Wary-Trousers — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$118

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

123

Trades

148

lifetime

Volume

$3.06K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

$148

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 10-27 19:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Other

72% 96% +$111

Politics

20% 100% +$7

Crypto

8% 100% +$1

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No		+157	$149	94¢	$148	-$1	10-27 19:21
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	No		+0	$0	100¢	$0	+$0	10-13 07:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	5	$501	261	261	+0	No	+$1	08-25 14:11
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	3	$282	214	72	+142	No	+$3	09-14 15:35
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	2	$271	139	139	+0	Yes	+$2	10-12 23:28
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	2	$259	130	130	+0	No	+$0	08-22 13:48
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	2	$214	149	149	+0	open	—	10-25 22:45
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	2	$164	89	89	+0	open	—	10-04 03:09
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	1	$149	157	0	+157	open	—	10-27 19:21
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$141	71	71	+0	Yes	+$1	09-10 19:58
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$139	139	0	+139	Yes	+$0	10-05 01:24
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	2	$126	64	64	+0	No	+$3	10-02 18:02
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	1	$86	86	0	+86	No	+$0	08-29 07:06
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	1	$82	82	0	+82	Yes	+$0	09-22 15:22
us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	1	$70	70	0	+70	No	+$1	09-04 19:31
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$69	148	148	+0	Yes	+$1	10-19 13:40
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in August?	1	$45	46	0	+46	No	+$0	08-27 12:56
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$35	35	0	+35	Yes	+$0	08-05 06:18
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	1	$32	32	0	+32	No	+$0	08-10 22:42
untitled market 1 20260803235754057	1	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	08-14 07:42
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	1	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	08-13 03:10
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	08-12 03:18
will google have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	1	$19	19	0	+19	Yes	+$0	03-31 12:54
will spy reach 770 in june 2026	1	$18	18	0	+18	No	+$0	06-29 19:48
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	3	$13	7	7	+0	open	—	10-13 07:02
Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?	1	$13	13	0	+13	No	+$0	06-28 22:47
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	05-31 11:25
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	1	$11	11	0	+11	No	+$0	07-31 05:47
googl above 270 on january 30 2026	1	$10	10	0	+10	Yes	+$0	01-23 21:32
nvda above 130 on february 27 2026	1	$7	7	0	+7	Yes	+$0	02-24 18:04
will bitcoin reach 80000 in february 298	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	02-26 15:14
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	2	$5	37	37	+0	No	+$5	10-25 22:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 19:21:36	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	157	95¢	$149	0x084788…
10-25 22:51:17	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	SELL	37	14¢	$5	0x020be6…
10-25 22:45:38	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	149	73¢	$109	0x4653b8…
10-23 01:52:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	37	0¢	$0	0x978f94…
10-22 11:12:29	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	149	71¢	$106	0xb83ac6…
10-19 13:40:36	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	148	24¢	$35	0xd6cdfd…
10-17 21:22:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	148	23¢	$34	0x5b4e79…
10-13 07:02:25	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xeeac3f…
10-13 06:58:47	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x292176…
10-12 23:28:35	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	139	98¢	$136	0xdf492a…
10-12 22:03:36	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	139	97¢	$135	0x56b4b0…
10-05 01:24:17	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	139	100¢	$139	0x7de3b7…
10-04 03:09:11	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	89	92¢	$82	0x7ea648…
10-03 05:12:26	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x34c1f6…
10-02 18:02:44	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	64	100¢	$64	0xf53597…
09-25 02:50:32	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	89	92¢	$82	0x2e740e…
09-22 15:22:43	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	82	100¢	$82	0x3fcd2d…
09-16 08:30:22	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	64	95¢	$61	0xa4102b…
09-14 15:35:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	142	100¢	$142	0x1dec77…
09-11 20:10:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	SELL	72	98¢	$71	0x0e184a…
09-10 19:58:22	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	71	100¢	$71	0x91712c…
09-10 19:38:46	laptop fdv above 1pt5b one day after launch	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1de22a…
09-10 10:54:51	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	71	99¢	$70	0x1bb9e6…
09-04 19:31:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	70	99¢	$70	0x8f5616…
09-04 08:40:07	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	72	95¢	$69	0x94c57a…
08-29 07:06:28	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	86	100¢	$86	0x25bc11…
08-27 21:37:25	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xaadc6d…
08-27 12:56:13	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in August?	No	BUY	46	100¢	$45	0xcc6219…
08-27 00:51:46	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x0cba80…
08-25 14:11:28	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	131	96¢	$126	0xe790cd…
08-25 08:44:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	131	96¢	$125	0x02b1fa…
08-24 14:48:18	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	80	96¢	$77	0x392273…
08-24 14:29:51	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x0f9565…
08-23 21:41:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	130	96¢	$125	0x6c89c9…
08-23 20:10:40	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x291f44…
08-23 20:09:40	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xa04a58…
08-23 19:53:52	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xc22bab…
08-22 13:48:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	SELL	130	100¢	$130	0xd228b7…
08-22 01:22:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	130	100¢	$129	0x347b92…
08-21 16:35:30	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xaabad8…
08-18 02:48:13	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xb583c3…
08-14 07:42:28	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x499ecc…
08-13 17:03:34	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 13?	No	BUY	70	0¢	$0	0xf4c7a9…
08-13 03:10:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x0c5754…
08-12 03:18:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x500a5d…
08-11 15:53:43	will xauusd dip to 3500 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0xc83436…
08-10 22:42:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x291420…
08-07 06:12:54	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6cfca5…
08-05 23:49:39	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x906c56…
08-05 06:18:38	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x9a328e…
08-04 20:49:03	will xauusd reach 4700 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xafaa7c…
08-03 20:10:51	will bitcoin reach 100k in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4e1f15…
07-31 05:47:30	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xafbe46…
07-31 04:48:00	will xauusd reach 4400 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x168192…
07-30 03:31:17	will ethereum reach 2200 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xbebed4…
07-29 20:14:26	will bitcoin dip to 50k in july 2026 812	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb7074b…
07-29 18:15:42	will ethereum reach 2500 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc3a1f4…
07-29 13:14:17	will spy dip to 690 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2adc50…
07-29 01:12:51	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 in July?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0ab3fe…
07-27 17:34:48	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x67786c…
07-27 11:58:42	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x808d02…
07-27 08:50:27	will xagusd reach 70 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x128520…
07-25 13:03:49	will bitcoin reach 80k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6fe555…
07-25 08:06:52	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd04c52…
07-25 00:46:51	will bitcoin dip to 50k in july 2026 812	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3b29ce…
07-24 21:34:46	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1261b5…
07-24 19:46:15	will xagusd dip to 44 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa458ae…
07-23 20:59:12	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5005d8…
07-23 00:43:03	will xauusd dip to 3600 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x17ec3d…
07-20 23:41:27	will ethereum dip to 1000 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x641a82…
07-17 09:33:34	will xauusd reach 4600 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9ca383…
07-14 17:20:01	will xauusd dip to 3500 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x69096f…
07-05 02:57:35	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7d3837…
06-29 19:48:55	will spy reach 770 in june 2026	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xa5acad…
06-28 22:47:55	Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x10fdc0…
06-27 15:42:31	Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x681770…
06-27 07:17:46	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x6daa9d…
06-26 12:54:44	will spy reach 790 in june 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x213bde…
05-31 11:25:58	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xc26d18…
05-11 00:43:06	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x86afb5…
05-10 15:15:24	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd37c98…
05-10 05:10:24	Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4c42b1…
05-10 04:02:35	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc8ab66…
05-09 16:09:03	Will Solana dip to $20 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xdc3efe…
05-07 14:03:44	Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb6b120…
05-05 23:35:22	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x76cc92…
05-05 17:44:32	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xab34ee…
05-05 15:39:22	Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x132e33…
05-05 13:30:52	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x44e633…
05-05 06:05:14	Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x420809…
05-05 04:02:32	Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xfa323c…
04-22 09:47:46	Will XRP dip to $0.60 in April?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x017ff8…
04-21 16:46:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x466784…
04-19 18:57:26	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x885a04…
04-19 02:48:36	Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x034f2e…
04-18 20:56:22	Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0xbc97e1…
04-18 11:29:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xf0bdde…
04-17 04:58:08	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xa42a4c…
04-15 20:18:42	Will BNB reach $900 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xa9fc0d…
04-15 10:04:58	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x349e4e…