Late-Crust — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.55K

Unrealized P&L

+$7

Hit rate

87.0%

Resolved

210

Trades

713

lifetime

Volume

$11.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

$40

1 position

First seen

2026-05-25

last 10-11 19:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 51 days

Categories

Other

68% 78% +$1,263

Politics

19% 74% +$216

Sports

10% 60% +$81

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Tech

1% 50% -$16

Crypto

0% 100% +$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will strc hit 100 by december 31 20260618001621119	Yes		+50	$33	80¢	$40	+$7	06-19 14:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	2	$905	500	500	+0	No	-$5	10-11 18:53
Will Team Falcons Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	6	$752	505	500	+5	No	+$148	07-31 13:05
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 11?	12	$321	207	207	+0	No	+$2	10-11 19:01
will elena gabriela ruse advance to the semifinals in ladies singles at wimbledon 2026 20260629193807029	2	$118	80	80	+0	No	+$35	06-30 17:02
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	5	$116	74	74	+0	No	+$14	06-27 22:14
will trump say get out and vote during tele rally 20260608165428975	5	$112	70	70	+0	Yes	+$25	06-08 21:42
will trump say south carolina 7 times during tele rally 20260608165428963	6	$111	72	72	+0	Yes	+$31	06-08 21:43
Will "Swapped" be the top global Netflix movie this week?	3	$109	62	62	+0	No	+$13	06-18 03:23
Will "Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief" be the top global Netflix movie this week?	3	$109	62	62	+0	No	+$13	06-18 03:23
Will "GOAT" be the top global Netflix movie this week?	3	$108	61	61	+0	No	+$14	06-18 03:23
Will Ghools Esports Win the Challengers 2026: EMEA Last Chance Qualifier?	2	$107	60	60	+0	No	+$12	07-09 10:10
Will "Ticket To Paradise (2022)" be the top global Netflix movie this week?	3	$106	60	60	-0	No	+$13	06-18 03:23
Will Pavel Bittner win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?	6	$106	66	66	+0	No	+$25	07-09 13:05
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top global Netflix movie this week?	3	$104	62	62	+0	No	+$7	06-18 23:05
will coco gauff advance to the fourth round round of 16 in ladies singles at wimbledon 2026 20260629185141949	3	$104	60	60	+0	Yes	+$14	07-03 18:48
Will "Fast Charlie" be the top global Netflix movie this week?	3	$100	57	57	+0	No	+$13	06-18 03:23
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	3	$100	60	60	+0	No	+$18	06-27 12:53
Will Stefan Krkobabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	5	$98	62	62	+0	open	—	07-04 12:59
will marta kostyuk advance to the fourth round round of 16 in ladies singles at wimbledon 2026 20260629185141965	3	$95	70	70	+0	Yes	+$43	07-04 13:14
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	2	$95	57	57	+0	No	+$17	06-27 12:54
will linda noskova advance to the fourth round round of 16 in ladies singles at wimbledon 2026 20260629185141997	2	$95	60	60	+0	Yes	+$24	07-04 17:37
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?	2	$94	57	57	+0	No	+$19	06-25 13:28
Will Max Walker win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?	6	$93	57	57	+0	No	+$19	07-09 13:05
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?	5	$93	58	58	+0	No	+$23	06-25 09:33
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	6	$92	57	57	+0	No	+$22	06-25 09:33
Progressive (PGR) Q2 combined ratio 92%-95%?	8	$90	57	57	+0	No	+$23	07-10 22:47
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?	3	$89	58	58	+0	No	+$22	06-28 03:15
Will IGNITE Gaming Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	13	$89	60	50	+10	No	+$14	07-12 23:54
Pepsi (PEP) Q2 organic revenue growth <2%?	4	$89	56	56	+0	No	+$23	07-09 10:02
untitled market 1 20260629184900516	2	$89	50	50	+0	Yes	+$10	07-03 17:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-11 19:01:42	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 11?	No	SELL	7	77¢	$6	0x36214c…
10-11 18:53:13	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	SELL	500	90¢	$450	0x267760…
10-11 18:53:04	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 11?	No	SELL	7	78¢	$6	0x591c3f…
10-11 18:50:24	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 11?	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x33b1db…
10-11 18:38:15	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 11?	No	SELL	40	78¢	$31	0x8664b2…
10-11 18:36:06	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 11?	No	SELL	45	78¢	$35	0x82936c…
10-11 18:34:24	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 11?	No	SELL	30	78¢	$24	0xd6c9ce…
10-11 18:34:22	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 11?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0xe9f334…
10-11 18:34:15	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 11?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0x1e9ef6…
10-11 18:34:03	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 11?	No	SELL	7	78¢	$6	0x8513bf…
10-11 18:34:01	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 11?	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0xc66259…
10-11 18:34:01	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 11?	No	SELL	25	78¢	$20	0x300bf2…
10-11 18:31:09	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 11?	No	BUY	200	77¢	$154	0x9516df…
10-11 18:30:52	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0x3a33ba…
07-31 13:05:23	Will Team Falcons Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	360	90¢	$324	0x40fd51…
07-31 13:05:23	Will Team Falcons Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	140	90¢	$126	0x16a11a…
07-26 10:50:36	Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 223+ House seats after the 2026 midterms?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xe3b8b4…
07-26 07:33:01	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 3.2% and 4.0%?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xc9c9b3…
07-23 20:05:06	Will Ariana Grande be the third most streamed artist for 2026?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xf2a9d6…
07-23 20:05:06	Will Billie Eilish be the third most streamed artist for 2026?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xb079d2…
07-23 20:05:06	Will Billie Eilish be the third most streamed artist for 2026?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$15	0x3cb6ca…
07-23 20:05:06	Will Ariana Grande be the third most streamed artist for 2026?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0x0dbc8b…
07-22 14:16:03	Will Team Falcons Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	BUY	325	60¢	$195	0x9e50fc…
07-22 12:20:30	Will Team Falcons Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x040435…
07-21 23:08:21	Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 223+ House seats after the 2026 midterms?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xbe1019…
07-21 23:08:19	Will Republicans hold 53+ Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf5598d…
07-21 05:06:24	Will Team Falcons Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	BUY	125	60¢	$75	0xfe1d1a…
07-19 06:49:36	Will Ariana Grande be the third most streamed artist for 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x30bae4…
07-18 11:59:01	Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?	No	SELL	7	90¢	$6	0x9b3756…
07-17 23:07:25	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 3.2% and 4.0%?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xfdd84f…
07-16 18:09:04	Will Republicans hold 53+ Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x548dd2…
07-16 18:09:02	Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 223+ House seats after the 2026 midterms?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x9bde66…
07-16 16:52:20	Will Japan's core CPI increase by at least 4.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x0b9459…
07-15 20:53:14	Will Japan's core CPI increase by at least 4.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x81c026…
07-15 19:08:55	Will Japan's core CPI increase by at least 4.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x9e9662…
07-14 12:00:52	will citigroup c q2 provision for credit losses be above 3pt1b	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0xce9092…
07-13 00:57:17	Will Japan's core CPI increase by at least 4.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x59b081…
07-13 00:57:17	Will Japan's core CPI increase by at least 4.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x05520e…
07-12 23:59:35	Will Team Spirit Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x1d3718…
07-12 23:54:49	Will Team Vamos Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xb1b810…
07-12 23:54:49	Will IGNITE Gaming Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x8dd798…
07-12 14:00:37	Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 3.5 and 3.9% in 2026?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0xcbbffd…
07-12 14:00:37	Will Japan's core CPI increase by at least 4.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x721b83…
07-12 04:14:47	Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 1.2% and 1.4%?	No	SELL	8	95¢	$8	0x914ca6…
07-12 01:16:19	Will Team Spirit Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	22	97¢	$21	0xb82a25…
07-12 00:39:28	Will Team Vamos Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xed6fdd…
07-12 00:39:28	Will IGNITE Gaming Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xaeb88d…
07-12 00:39:28	Will Team Spirit Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x8a2969…
07-11 23:35:58	Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be at least 1.5%?	No	SELL	30	95¢	$28	0x4dc6cf…
07-11 23:23:38	Will Team Spirit Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x37b425…
07-11 23:23:38	Will Team Vamos Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x198e63…
07-11 23:23:37	Will IGNITE Gaming Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x0fef59…
07-11 23:21:02	Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 1.2% and 1.4%?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x92af5a…
07-11 23:15:20	Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be less than 0.0%?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x043bfa…
07-11 22:11:17	Will IGNITE Gaming Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xb0c5cc…
07-11 22:11:17	Will Team Vamos Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x7d8953…
07-11 21:23:28	Will IGNITE Gaming Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xd052fb…
07-11 21:23:26	Will Team Spirit Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xa82401…
07-11 21:23:22	Will Team Vamos Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xd931ac…
07-11 21:07:05	Will IGNITE Gaming Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x32fd71…
07-11 21:07:04	Will Team Vamos Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xd82239…
07-11 21:07:04	Will Team Spirit Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0x0c22b4…
07-11 20:53:38	Will IGNITE Gaming Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xebbc87…
07-11 20:53:38	Will Team Vamos Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xd1577e…
07-11 18:51:17	Will Team Spirit Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xb391a8…
07-11 18:51:17	Will IGNITE Gaming Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x985f80…
07-11 18:51:17	Will Team Vamos Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x88879d…
07-11 09:22:59	Progressive (PGR) Q2 combined ratio 95%+?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x26098a…
07-11 07:49:08	Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 1.2% and 1.4%?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xe194d0…
07-10 23:58:20	Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?	No	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0xb49633…
07-10 22:47:29	Progressive (PGR) Q2 combined ratio 95%+?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xf131af…
07-10 22:47:28	Progressive (PGR) Q2 combined ratio 92%-95%?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x6436ae…
07-10 22:46:11	Progressive (PGR) Q2 combined ratio 92%-95%?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x4b4a18…
07-10 20:57:20	Progressive (PGR) Q2 combined ratio 95%+?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xbe1c46…
07-10 20:57:20	Progressive (PGR) Q2 combined ratio 92%-95%?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x0fc4c6…
07-10 19:54:20	Will Team Spirit Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?	No	SELL	6	97¢	$5	0xb56972…
07-10 19:42:26	Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 3.5 and 3.9% in 2026?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x451eaa…
07-10 19:04:40	Progressive (PGR) Q2 combined ratio 92%-95%?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x48bb6b…
07-10 18:03:07	Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be less than 0.0%?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x43a6e2…
07-10 15:03:02	Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 3.5 and 3.9% in 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x18c55e…
07-10 13:25:49	Will Love Island USA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 10?	No	SELL	52	99¢	$51	0xa85ff5…
07-10 05:25:10	Progressive (PGR) Q2 combined ratio 95%+?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x6fc61d…
07-10 05:25:04	Progressive (PGR) Q2 combined ratio 95%+?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xb0c132…
07-10 05:25:04	Progressive (PGR) Q2 combined ratio 92%-95%?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x8f0369…
07-10 05:25:04	Progressive (PGR) Q2 combined ratio 92%-95%?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x418eca…
07-10 05:25:04	Progressive (PGR) Q2 combined ratio 92%-95%?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x3c30b7…
07-09 14:14:56	Will Nicolas Vinokurov win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x3487e1…
07-09 13:05:16	Will Max Walker win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xe9a3df…
07-09 13:05:16	Will Nicolas Vinokurov win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xe0d78c…
07-09 13:05:16	Will Pavel Bittner win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x5d7d1b…
07-09 12:25:49	Will Pavel Bittner win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0xe605c2…
07-09 12:25:49	Will Nicolas Vinokurov win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x7dfa9e…
07-09 12:25:49	Will Max Walker win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x7d5f29…
07-09 12:25:49	Will Ewen Costiou win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x5caf01…
07-09 10:10:16	Will Ghools Esports Win the Challengers 2026: EMEA Last Chance Qualifier?	No	SELL	60	99¢	$59	0x66236a…
07-09 10:02:25	Pepsi (PEP) Q2 organic revenue growth <2%?	No	SELL	51	99¢	$51	0xf82eeb…
07-09 07:44:37	Pepsi (PEP) Q2 organic revenue growth 3.5%+?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xad6779…
07-09 07:44:35	Pepsi (PEP) Q2 organic revenue growth 3.5%+?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xba1619…
07-09 05:45:44	Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 10?	No	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0x21bc3c…
07-09 04:23:25	Pepsi (PEP) Q2 organic revenue growth 3.5%+?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xcc674f…