¢	$12	0x21ad1d…
05-15 19:30:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	35	50¢	$18	0x209b87…
05-15 19:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	25	47¢	$12	0x961e63…
05-15 19:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xa006a5…
05-15 19:00:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x77399f…
05-15 18:45:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x08a4bd…
05-15 18:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	28	51¢	$14	0x1f9419…
05-15 17:45:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0xa37249…
05-15 17:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	29	50¢	$15	0xb9d969…
05-15 17:15:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	24	50¢	$12	0xe72baf…
05-15 17:00:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xfbb288…
05-15 16:00:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	24	50¢	$12	0x56ba18…
05-15 15:45:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	31	49¢	$15	0xedde54…
05-15 15:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	23	51¢	$12	0x72762a…
05-15 15:15:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	24	49¢	$12	0xafc185…
05-15 15:15:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	24	49¢	$12	0x8d6abc…
05-15 15:00:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	23	50¢	$12	0xcee01b…
05-15 14:45:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x8c40c9…
05-15 14:15:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x714fed…
05-15 14:15:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xa750ac…
05-15 13:30:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xef59ac…
05-15 13:00:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xc07b30…
05-15 12:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xe6c8c9…
05-15 12:30:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xdf93dd…
05-15 12:15:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	41	51¢	$21	0x3157ef…
05-15 11:45:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xcd95bc…
05-15 11:15:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x058367…
05-15 10:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xbf9d90…
05-15 10:45:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x250b5f…
05-15 10:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x15f72c…
05-15 10:00:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xdb2827…
05-15 09:30:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xa0928d…
05-15 09:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x2bd745…
05-15 09:00:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x68a283…
05-15 08:45:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0xf865e2…
05-15 08:45:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x2e60f5…
05-15 08:00:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xd809c2…
05-15 08:00:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x8f713e…
05-15 07:45:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xb80e76…
05-15 07:45:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x9cb0c1…
05-15 07:00:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x4c82b5…
05-15 06:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	27	49¢	$13	0x05bd75…
05-15 06:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x3f3d6c…
05-15 06:15:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x926d58…
05-15 06:15:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x820f76…
05-15 05:15:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xa8092f…
05-15 05:15:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x7a168e…
05-15 04:45:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xc2353a…
05-15 04:15:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x0cff14…
05-15 04:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x280cb0…