Naive-Conviction — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$556

Unrealized P&L

-$25

Hit rate

65.4%

Resolved

271

Trades

437

lifetime

Volume

$6.58K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

$191

5 positions

First seen

2026-04-07

last 11-04 07:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 94 days

Categories

Other

95% 60% +$538

Sports

3% 33% -$17

Politics

2% 100% +$35

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
CF Montréal vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 3.5	Under		+91	$50	60¢	$54	+$4	11-04 07:45
FC Cincinnati vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5	Under		+89	$50	56¢	$50	+$0	11-04 07:48
Austin FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5	Under		+93	$50	48¢	$44	-$6	11-04 07:47
New York Red Bulls vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5	Under	—	+94	$50	44¢	$42	-$8	11-04 07:47
Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat?	Yes		+25	$16	1¢	$0	-$16	11-02 18:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?	12	$127	135	+135	No	+$8	05-05 13:14
Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5)	1	$100	139	+139	Leeds United FC	+$39	05-10 22:24
ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 total 3pt5	1	$99	211	+211	Under	+$112	04-07 16:02
Named storm forms before hurricane season?	7	$93	120	+120	No	+$27	05-14 12:23
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	2	$80	150	+150	No	-$80	06-25 06:22
Will Angela Merkel be the next President of Germany?	1	$77	85	+85	open	—	10-13 09:38
Will a hurricane form by May 31?	7	$71	74	+74	No	+$3	05-14 17:58
fifwc aus tur 2026 06 14 spread away 1pt5	1	$68	100	+100	Australia	+$32	06-14 00:49
New York Red Bulls vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 4.5	1	$64	100	+100	Under	+$36	10-21 07:20
fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 corners total 8pt5	1	$63	100	+100	Over	+$37	07-04 06:54
fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 corners total 9pt5	1	$62	100	+100	Over	-$62	07-04 06:55
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	1	$61	100	+100	Yes	+$39	06-14 00:49
fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 corners total 7pt5	1	$61	100	+100	Over	+$39	07-04 06:56
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	2	$60	100	+100	Saudi Arabia	+$40	06-15 06:26
fifwc bih qat 2026 06 24 total 2pt5	2	$60	100	+100	Over	+$40	06-24 14:18
fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 corners total 9pt5	1	$59	100	+100	Over	-$59	07-04 06:52
fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 total 2pt5	1	$59	100	+100	Over	+$41	06-25 06:22
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	2	$56	100	+100	Yes	+$44	06-19 08:11
FC Dallas vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5	2	$56	100	+100	Under	+$44	10-22 13:37
fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 corners total 9pt5	1	$54	100	+100	Under	-$54	07-06 16:15
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	1	$54	100	+100	Yes	+$46	07-01 09:12
fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 spread home 1pt5	6	$50	75	+75	Morocco	+$25	06-12 00:21
Austin FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5	1	$50	93	+93	open	—	11-04 07:47
CF Montréal vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 3.5	2	$50	91	+91	open	—	11-04 07:45
Spread: SG Dynamo Dresden (-1.5)	1	$50	68	+68	SG Dynamo Dresden	-$50	11-04 07:49
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	2	$50	100	+100	No	-$50	06-16 00:55
FC Cincinnati vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5	1	$50	89	+89	open	—	11-04 07:48
New York Red Bulls vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5	1	$50	94	+94	open	—	11-04 07:47
Hansa Rostock vs. SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach: O/U 2.5	1	$50	73	+73	Over	+$23	11-04 07:52
Spread: VfL Bochum (-1.5)	1	$50	69	+69	open	—	11-04 07:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 07:52:13	Hansa Rostock vs. SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	73	69¢	$50	0x2db4a6…
11-04 07:51:06	Spread: VfL Bochum (-1.5)	Karlsruher SC	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0xc78286…
11-04 07:50:24	Will VfL Osnabrück win on 2026-11-07?	Yes	BUY	68	37¢	$25	0x70d108…
11-04 07:50:01	Spread: Eintracht Braunschweig (-1.5)	FC Energie Cottbus	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0x865d11…
11-04 07:49:37	Spread: SG Dynamo Dresden (-1.5)	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0x9d98a6…
11-04 07:48:51	FC Cincinnati vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	89	56¢	$50	0x661881…
11-04 07:47:54	New York Red Bulls vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0xa8da68…
11-04 07:47:18	Austin FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	93	54¢	$50	0xa50602…
11-04 07:45:55	CF Montréal vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0xf65325…
11-04 07:45:21	CF Montréal vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x63dd14…
11-03 19:37:10	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0xe835c2…
11-03 19:36:43	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xa47f2d…
11-03 16:18:46	Spread: AEK Athens (-2.5)	APO Levadiakos FC	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0x253693…
11-03 16:16:27	Aris Thessaloniki vs. Panaitolikos Agrinio: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x1ce9f9…
11-03 16:16:24	Aris Thessaloniki vs. Panaitolikos Agrinio: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	18	45¢	$8	0xb0d0da…
11-03 09:24:21	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	75¢	$19	0x355c0a…
11-03 09:22:43	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	64¢	$16	0xe18ed1…
11-03 08:50:13	Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x58caa3…
11-02 18:01:13	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	88¢	$22	0x45ed50…
11-02 18:00:03	Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	25	64¢	$16	0x8dce3c…
11-02 17:58:12	Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x46a5bb…
11-02 17:56:55	Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-06 House seat?	Yes	BUY	25	90¢	$22	0x466e56…
10-28 09:21:10	Spread: MSV Duisburg (-1.5)	VfB Stuttgart II	BUY	45	59¢	$27	0x35b2ab…
10-28 07:19:04	Spread: Olympiacos Piraeus (-1.5)	AE Kifisia FC	BUY	0	62¢	$0	0xf3e09e…
10-28 07:18:59	Spread: Olympiacos Piraeus (-1.5)	AE Kifisia FC	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xeab519…
10-28 07:18:53	PAE PS Kalamata vs. POT Iraklis: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0x599e7f…
10-28 07:18:28	Spread: Olympiacos Piraeus (-1.5)	AE Kifisia FC	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x70ed58…
10-28 07:18:16	AE Kifisia FC vs. Olympiacos Piraeus: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	25	53¢	$13	0x54442b…
10-28 07:17:29	Spread: MSV Duisburg (-1.5)	VfB Stuttgart II	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xce3402…
10-28 07:16:17	Minnesota United FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0xd8c4c7…
10-28 07:15:49	Charlotte FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0xe17f5d…
10-28 07:15:35	Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)	FC Cincinnati	BUY	25	57¢	$14	0xb6c504…
10-28 07:15:04	SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0x8ae2f3…
10-28 07:14:29	Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Eintracht Braunschweig end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x12e54c…
10-28 07:14:20	Will Eintracht Braunschweig win on 2026-10-30?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xd31aa1…
10-28 07:14:10	Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-1.5)	Eintracht Braunschweig	BUY	25	72¢	$18	0x98e9ca…
10-28 07:11:02	Will FC Energie Cottbus win on 2026-10-30?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x786560…
10-28 07:10:41	Spread: VfL Bochum (-1.5)	FC Energie Cottbus	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0x17b96a…
10-22 16:46:12	Spread: Olympiacos Piraeus (-2.5)	PAE PS Kalamata	BUY	32	59¢	$19	0x58ac0f…
10-22 16:46:11	Spread: Olympiacos Piraeus (-2.5)	PAE PS Kalamata	BUY	13	59¢	$7	0x5e309a…
10-22 16:45:23	Spread: AEK Athens (-2.5)	Panaitolikos Agrinio	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xdb45f5…
10-22 16:45:23	Spread: AEK Athens (-2.5)	Panaitolikos Agrinio	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0x6686f1…
10-22 16:45:21	Spread: AEK Athens (-2.5)	Panaitolikos Agrinio	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x616163…
10-22 16:45:20	Spread: AEK Athens (-2.5)	Panaitolikos Agrinio	BUY	30	58¢	$18	0xf5dbaa…
10-22 16:45:06	Spread: AEK Athens (-2.5)	Panaitolikos Agrinio	BUY	35	59¢	$21	0xfcb295…
10-22 16:44:53	Spread: Olympiacos Piraeus (-2.5)	PAE PS Kalamata	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xac0f65…
10-22 16:44:48	Spread: AEK Athens (-2.5)	Panaitolikos Agrinio	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xfb32d7…
10-22 16:44:02	Spread: 1. FC Saarbrucken (-1.5)	TSV Havelse	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x7b845a…
10-22 16:44:02	Spread: 1. FC Saarbrucken (-1.5)	TSV Havelse	BUY	0	66¢	$0	0x6d896e…
10-22 16:43:59	Spread: 1. FC Saarbrucken (-1.5)	TSV Havelse	BUY	21	66¢	$14	0x7c1900…
10-22 16:43:59	Spread: 1. FC Saarbrucken (-1.5)	TSV Havelse	BUY	4	66¢	$2	0x27682f…
10-22 16:42:59	Spread: 1. FC Saarbrucken (-1.5)	TSV Havelse	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xd2bddb…
10-22 16:42:45	Will VfB Stuttgart II win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	15	30¢	$4	0xd9f815…
10-22 16:42:35	Spread: Alemannia Aachen (-1.5)	VfB Stuttgart II	BUY	25	77¢	$19	0x5e77ee…
10-22 16:41:41	Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hannover 96: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	35	58¢	$20	0x0f5396…
10-22 16:41:15	Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)	SV Darmstadt 98	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x3b7c0c…
10-22 16:40:30	Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-10-23?	Yes	BUY	15	30¢	$4	0x177993…
10-22 13:37:29	FC Dallas vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	95	56¢	$53	0x308d01…
10-21 07:20:35	New York Red Bulls vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0xeaabd6…
10-21 07:20:08	FC Dallas vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x8ba31f…
10-21 06:33:59	Columbus Crew vs. Toronto FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	25	58¢	$14	0x4950fa…
10-21 06:26:30	CF Montréal vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	25	64¢	$16	0xb09c6e…
10-21 06:25:35	FC Cincinnati vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	25	45¢	$11	0x86bd91…
10-13 09:38:31	Will Angela Merkel be the next President of Germany?	No	BUY	85	91¢	$77	0x70223c…
10-07 12:08:58	Atlanta United FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0xe867c2…
10-07 10:55:24	Sporting Kansas City vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xe6402b…
10-07 08:54:53	Atlanta United FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xaeffc9…
10-07 08:54:51	Atlanta United FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0xf9e520…
10-07 08:47:05	Orlando City SC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0x9ca613…
10-07 08:46:57	Sporting Kansas City vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x80107c…
10-07 08:46:45	New York Red Bulls vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	25	54¢	$14	0x32979b…
10-07 08:46:23	Atlanta United FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x53300c…
10-07 08:45:30	Inter Miami CF vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	25	66¢	$16	0x6dbe35…
10-07 08:44:47	Toronto FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0xcbc95a…
09-22 09:36:25	New York Red Bulls vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0x922afc…
09-22 09:35:30	CF Montréal vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0xa2246a…
09-19 06:47:46	FC Schalke 04 vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	25	58¢	$14	0xca3020…
09-19 06:47:28	Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0x7d6316…
09-19 06:47:13	Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	12	69¢	$8	0x4b68ea…
09-19 06:46:46	SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0x7c80bd…
09-14 08:57:33	Nashville SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	50	63¢	$32	0xae10b6…
09-14 08:56:31	Houston Dynamo vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	50	59¢	$30	0x5afe0c…
09-14 08:56:03	Minnesota United FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	50	59¢	$30	0xe07172…
09-05 17:06:24	Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-09-05?	Yes	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0x3e9881…
09-05 15:58:22	Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-09-05?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xa30c52…
09-05 12:39:18	Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-09-05?	Yes	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x49b6c0…
09-05 07:40:43	Will Real Salt Lake vs. Los Angeles FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0x5f81de…
09-05 07:40:34	Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-09-05?	Yes	BUY	36	34¢	$12	0xaf57b6…
09-01 09:42:09	D.C. United SC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	25	69¢	$17	0xf56727…
09-01 09:41:39	FC Cincinnati vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0x50689e…
09-01 09:41:12	New York City FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	25	68¢	$17	0xf256c3…
09-01 09:40:43	Orlando City SC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	25	52¢	$13	0xbff3cd…
08-25 06:49:36	Atlanta United FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	25	63¢	$16	0xe43292…
08-25 06:49:21	Atlanta United FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	25	42¢	$10	0x79046d…
08-25 06:48:40	D.C. United SC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	25	46¢	$12	0x5938de…
08-25 06:48:13	Sporting Kansas City vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0x960941…
08-25 06:47:19	Houston Dynamo vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0x97c176…
08-21 04:39:43	mls atl skc 2026 08 23 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0xfaa7a4…
08-21 04:39:27	mls ner nyc 2026 08 23 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	25	44¢	$11	0xce0c1b…
08-21 04:38:57	mls laf por 2026 08 22 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0xf4f4cb…