Ornery-Decryption — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

77.0%

Resolved

129

Trades

727

lifetime

Volume

$1.26K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-08

last 06-30 03:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Crypto

71% 65% +$11

Other

19% 37% $-5

Sports

7% 38% $-2

Politics

3% 0% $-3

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (14) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No		+2	$1	0¢	$0	$-1	06-12 05:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	2	$41	21	21	+0	Down	+$1	05-12 14:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	05-16 07:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	2	$20	11	11	+0	Down	+$0	05-13 21:09
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	5	$15	25	17	+7	open	—	05-26 20:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	2	$12	7	7	+0	Up	+$2	05-12 04:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6PM ET	9	$12	41	24	+17	open	—	05-01 22:58
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Elena Rybakina	3	$12	13	6	+7	Elina Svitolina	$-0	05-13 20:24
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Qinwen Zheng vs Jelena Ostapenko	2	$11	7	6	+0	Jelena Ostapenko	+$2	05-09 15:54
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Max Schoenhaus vs Luca Van Assche	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	05-16 10:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	2	$11	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	05-10 22:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	05-19 16:25
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	05-16 22:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	05-04 17:35
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	1	$10	15	0	+15	open	—	04-08 16:06
Geneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Miguel Damas	4	$9	9	4	+5	open	—	05-16 13:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	2	$9	8	8	+0	open	—	05-30 08:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	3	$8	4	4	+0	open	—	05-18 15:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	3	$8	9	4	+5	Down	$-0	05-07 14:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	2	$8	5	5	+0	Up	+$2	05-10 20:10
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	4	$7	10	10	+0	Timberwolves	+$3	05-05 04:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	4	$7	9	9	+0	Up	$-1	05-08 13:20
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	2	$7	6	6	+0	open	—	06-25 02:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	2	$7	4	4	+0	Up	+$1	05-13 14:26
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	4	$7	4	4	+0	open	—	05-16 04:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	05-15 19:30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	1	$7	7	0	+7	open	—	04-08 16:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	2	$6	4	4	+0	Up	+$2	05-12 19:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	2	$6	12	12	+0	Down	$-4	05-13 14:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	2	$6	3	3	+0	Up	+$0	05-08 04:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	2	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	05-02 10:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 03:11:53	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 team total away 0pt5	Over	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x7ee8c2…
06-29 19:09:17	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 team total away 0pt5	Over	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x02ab40…
06-29 19:07:17	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xce5700…
06-27 04:31:02	fifwc egy irn 2026 06 26 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x0db152…
06-26 21:15:50	fifwc jor arg 2026 06 27 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x396564…
06-26 21:13:20	fifwc egy irn 2026 06 26 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x4c76f2…
06-26 21:11:50	fifwc cvi ksa 2026 06 26 team total away 0pt5	Over	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0xa5d904…
06-26 21:11:11	fifwc cvi ksa 2026 06 26 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x9e60f7…
06-26 21:06:43	fifwc sen irq 2026 06 26 total 2pt5	Over	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xafcb66…
06-25 16:52:34	fifwc sen irq 2026 06 26 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x592b13…
06-25 02:59:41	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	6	85¢	$5	0x53e32f…
06-25 02:59:05	fifwc rsa kr 2026 06 24 total 2pt5	Under	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x98ad69…
06-24 15:25:16	fifwc rsa kr 2026 06 24 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	3	54¢	$1	0x233c98…
06-24 15:23:20	fifwc mar hai 2026 06 24 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xe7b881…
06-24 03:03:22	fifwc col cdr 2026 06 23 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xdc9495…
06-23 03:44:07	fifwc jor alg 2026 06 22 team total home 0pt5	Over	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xde3de7…
06-23 03:43:43	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xce2726…
06-23 03:43:29	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	3	89¢	$2	0xa1372f…
06-22 19:44:47	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 team total home 2pt5	Over	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0x46d3b0…
06-22 19:43:10	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x4bb593…
06-22 16:44:58	fifwc jor alg 2026 06 22 team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x418567…
06-22 04:02:08	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x15ac2e…
06-22 04:01:14	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 spread home 1pt5	Austria	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xa30e48…
06-21 18:06:08	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 btts	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x387272…
06-21 16:13:35	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 btts	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x782591…
06-20 04:38:25	fifwc tur par 2026 06 19 team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x499e17…
06-20 04:37:58	fifwc tur par 2026 06 19 btts	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xf88818…
06-19 17:59:01	btc updown 5m 1781891700	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xc4bb5b…
06-19 17:53:22	btc updown 5m 1781891400	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x65c815…
06-16 18:06:10	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xba1675…
06-15 20:32:28	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 spread home 1pt5	Belgium	SELL	3	10¢	$0	0x76a461…
06-15 18:04:21	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x91d946…
06-15 18:03:34	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 spread home 1pt5	Belgium	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xe09e16…
06-14 22:10:33	fifwc swe tun 2026 06 14 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x4201ad…
06-14 22:05:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0x13add1…
06-14 22:04:01	fifwc civ ecu 2026 06 14 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0xb7409e…
06-14 00:06:06	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xc4b933…
06-13 14:31:34	atp sanchis boyer 2026 06 13	Tristan Boyer	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x1a642f…
06-13 06:47:13	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x1946b7…
06-13 06:46:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x517328…
06-12 05:13:54	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x6b2017…
06-07 20:21:54	mlb mil col 2026 06 07	Colorado Rockies	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x104785…
06-07 20:21:31	mlb cin stl 2026 06 07	Cincinnati Reds	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xeca749…
06-06 20:08:28	mlb kc min 2026 06 06	Minnesota Twins	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xc40af9…
06-06 16:06:37	wta eala masarov 2026 06 06	Alexandra Eala	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd93484…
06-06 14:51:55	atp jo mochizu 2026 06 06	Alexander Maarten Jong	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x6f3fae…
06-06 13:54:01	atp jo mochizu 2026 06 06	Alexander Maarten Jong	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x1cb972…
06-06 13:52:21	wta eala masarov 2026 06 06	Alexandra Eala	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xd677e8…
06-06 13:46:06	wta vandewi barthel 2026 06 06	Hanne Vandewinkel	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x7f21ac…
06-06 11:54:12	wta vandewi barthel 2026 06 06	Hanne Vandewinkel	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x6f16e6…
06-06 02:36:27	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June?	No	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0xd998c5…
06-05 14:48:55	atp cecchin skatov 2026 06 05	Timofey Skatov	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xd83231…
06-05 13:45:03	atp cecchin skatov 2026 06 05	Timofey Skatov	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x232808…
06-04 03:55:21	wta radivoj ristic 2026 06 03	Mia Ristic	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x1354e5…
06-03 14:22:52	Birmingham: Ugo Blanchet vs Felix Gill	Felix Gill	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xa0d407…
06-02 19:42:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x21324c…
06-02 03:44:42	Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May?	Yes	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0x940c77…
06-01 20:45:40	Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi	Frances Tiafoe	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x3a6580…
06-01 18:16:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	56¢	$1	0x5050f9…
06-01 18:14:56	Heilbronn: Lorenzo Giustino vs Marko Topo	Lorenzo Giustino	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x27351d…
06-01 13:11:02	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x8b69d1…
06-01 03:25:14	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xa4ad93…
06-01 03:24:40	San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies	San Francisco Giants	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xc7195a…
05-31 20:44:13	New York Yankees vs. Athletics	Athletics	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xd66844…
05-31 19:47:41	San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies	San Francisco Giants	BUY	2	71¢	$1	0xda31ef…
05-31 19:46:59	Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox	Detroit Tigers	BUY	2	72¢	$1	0xf44ed0…
05-30 14:39:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0x38ecc7…
05-30 14:38:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x435337…
05-30 14:36:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	SELL	3	41¢	$1	0x4461b5…
05-30 14:35:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xbab6a9…
05-30 14:35:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd62c55…
05-30 14:34:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x683ffb…
05-30 12:17:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	42¢	$2	0x272e34…
05-30 12:12:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x82e45b…
05-30 12:08:37	Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka	Naomi Osaka	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xadfa8f…
05-30 12:05:49	Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka	Naomi Osaka	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x987c8e…
05-30 08:29:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xa19275…
05-30 08:14:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	8	69¢	$6	0xb1913f…
05-30 08:11:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x4eca53…
05-30 08:06:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x91a303…
05-30 08:02:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xcf24ab…
05-30 05:56:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x8ede2c…
05-30 05:55:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2e774c…
05-30 05:53:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x7f2757…
05-30 05:50:00	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x9f42a8…
05-30 05:45:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xfa92f6…
05-30 05:43:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xfa8314…
05-30 05:35:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$1	0xbc143b…
05-30 05:34:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xddd3ac…
05-30 05:33:33	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June?	No	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x85e727…
05-30 05:33:09	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x5f722f…
05-30 02:16:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x419d97…
05-30 02:15:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x17f384…
05-30 02:13:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	74¢	$1	0xf78daf…
05-29 21:16:05	Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul	Casper Ruud	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x3b80f6…
05-29 21:02:58	Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x6d27c5…
05-29 21:02:32	Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds	Atlanta Braves	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xb8bd51…
05-29 20:12:18	Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul	Casper Ruud	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xaf517e…
05-29 19:10:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xabaa3d…
05-29 19:07:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x8c03b3…