Long-Thesis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$142

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

71.1%

Resolved

5,652

Trades

6,322

lifetime

Volume

$21.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-10

last 10-29 11:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 178 days

Categories

Other

48% 69% +$192

Crypto

45% 63% -$273

Sports

5% 58% -$64

Pop-Culture

0% 78% -$1

Politics

0% 62% +$4

Tech

0% 71% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 188 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No		+5	$2	4¢	$0	-$1	05-21 03:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in seoul on march 10 2026 7c	9	$71	133	90	+43	Yes	+$72	03-10 04:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	12	$38	40	15	+25	Up	-$1	05-27 08:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	9	$28	20	20	+0	Down	+$11	05-27 07:40
highest temperature in seoul on march 10 2026 8corhigher	5	$26	30	30	+0	No	+$16	03-10 04:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	8	$20	35	5	+30	Down	-$13	05-27 08:12
Will Drake have exactly 9 songs in the Billboard top 10?	4	$19	15	5	+10	Yes	+$0	05-24 15:27
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	4	$18	10	10	+0	Team WE	$0	05-30 12:40
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	4	$18	15	5	+10	JD Gaming	+$2	05-29 11:39
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5	5	$17	15	10	+5	Over	+$3	05-26 02:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	12	$17	35	0	+35	Up	-$12	05-27 07:28
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26?	4	$16	10	10	+0	No	+$1	05-26 05:33
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5	7	$16	20	15	+5	Under	+$2	05-24 20:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	4	$16	20	0	+20	Up	-$16	05-28 00:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	4	$15	20	0	+20	Down	$0	05-28 00:09
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	6	$15	20	5	+15	Down	-$5	05-27 08:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	4	$15	20	0	+20	Down	-$10	05-28 00:22
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	4	$15	10	10	+0	T1	$0	05-28 12:18
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	4	$14	10	10	+0	Nongshim Red Force	$0	05-28 09:24
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	5	$13	25	0	+25	Up	-$8	05-27 07:28
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	5	$13	25	0	+25	Down	-$3	05-27 08:33
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-04 02:45 UTC	4	$13	16	12	+4	Up	+$3	07-04 02:50
Thunder vs. Spurs	4	$13	10	10	+0	Thunder	+$0	05-23 00:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	4	$13	19	0	+19	Up	+$6	05-28 00:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	3	$13	15	0	+15	Up	+$2	05-28 00:03
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	4	$13	20	0	+20	Down	-$3	05-27 08:43
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5	5	$13	15	10	+5	Over	-$2	05-24 02:24
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5	5	$13	15	10	+5	Under	-$3	05-22 04:33
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	5	$12	15	10	+5	Knicks	-$2	05-24 01:17
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5	4	$12	10	10	+0	Over	+$1	05-24 02:17
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	3	$12	10	5	+5	Dplus KIA	+$3	05-31 12:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 11:09:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	43¢	$2	0xe7cc09…
10-29 06:56:43	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xce6e60…
10-29 06:40:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x0b6643…
10-29 04:13:50	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 29?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x8a6790…
10-28 18:07:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x968d41…
10-28 13:22:40	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x95963d…
10-28 10:25:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xd19672…
10-28 02:47:44	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 28?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xb703bf…
10-28 02:47:44	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 28?	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x190ce8…
10-28 02:09:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xaf7e9b…
10-27 19:10:05	Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x051c08…
10-27 18:36:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x66b04b…
10-27 15:57:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x0136fa…
10-26 22:36:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xb034e7…
10-26 20:52:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xe835b7…
10-26 10:56:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xd6651d…
10-25 23:48:33	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 26?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xd82326…
10-25 23:48:33	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on October 26?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x1fe446…
10-25 21:27:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	88¢	$5	0x91a571…
10-25 18:57:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x9140c7…
10-25 18:43:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x24a65b…
10-25 16:26:35	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 26?	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xeb956e…
10-25 16:26:33	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 26?	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x95ac1f…
10-25 04:58:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x12811a…
10-25 04:27:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x41f690…
10-25 04:25:00	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xed667c…
10-25 04:13:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x53d134…
10-25 03:13:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xcb096b…
10-25 02:57:26	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xddbbc7…
10-24 23:13:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x2200c0…
10-24 13:57:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xf0bca6…
10-24 04:23:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x9c91c1…
10-23 20:37:47	Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x10cb36…
10-23 19:37:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xd8f49a…
10-23 18:35:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xbb6e8b…
10-23 08:35:54	Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x40520c…
10-23 04:36:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xb69184…
10-23 03:39:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x536ab1…
10-23 01:12:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x64fa1c…
10-22 23:44:47	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 23?	No	BUY	8	42¢	$3	0x613f77…
10-22 21:05:57	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x7e7e45…
10-22 18:08:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xcad255…
10-22 13:55:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x12f9f1…
10-22 12:06:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x7e5807…
10-22 01:19:17	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 22?	No	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xa106c4…
10-21 20:41:39	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 22?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xc8d6e3…
10-21 13:13:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x28b785…
10-21 08:56:45	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x9cad29…
10-21 07:56:11	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 21?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf25065…
10-20 21:38:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0xac072a…
10-20 15:26:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x603237…
10-20 11:07:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x04eb11…
10-20 07:35:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xce7927…
10-20 05:00:54	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xb9d4c7…
10-19 11:40:48	Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x8c3e55…
10-19 06:57:12	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 19?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x475505…
10-19 06:41:27	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 19?	No	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0x19e7c5…
10-18 19:49:50	Solana Up or Down - October 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xa3e63e…
10-18 17:14:27	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x0f33c4…
10-18 16:45:50	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on October 19?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x322599…
10-18 14:45:15	Will FC CFR 1907 Cluj win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xc58a95…
10-18 14:25:35	Will FC Lorient win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xc5264f…
10-18 13:38:23	Will Novara FC win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x1a522b…
10-18 13:32:53	Solana Up or Down - October 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x048f8c…
10-18 13:30:09	Will FC Astana win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x01de44…
10-18 13:07:50	XRP Up or Down - October 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xe85aa7…
10-18 12:56:15	Solana Up or Down - October 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x795ecb…
10-18 12:20:11	Will Albion FC win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x2723b8…
10-18 11:56:51	Solana Up or Down - October 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x8865be…
10-18 10:44:14	XRP Up or Down - October 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	59¢	$3	0xfa5884…
10-18 10:34:44	Will Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xde5a59…
10-18 10:30:18	Will Port FC win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x15319b…
10-18 10:13:09	XRP Up or Down - October 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xe95fd0…
10-18 10:12:33	Solana Up or Down - October 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x909bf3…
10-18 09:56:09	Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xb0c8c3…
10-18 09:51:47	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xa2ab67…
10-18 09:29:06	Solana Up or Down - October 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	57¢	$3	0xd02b3d…
10-18 09:25:21	Will Manchester United WFC win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x00694a…
10-18 08:43:26	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 08:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xbb9f7c…
10-18 07:21:02	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-18 07:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x756d0d…
10-18 07:20:11	Will Caracas FC win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x30a78e…
10-18 07:13:48	Solana Up or Down - October 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	52¢	$3	0x26a26c…
10-18 06:59:29	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-18 06:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0x490def…
10-18 06:32:11	Will Nordic United FC win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x3ed1b3…
10-18 06:24:41	Will Manta FC win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x7cb3c6…
10-18 06:12:48	Will Guandong GZ-Power FC win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x4aa4b6…
10-18 05:59:26	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 18?	No	BUY	4	60¢	$2	0xa3d7a7…
10-18 05:51:54	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x0e8eb1…
10-18 05:12:30	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 05:10 UTC	Down	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0xb038e4…
10-18 05:11:23	XRP Up or Down - October 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xc95ad5…
10-18 05:05:09	Solana Up or Down - October 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x2f9d75…
10-18 04:57:21	Solana Up or Down - October 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x9ca15e…
10-18 04:44:18	Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xf17712…
10-18 04:36:05	Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xe0da02…
10-18 04:26:11	XRP Up or Down - October 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x8c68c5…
10-18 04:21:47	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 04:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x197889…
10-18 04:16:33	Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x543312…
10-18 00:37:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x3c3d0a…
10-17 23:57:03	Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-10-17?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x719c7a…
10-17 23:35:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xf19196…