Ill-Fry — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$267

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.2%

Resolved (90d)

944

Trades (90d)

1,280

4,362 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$28.3K

$78.3K lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-16

last 10-30 16:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 249 days

Categories

Other

97% 94% -$140

Crypto

3% 62% -$76

Politics

0% 44% -$39

Sports

0% 100% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 50 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the price of bitcoin be less than 78000 on february 2	20	$509	330	330	+0	No	+$4	02-02 16:54
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	25	$321	1,193	223	+970	No	-$31	06-03 23:59
solana up or down february 3 6am et	6	$287	153	153	+0	Up	+$1	02-03 11:59
bitcoin up or down on february 19	2	$270	137	137	+0	Down	+$2	02-19 16:50
bitcoin up or down on january 28	6	$228	123	123	+0	Up	+$3	01-28 16:20
spx opens up or down on february 6 2026	3	$210	137	137	+0	Up	+$10	02-06 13:28
spx up or down on february 18 2026	3	$205	130	130	+0	Up	+$5	02-18 15:01
spx up or down on february 5 2026	7	$205	117	117	+0	Down	+$3	02-05 17:34
will the price of bitcoin be less than 70000 on february 9	3	$203	113	113	+0	No	+$3	02-09 15:25
bitcoin above 66k on february 18	2	$202	104	104	+0	Yes	+$2	02-18 15:37
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C or higher on May 27?	4	$180	91	91	+0	No	+$1	05-27 22:03
highest temperature in toronto on april 19 2026 10corhigher	6	$167	91	91	+0	No	+$7	04-19 23:40
highest temperature in toronto on april 10 2026 10c	6	$164	93	92	+0	No	-$1	04-10 13:46
highest temperature in paris on april 11 2026 20c	3	$162	82	82	+0	No	+$2	04-11 16:08
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on August 25?	15	$159	101	101	+0	Yes	+$1	08-25 16:45
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 31?	9	$158	85	85	+0	No	+$3	08-31 14:53
bitcoin up or down on january 30	2	$156	80	80	+0	Down	+$3	01-30 17:23
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 27?	3	$155	86	86	+0	No	+$17	07-27 13:59
spx opens up or down on february 20 2026	2	$136	154	154	+0	Down	-$136	02-20 14:22
highest temperature in seoul on april 12 2026 22c	7	$134	68	68	+0	No	+$2	04-12 09:37
spx up or down on february 19 2026	4	$133	0	212	-212	Down	-$78	02-19 13:31
highest temperature in seoul on april 13 2026 23corhigher	7	$131	69	68	+0	No	+$6	04-13 15:13
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 27?	3	$130	66	66	+0	No	+$1	05-27 22:03
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 84°F or higher on August 31?	7	$125	102	25	+76	No	+$2	08-31 17:02
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 96°F or higher on September 9?	7	$113	118	0	+118	No	+$5	09-09 19:50
highest temperature in seoul on april 14 2026 24corhigher	8	$113	91	91	+0	No	-$52	04-14 02:58
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on September 9?	3	$110	113	0	+113	No	+$3	09-09 04:00
highest temperature in toronto on april 15 2026 23c	4	$109	55	55	+0	No	+$1	04-15 16:57
will antnio jos seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	2	$103	53	53	+0	Yes	+$3	01-19 09:26
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13?	9	$102	115	0	+115	No	+$13	05-12 15:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 16:00:46	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 11°C on November 1?	No	BUY	27	88¢	$24	0xd5e203…
10-29 16:01:53	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 10°C on October 31?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x5911a0…
10-29 16:01:01	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 30?	No	BUY	22	87¢	$20	0x691b1d…
10-29 05:00:44	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on October 30?	No	BUY	12	79¢	$10	0x7880c5…
10-29 05:00:41	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on October 30?	No	BUY	47	62¢	$29	0xa37f67…
10-28 23:41:56	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on October 29?	No	BUY	36	82¢	$29	0x76447e…
10-28 23:41:01	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 14°C on October 29?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xddb863…
10-28 00:02:51	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on October 29?	No	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0x01c0f5…
10-28 00:00:33	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on October 29?	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0xef2218…
10-27 23:49:32	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on October 27?	No	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x567b0d…
10-27 23:45:44	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on October 27?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x937830…
10-27 05:01:41	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on October 27?	No	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0x2e8dc9…
10-27 05:01:41	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on October 27?	No	BUY	16	91¢	$15	0x260afe…
10-25 19:04:54	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C on October 26?	No	SELL	26	48¢	$13	0x0d5a03…
10-25 00:44:30	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on October 25?	No	SELL	26	88¢	$23	0xd27e23…
10-25 00:44:11	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on October 25?	No	SELL	58	62¢	$36	0xd42bbe…
10-24 23:40:24	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on October 25?	No	SELL	44	77¢	$34	0xa0e388…
10-24 15:00:47	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C on October 26?	No	BUY	26	94¢	$25	0xc85840…
10-24 15:00:24	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on October 25?	No	BUY	58	67¢	$39	0xa4fab1…
10-24 15:00:20	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 25?	No	BUY	42	93¢	$39	0xf1d7da…
10-24 06:00:23	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on October 25?	No	BUY	44	88¢	$39	0xd5231f…
10-24 03:00:59	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on October 25?	No	BUY	41	96¢	$40	0xd6015f…
10-24 03:00:36	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on October 25?	No	BUY	52	94¢	$49	0x965c73…
10-23 15:01:56	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on October 24?	No	BUY	16	91¢	$15	0xe9f7c4…
10-23 15:01:17	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 25?	No	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0x76357c…
10-23 15:00:51	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on October 24?	No	BUY	59	66¢	$39	0xe1a892…
10-23 15:00:47	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 24?	No	BUY	43	91¢	$39	0xe27551…
10-22 15:55:38	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on October 24?	No	SELL	40	58¢	$23	0x185a86…
10-22 15:00:54	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on October 24?	No	BUY	40	61¢	$24	0x25cabc…
10-22 15:00:44	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 24?	No	BUY	26	93¢	$24	0x38abc3…
10-22 14:43:35	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on October 23?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x51eead…
10-22 14:43:30	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on October 23?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x164fcc…
10-22 14:43:11	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on October 23?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$5	0xb23098…
10-22 14:39:12	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 23?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x0cfe5a…
10-21 04:00:44	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on October 22?	No	BUY	32	92¢	$30	0xde65ce…
10-21 00:00:33	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on October 21?	No	BUY	22	88¢	$20	0x705f20…
10-20 08:06:55	Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on October 19?	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x3dc0bb…
10-20 04:00:36	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 21?	No	BUY	32	92¢	$29	0x087eb9…
10-19 15:01:11	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on October 20?	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x650999…
10-19 15:00:54	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 20?	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0xa6d4c1…
10-19 15:00:35	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C on October 21?	No	BUY	26	94¢	$24	0x20d1eb…
10-19 06:00:35	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on October 20?	No	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0x957394…
10-19 05:26:59	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or higher on October 19?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x22e601…
10-18 16:47:08	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on October 18?	No	BUY	33	99¢	$32	0xfe8b04…
10-18 16:41:09	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on October 18?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x2cedde…
10-18 15:01:15	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on October 20?	No	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x7344e5…
10-18 15:01:11	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 12°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$10	0xc4ed03…
10-18 14:28:50	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on October 18?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x010329…
10-18 10:46:23	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on October 18?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x38aade…
10-18 09:36:00	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on October 18?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x87af69…
10-18 09:30:09	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 18?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x3ca079…
10-18 09:29:05	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 18?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x7a462c…
10-18 08:21:26	Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on October 18?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$22	0x6ad7e3…
10-18 07:59:18	Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on October 18?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x82475b…
10-18 06:06:17	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C or higher on October 19?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xc5e8d7…
10-18 04:52:08	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 19?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x63fbba…
10-18 02:39:03	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C or higher on October 18?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x6ebdbe…
10-18 02:38:51	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C or higher on October 18?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x79d5a6…
10-18 02:38:15	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C or higher on October 18?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x3f9b21…
10-18 02:37:23	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C or higher on October 18?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x9ba24d…
10-18 02:16:08	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on October 18?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0xe157da…
10-18 00:01:14	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 18?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xbd7683…
10-17 15:34:59	highest temperature in beijing on october 18 2026 16c	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x8b53b8…
10-17 15:03:03	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on October 18?	No	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0x80651b…
10-17 15:02:09	highest temperature in shenzhen on october 18 2026 30c	No	BUY	23	75¢	$17	0x551939…
10-17 14:07:38	highest temperature in los angeles on october 18 2026 76 77f	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x92ff42…
10-17 14:07:38	highest temperature in los angeles on october 18 2026 78 79f	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x183cb8…
10-17 12:42:02	highest temperature in los angeles on october 18 2026 92forhigher	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x140c80…
10-17 12:35:44	highest temperature in seattle on october 18 2026 50 51f	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x33328a…
10-17 10:14:36	highest temperature in seattle on october 18 2026 54 55f	No	BUY	36	97¢	$35	0xcae352…
10-17 08:28:42	highest temperature in chicago on october 18 2026 54 55f	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xe04e8c…
10-17 08:27:05	highest temperature in chicago on october 18 2026 56 57f	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x1c0326…
10-17 08:18:15	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on October 17?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0xc9fa23…
10-17 06:05:44	highest temperature in los angeles on october 17 2026 96forhigher	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x677ccc…
10-17 06:01:38	highest temperature in san francisco on october 18 2026 62 63f	No	BUY	56	87¢	$49	0x324694…
10-17 03:11:50	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on October 17?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x177449…
10-17 03:01:15	highest temperature in atlanta on october 18 2026 60 61f	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0xe16ceb…
10-17 03:01:15	highest temperature in atlanta on october 18 2026 60 61f	No	BUY	16	96¢	$16	0x0b222a…
10-17 00:01:14	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on October 17?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x4ddd0b…
10-16 15:03:10	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on October 18?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xbf9cf7…
10-16 15:03:06	highest temperature in beijing on october 18 2026 16c	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x46dba7…
10-16 15:01:15	highest temperature in seoul on october 18 2026 19c	No	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0x2ede85…
10-16 06:05:48	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 100°F or higher on October 16?	No	BUY	52	95¢	$50	0x14df7c…
10-16 06:01:25	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on October 17?	No	BUY	31	98¢	$31	0x3f7daf…
10-16 04:03:22	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on October 16?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x0d2ac7…
10-16 04:03:18	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 16?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xbe52af…
10-16 04:01:48	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on October 16?	No	BUY	31	95¢	$30	0x3dd5e5…
10-16 04:01:09	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on October 16?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xc958ea…
10-16 04:00:34	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on October 16?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x1017aa…
10-16 04:00:30	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on October 16?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$40	0xf756b5…
10-16 03:01:12	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on October 17?	No	BUY	41	96¢	$40	0x68d1ac…
10-16 01:30:31	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on October 16?	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0xcd4a9d…
10-16 00:51:09	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on October 16?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x6d1b15…
10-16 00:01:01	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on October 16?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x160f14…
10-15 19:50:32	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on October 16?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x2da3fc…
10-15 19:50:28	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on October 16?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x27026d…
10-15 19:50:23	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on October 16?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2d5e02…
10-15 17:53:56	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C or higher on October 16?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x0d4142…
10-15 17:52:22	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C or higher on October 16?	No	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x43842d…
10-15 17:52:13	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on October 16?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0xb3adcc…